April 2014 RMLS Market Action

13 04 2014

Peaceful Community

 

It is time to revisit supply and demand again to answer a question.  (I covered it 2 months ago).  If supply is down and demand is up, generally the price goes up.  But, in Portland that was barely the case this past month when the average sales price went up 0.8% and the median sales price dropped to -0.5%.

 

What happened?Supply and Demand

In August 2005, the price went up month-to-month by 8.8% and we had really low inventory—1.6 months.  We currently have 3.1 months which is almost twice that but still extremely low.

 

As far as the volume of sales, the April Market Action showed only about 100 more listings and 100 more sales for the August 2005 time period in the West Portland Area.  That is not much when the overall number for that area is nearly 600 new listings in 2014.  For the entire Portland Metro Area we have a much bigger picture and that is where the difference is.  In the current 2014 report, 3090 new listings came on the market and 1857 sales came off the market.  In August 2005, 4779 new listings came on the market and 3690 sold.

 

Smaller pond, less fish.  The economy has taken 50% of the consumers out of the home buying and selling business.  That may drive up some prices, but not all.  Other buyers and sellers, are hanging out in their slice of America and simply not participating.

Cash Buyer Moves In...

Cash Buyer Moves In…

 

Compared to Last Year

Inventory down to 3.1 months.

Closed sales up -4.0%.

Pending sales up -3.6%

New listings up 2.9%.

Average Sales Price up 9.7%

Median Sales Price up 11%

 

Compared to Last Month

Closed sales up 26.6%

Pending sales up 37.1%

New listings up 31.3%

Average Sales Price up 0.8%

Median Sales Price down -0.5%

 

The Perfect Marketplace

The Perfect Marketplace

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not sure whether it is best to be the one in the water or on land in this market…

In or out

 

 

View The Full Report Here  April 2014 RMLS Market Action

 

Dustin Miller

Broker / Market Analyst





Case-Shiller Home Prices February 25, 2014 Report

25 02 2014

‘Tis the season…

When we start going down month-to-month, we as a nation in the marketplace start talking about how the year ended versus the previous year.

Winter Weather 'Tis the season

 “In December, the 10-City Composite remained relatively unchanged while the 20-City Composite showed its second consecutive monthly decline of 0.1%. Year-over-year, the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted gains of 13.6% and 13.4%, approximately 30 basis points lower than their November rates,” the report stated.

“The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index ended its best year since 2005,” said David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices… Recent economic reports suggest a bleaker picture for housing. Existing home sales fell 5.1% in January from December to the slowest pace in over a year. Permits for new residential construction and housing starts were both down and below expectations. Some of the weakness reflects the cold weather in much of the country. However, higher home prices and mortgage rates are taking a toll on affordability…but bank lending standards remain strict.”

For the composites nationally, the report states that prices are back to Spring 2004 levels but Portland is fairing much better in the report where prices are closer to levels in the fall of 2005.

Another high point in the report for Portland, Oregon is the seasonally adjusted averages where they are negative for the last two reports for month-to-month numbers (-0.1 and -0.3), but when seasonally adjusted they post positive numbers of 0.7% for both reports.

home snowAll in all Portland is still much better off going back to its old self of gradually climbing up in prices and not rapidly fluctuating up and down.  I expect the “season” to sway prices up once again as we move toward spring 2014.

At least our season is shut down like the Great Lakes states too.  They pretty much have to wait for late spring to buy and sell houses!

For sale

The Full Report Here: The February 25 CS Report

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst





PORTLAND MARKET ACTION FEBRUARY 14, 2014

17 02 2014

Inventory is still going down and now folks are getting a little restless. Since I covered inventory last month, I thought I would dig a little deeper on supply and demand. The question I asked is “What would happen if we took all the listings which took over 200 days on the market to sell?” After all, two houses sold over 1000 days on the market and a bunch under that. Just as a $1M listing can skew average sales price, these sluggish listings can skew the “actual” days on the market.

Tickle Me Elmo Demand 1996

What I found out is what I thought, the numbers would increase. By eliminating the 121 pending sales and 69 closed sales which took 200 days or longer to sell, these are the results for the last 30 days as of February 16 (which adds 2 weeks to the results):

Pending sales
Total = 1853
Average Sales Price = $319,889
Days on the Market = 43

Closed Sales
Total = 1112
Average Sales Price = $327,508                                 Days on the Market = 53

Compare these numbers to the February RMLS Market Action

Average Sales Price = $10,308 or 3.25% more
Days on the Market = 44.33% more

That is what I thought might be the case after talking with my fellow brokers throughout the area. The average market time for a property really feels like 53 more than it does 96 and even that is a stretch for our emotions. It feels like Alec Baldwin in breathing down our necks…

glengarry

The bottom line for all you boomers out there looking to downsize, get your house on the market now. The spring is an unknown which could work against you. You have buyers now who want in your doors.  More inventory hitting the market at the same time, drives prices down.  The waiting place for them is really rough.

the_waiting_place

Compared to Last Year
Inventory down to 4.1 months.
Closed sales up 3.9%.
Pending sales up 6.3%
New listings up 5.9%.
Average Sales Price up 10.3%
Median Sales Price up 6.9%

Compared to Last Month
Closed sales down 21.7%
Pending sales up 36.6%
New listings up 93.8%
Average Sales Price up 2.8%
Median Sales Price down 0.9%

View The Full Report Here: Portland Market Action February 2014

Dustin Miller

Broker / Market Analyst





Case-Shiller Home Prices January 28, 2013 Report

28 01 2014
The Deschutes River Canyon

The Deschutes River Canyon

We keep going up and up, maybe just a little bit, but we keep going up.

“Home prices continue to rise despite last May’s jump in mortgage interest rates. Mortgage applications for purchase were up in recent weeks confirming home builders’ optimism shown by the NAHB survey. ..While housing will make further contributions to the economy in 2014, the pace of price gains is likely to slow during the year,” said David Blitzer, Chairman of the S&P Case-Shiller Indices.

This means they are trending in a positive direction headed into winter (this report covers November 2013), which typically is a slow time of the season.  What is appears to be trending toward is a steady up and down this winter by small percentages here and there.  It is nothing to freak out about;Freaking out and, not worth getting overly excited about as well.  It appears we are learning our lesson from the last time prices began to increase dramatically.  This is a typical plateau for the nation.  Perhaps, we may stay here throughout 2014.  It is hard to say with the factors of inflation, mortgage rates, jobs and the economy.

 

Portland is at May 2005 levels for this report.  We also hit this number in January 2010 when the market was declining and again between February and March 2013. For this report, Portland is down for the month of -0.3% but up for the year of 12.5%.  This is the middle of the pack for the nation between the low of 6% for New York and the high of 27.3% for Las Vegas.

 

Once again, stay calm.  This report is if anything very encouraging for near winter numbers.  The increases are not hurling us toward another bubble.

 

The Full Report Here: The January 28 CS Report

cat calm

 

 

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst

 (A cat photo to sooth the soul)

 





January 2014 RMLS MARKET ACTION

17 01 2014

inventory Inventory…It really wasn’t a term we used much as brokers 15 years ago.  In fact, the RMLS Market Action did not start publishing the inventory until 2001.

That being said, it is a way to use the concept of supply and demand in a general sense.  If there is high demand with low supply, prices will go up.  If there is high demand with high supply, then prices go down.  If there is low demand and high supply, prices go down.  If there is low demand and low supply prices go down a little slower.

inventory 2

The good thing for us is that this is pretty typical prior to 2006 when the climb in winter inventory numbers started to hit the map.  We have been here many times before and can chaulk it up as a seasonal thing.  Most low numbers in the winter were all relative to the markets they experienced the year before going all the way back to 2001.  This year is no different—inventory may be a cause we can look to for answers as well as they previous 12 months in order to chart the waters ahead.

ship

 

 

Compared to Last Year

Inventory down to 3.2 months.

Closed sales up 1.3%.

Pending sales up 7.2%

New listings up 3.7%.

Average Sales Price up 12.9%

Median Sales Price up 12.8%

 

Compared to Last Month

Closed sales down 2.1%

Pending sales down  18.8%

New listings down 32.5%

Average Sales Price up -3.0%

Median Sales Price up -1.0%

 

 

 

View The Full Report Here: RMLS Market Action Portland Metro Jan 15, 2014

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/ Market Analyst





Case-Shiller Home Prices December 2013

31 12 2013

Which Way Are We Going?“The key economic question facing housing is the Fed’s future course to scale back quantitative easing and how this will affect mortgage rates,” said David Blitzer, Chairman of the S&P Case-Shiller Indices. “Other housing data paint a mixed picture suggesting that we may be close to the peak gains in prices. However, other economic data point to somewhat faster growth in the new year. Most forecasts for home prices point to single digit growth in 2014.”

Huh?

I guess we get a freebie on this one.  If you want to see the glass half-full you can rest on the last two lines in the quote.  If you want to see it half-empty, you can take the second line for your day.  And, if you want to play it a little cautious, you can use it all and say, there is still too much in question with the “other” economic data to really make an educated guess as to where housing prices will go in 2014.

Nationally, in both the 10-city and 20-city composites we are up 13.6% for the year and 0.2% for the month of October.

Portland is at October 2005 levels at 160.46 (we also hit near here on the way down in December 2008).  This is up from last month reported by 0.2% and 12.7% increase for the year to date.

Take the day off, worrying about this for the end of the year will really get you nowhere.Whew...

 

The Full Report Here: The December 31 CS Report

 

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst





RMLS MARKET ACTION DECEMBER 2013

12 12 2013

simmering soupThe Portland Real Estate market is simmering in the winter like the perfect comfort soup on the stove.

 

Inventory has kept the prices from dropping in a season and time when they normally do; in fact, prices have not increased in November since 2007.  Many times this figure can be significant due to the Holiday season.  The new listings dropped 22.1% from last month which is a huge month-to-month drop.  Pending sales are also up compared to last month which may increase the closed sales number next month.soup 2

All in all, if you don’t have a home on the market yet, now would be a good time believe it or not.  Dress it in your holiday best and put it out there for the buyers to see.  If you do have a home on the market, the chances are very likely that it will sell.  Hang in there and continue to simmer, you are almost done!

Compared to Last Year

Inventory down to 3.7 months.

Closed sales up 5.1%.

Pending sales up 5.6%

New listings up 18%.

Average Sales Price up 13.9%

Median Sales Price up 12%

 

Compared to Last Month

Closed sales down 16.8%

Pending sales down  14%

New listings down 22.1%

Average Sales Price up 1.3%

Median Sales Price up 0%

served up soupView The Full Report Here Portland Market Action December 2013

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst








Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 650 other followers