Case-Shiller Home Prices November 2014

25 11 2014

Light At The End of the Tunnel...

The light at the end of the tunnel is not a train as the Case-Shiller Home Price Press Release seems to state.  “The overall trend in home price increases continues to slow down…, said David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

What he didn’t say after that headline with the same emphasis, is that only the National Index posted a negative change for September -0.1%.  Nine cities in the 20-city composite posted negative numbers for the month-to-month change and 11 posted flat or positive numbers–the worst was -0.4% for D.C. and the best was 0.6% for Miami and Charlotte.light at end of tunnel is the sun

Portland, Oregon was Number 5 on the list for the 1-Year Change of 6.7% below Dallas 7.4% and above Denver 6.2% and Seattle 6.0%.  That is pretty impressive news Portland!

The scary “deceleration” word they used up-front that had us holding a match to our wallets, eventually became “stable to slightly better” for housing in 2015 at the end of the report.

If this was school, our mid-term grade sounds more like a C+ or B- with lots of room to improve next semester. A little more to the left…Puncheon's missed goal

Portland, Oregon as of November 25, 2014

All Active Homes, Pending and Sold Homes 30 days back from Today.

Inventory:                     2.3 Months

Average Sale Price:     $339,217 (up $3617 up 1% from last month)

Median Sale Price:       $293,500 (up $4500 up 1.5% from last month)

Days on The Market:   59 Days (down 6 days from last month)

# Active                         4,885 total overall

# Pending                      2,841 (361 more than Oct.)

# Sold                             2,094 (393 less than Oct.)

Big news for Portland that ALL realtors are talking about right now–  Inventory!  It is getting worse at 2.3 Months of Inventory if not another house came on the market we would run out in 2.3 months!  Just like Fall ’04 and ’05.

Supply and demand…supply goes down and demand goes up…prices go up.  It is simple business.  The light on the other side of the tunnel is the sun and the grass is greener there.

pastures

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst





October 2014 Portland Market Action

14 10 2014
Decent Waters Ahead

Decent Waters Ahead

The conversation recently seems to be leaning on a small downturn for the numbers in September 2014. Yes, we dropped from month-to-month, which only seems reasonable for the season rolling into the Fall and Winter. So far this year, we have appreciated 7.4% for the average sales price and 7.5% for the median.

In looking back at August 2007, when we had a peak of average sales price at $366,900 and the median was $300,000, the inventory level was 6.2 months versus now at 3.1 months. That 3.1 number is closely associated with May of 2006. The closest volume this current report reflects is the pending sales numbers at 2,551—August 2007 there were 2,447! The big difference is the volume of year-to-date homes available for sale…

Balanced Market

Balanced Market

August 2007

New listings        Pending Sales                 Closed Sales
43,567                  21,339                               20,607

September 2014
New listings       Pending Sales                   Closed Sales
31,111                   22,324                                20,652

That is why we are at 3.1 months of inventory.

Compared to Last Year
Inventory down to 3.1 months.
Closed sales up 10.2%.
Pending sales up 15%
New listings up 6.1%.
Average Sales Price up 6.6%
Median Sales Price 5.4%

Compared to Last Month

Closed sales down 8%
Pending sales down 5.7%
New listings down 13.4%
Average Sales Price Down 0.6%
Median Sales Price Down 2.0%

 

The Full Report Here:

October 14, 2014 RMLS Market Action

The waters ahead look more like a normal marketplace for all...

The waters ahead look more like a normal marketplace for all…

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Anaylst





April 2014 RMLS Market Action

13 04 2014

Peaceful Community

 

It is time to revisit supply and demand again to answer a question.  (I covered it 2 months ago).  If supply is down and demand is up, generally the price goes up.  But, in Portland that was barely the case this past month when the average sales price went up 0.8% and the median sales price dropped to -0.5%.

 

What happened?Supply and Demand

In August 2005, the price went up month-to-month by 8.8% and we had really low inventory—1.6 months.  We currently have 3.1 months which is almost twice that but still extremely low.

 

As far as the volume of sales, the April Market Action showed only about 100 more listings and 100 more sales for the August 2005 time period in the West Portland Area.  That is not much when the overall number for that area is nearly 600 new listings in 2014.  For the entire Portland Metro Area we have a much bigger picture and that is where the difference is.  In the current 2014 report, 3090 new listings came on the market and 1857 sales came off the market.  In August 2005, 4779 new listings came on the market and 3690 sold.

 

Smaller pond, less fish.  The economy has taken 50% of the consumers out of the home buying and selling business.  That may drive up some prices, but not all.  Other buyers and sellers, are hanging out in their slice of America and simply not participating.

Cash Buyer Moves In...

Cash Buyer Moves In…

 

Compared to Last Year

Inventory down to 3.1 months.

Closed sales up -4.0%.

Pending sales up -3.6%

New listings up 2.9%.

Average Sales Price up 9.7%

Median Sales Price up 11%

 

Compared to Last Month

Closed sales up 26.6%

Pending sales up 37.1%

New listings up 31.3%

Average Sales Price up 0.8%

Median Sales Price down -0.5%

 

The Perfect Marketplace

The Perfect Marketplace

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not sure whether it is best to be the one in the water or on land in this market…

In or out

 

 

View The Full Report Here  April 2014 RMLS Market Action

 

Dustin Miller

Broker / Market Analyst





Case-Shiller Home Prices February 25, 2014 Report

25 02 2014

‘Tis the season…

When we start going down month-to-month, we as a nation in the marketplace start talking about how the year ended versus the previous year.

Winter Weather 'Tis the season

 “In December, the 10-City Composite remained relatively unchanged while the 20-City Composite showed its second consecutive monthly decline of 0.1%. Year-over-year, the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted gains of 13.6% and 13.4%, approximately 30 basis points lower than their November rates,” the report stated.

“The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index ended its best year since 2005,” said David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices… Recent economic reports suggest a bleaker picture for housing. Existing home sales fell 5.1% in January from December to the slowest pace in over a year. Permits for new residential construction and housing starts were both down and below expectations. Some of the weakness reflects the cold weather in much of the country. However, higher home prices and mortgage rates are taking a toll on affordability…but bank lending standards remain strict.”

For the composites nationally, the report states that prices are back to Spring 2004 levels but Portland is fairing much better in the report where prices are closer to levels in the fall of 2005.

Another high point in the report for Portland, Oregon is the seasonally adjusted averages where they are negative for the last two reports for month-to-month numbers (-0.1 and -0.3), but when seasonally adjusted they post positive numbers of 0.7% for both reports.

home snowAll in all Portland is still much better off going back to its old self of gradually climbing up in prices and not rapidly fluctuating up and down.  I expect the “season” to sway prices up once again as we move toward spring 2014.

At least our season is shut down like the Great Lakes states too.  They pretty much have to wait for late spring to buy and sell houses!

For sale

The Full Report Here: The February 25 CS Report

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst





PORTLAND MARKET ACTION FEBRUARY 14, 2014

17 02 2014

Inventory is still going down and now folks are getting a little restless. Since I covered inventory last month, I thought I would dig a little deeper on supply and demand. The question I asked is “What would happen if we took all the listings which took over 200 days on the market to sell?” After all, two houses sold over 1000 days on the market and a bunch under that. Just as a $1M listing can skew average sales price, these sluggish listings can skew the “actual” days on the market.

Tickle Me Elmo Demand 1996

What I found out is what I thought, the numbers would increase. By eliminating the 121 pending sales and 69 closed sales which took 200 days or longer to sell, these are the results for the last 30 days as of February 16 (which adds 2 weeks to the results):

Pending sales
Total = 1853
Average Sales Price = $319,889
Days on the Market = 43

Closed Sales
Total = 1112
Average Sales Price = $327,508                                 Days on the Market = 53

Compare these numbers to the February RMLS Market Action

Average Sales Price = $10,308 or 3.25% more
Days on the Market = 44.33% more

That is what I thought might be the case after talking with my fellow brokers throughout the area. The average market time for a property really feels like 53 more than it does 96 and even that is a stretch for our emotions. It feels like Alec Baldwin in breathing down our necks…

glengarry

The bottom line for all you boomers out there looking to downsize, get your house on the market now. The spring is an unknown which could work against you. You have buyers now who want in your doors.  More inventory hitting the market at the same time, drives prices down.  The waiting place for them is really rough.

the_waiting_place

Compared to Last Year
Inventory down to 4.1 months.
Closed sales up 3.9%.
Pending sales up 6.3%
New listings up 5.9%.
Average Sales Price up 10.3%
Median Sales Price up 6.9%

Compared to Last Month
Closed sales down 21.7%
Pending sales up 36.6%
New listings up 93.8%
Average Sales Price up 2.8%
Median Sales Price down 0.9%

View The Full Report Here: Portland Market Action February 2014

Dustin Miller

Broker / Market Analyst





Case-Shiller Home Prices January 28, 2013 Report

28 01 2014
The Deschutes River Canyon

The Deschutes River Canyon

We keep going up and up, maybe just a little bit, but we keep going up.

“Home prices continue to rise despite last May’s jump in mortgage interest rates. Mortgage applications for purchase were up in recent weeks confirming home builders’ optimism shown by the NAHB survey. ..While housing will make further contributions to the economy in 2014, the pace of price gains is likely to slow during the year,” said David Blitzer, Chairman of the S&P Case-Shiller Indices.

This means they are trending in a positive direction headed into winter (this report covers November 2013), which typically is a slow time of the season.  What is appears to be trending toward is a steady up and down this winter by small percentages here and there.  It is nothing to freak out about;Freaking out and, not worth getting overly excited about as well.  It appears we are learning our lesson from the last time prices began to increase dramatically.  This is a typical plateau for the nation.  Perhaps, we may stay here throughout 2014.  It is hard to say with the factors of inflation, mortgage rates, jobs and the economy.

 

Portland is at May 2005 levels for this report.  We also hit this number in January 2010 when the market was declining and again between February and March 2013. For this report, Portland is down for the month of -0.3% but up for the year of 12.5%.  This is the middle of the pack for the nation between the low of 6% for New York and the high of 27.3% for Las Vegas.

 

Once again, stay calm.  This report is if anything very encouraging for near winter numbers.  The increases are not hurling us toward another bubble.

 

The Full Report Here: The January 28 CS Report

cat calm

 

 

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst

 (A cat photo to sooth the soul)

 





January 2014 RMLS MARKET ACTION

17 01 2014

inventory Inventory…It really wasn’t a term we used much as brokers 15 years ago.  In fact, the RMLS Market Action did not start publishing the inventory until 2001.

That being said, it is a way to use the concept of supply and demand in a general sense.  If there is high demand with low supply, prices will go up.  If there is high demand with high supply, then prices go down.  If there is low demand and high supply, prices go down.  If there is low demand and low supply prices go down a little slower.

inventory 2

The good thing for us is that this is pretty typical prior to 2006 when the climb in winter inventory numbers started to hit the map.  We have been here many times before and can chaulk it up as a seasonal thing.  Most low numbers in the winter were all relative to the markets they experienced the year before going all the way back to 2001.  This year is no different—inventory may be a cause we can look to for answers as well as they previous 12 months in order to chart the waters ahead.

ship

 

 

Compared to Last Year

Inventory down to 3.2 months.

Closed sales up 1.3%.

Pending sales up 7.2%

New listings up 3.7%.

Average Sales Price up 12.9%

Median Sales Price up 12.8%

 

Compared to Last Month

Closed sales down 2.1%

Pending sales down  18.8%

New listings down 32.5%

Average Sales Price up -3.0%

Median Sales Price up -1.0%

 

 

 

View The Full Report Here: RMLS Market Action Portland Metro Jan 15, 2014

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/ Market Analyst








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