March 2018 Portland Market Action

Portland Prices Align With Arizona Weather!

If you bought a rental house at the average sales price in December 2017 and rented it the next month in January, you would have covered your $1500 mortgage payments for the year and walked away with $6200 to spare for expenses on that rental for the rest of the year.  If you bought it for the median sales price, you broke even for March.  All your expenses paid; even better if your first payment wasn’t until February 1^st.

 

So, prices are hotter than a ghost pepper and it barely hit 69 degrees once this year!  Last year’s ceiling is this year’s floor.  I said it last month and the month before and it could not be more true today with this news from the RMLS Market Action for March 2018.

 

 

Buckle down for the next six- eight months folks—or, wait until the last week of August—my favorite time of the year for buyers to get a steal from a seller who has to sell as the market comes to a halt at the end of the summer.

 

 

Compared to Last Year

• Inventory up to 1.6 months from 1.3.
• Closed sales up 31.3%.
• Pending sales up 23.8%.
• New listings up 44.2%.
• Average Sales Price up 4.1%
• Median Sales Price up 6.8%

 

Compared to Last Month

• Inventory down to 1.6 months from 1.9.
• Closed sales up 31 %
• Pending sales up 23.8%
• New listings up 44.2%
• Average Sales Price up 0.9%
• Median Sales Price up 2.6%

 

The Full Report:Market Action March 2018

Dustin Miller

Market Analyst

Windermere Realty Trust

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Portland Metro Market Action 2017

Closed sales went down a tick under 1%, Decembers are pretty volatile over the past 5 years.  Last year we went down 29.5%, 2015 was up 25.9%, 2014 was up 15.6 and 2013 was down 2.1%.  This is a tough one to predict with weather and timing.

 

The new listings being down 33.1% is somewhat common and nothing to even lose sleep over, for now.  We always lose headway for December and pick up generally after the first of the year.  Pending sales follow the same trend.

Price is the big one!  December is the month to “figure” out the annual appreciation rate for the common man.  (The stat nerd calculates every month individually and posts different numbers).  The average sales price according to the Market Report is up only 5.6% and the median sales price is up near the expected 8.6%.  (Stat nerd came up with 2.8% for the average if you simply measure January’s price to December’s Price and 8.59% if you measure 2017’s low to high average sales price).  The Median Sales Price fared better January-December with 8.57% and high to low as 12.88%.   Which is really how it should be done.

• Compared to Last Year
• Inventory up to 1.6 months from 1.3.
• Closed sales down 10.3%.
• Pending sales even from the year prior.
• New listings up 13.8%.
• Average Sales Price up 5.6%
• Median Sales Price up 8.6%

Compared to Last Month

• Inventory down to 1.6 months from 1.9.
• Closed sales down 1.6 %
• Pending sales down 25.9%
• New listings down 33.1%
• Average Sales Price down 0.8%
• Median Sales Price up 0.8%

Interested in a unique measure of a decade?  From the peak in 2007 to the low in 2011 (when we lost about 30% of our equity) to the high in 2017, Portland has gained 21.94% for the average sales price since 2007 and 31.67% for the median sales price!  So if you bought high in 2007, lost your shirt but not your house in 2011 and are looking to sell in Portland today…

…on average, your home is worth about 20-30% more than it was then. That’s about 2-3% a year as we have done for the 3 decades before 2000 in Portland.

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group

 

                                   The Full Report Here:   Portland Metro Market Action December 2017

April 19, 2017 Real Estate Market Report

Portland Metro Market Action Report

Well, well, well…a price jump of 6% in a single month!  Looks huge compared to the NAR’s national average for the entire country, which is the Non-Seasonally Adjusted figure of 5.8% from last year!

New listings jumped up as well by 43%, however, different than last March, the pending sales gobbled them right up with a parallel jump of 28.5% compared to last year which was only a 10.4% jump from the previous month.

The other news is the median sales price for the Portland Metro Area being at $370,000!  Last year the peak number was $362,000 in June.  If we are above that number for 2017 already, you can forecast this year’s number to peak again higher easily.  Hang on!  The ride is not over yet…

The largest dilemma facing our industry is inventory—we need more houses on the market to balance out the demand facing supply.  If you are leaving the area, you will have no problem selling your home in a week if correctly priced.  However, if you are relocating to another spot here in the Portland the challenge to find a spot to land is very difficult.  Only a licensed professional agent will be able to help you navigate this landscape—trust me.  The other very difficult challenge is finding the ability to purchase without selling your home first.  This market will very rarely accept a contingent offer on the closing of your home first.  Back in the heyday of real estate in 2005-2006 bridge loans provided this ability constantly.  Now, there are only a handful of companies doing this and, once again, that is where an agent will be able to assist in locating one who fits your needs.

 

Median By Portland Area                % up from Last Year

Beaverton                     $328,000         13.1

Tigard                            $405,000         11.0

Lake Oswego                $530,000         11.6

Milwaukie                     $358,000          8.8

Oregon City                  $355,000         10.1

West Portland               $499,900         11.1

North Portland             $385,000         10.0

Northeast Portland      $390,000         15.0

Southeast Portland      $322,000         11.0

RMLS Market Action March 2017

Compared to Last Year

• Inventory even from 1.3 months from 1.3 months.
• Closed sales down -2.8%.
• Pending sales down -1.1%
• New listings up 5.7%.
• Average Sales Price up 11.2%
• Median Sales Price up 10.4%

Compared to Last Month

• Inventory down to 1.3 months from 1.9.
• Closed sales up 49.4%
• Pending sales up 28.5%
• New listings up 43%
• Average Sales Price up 6%
• Median Sales Price up 4.7%

Portland Metro Market Action March 2017

Dustin Miller

Broker/Portland Metro Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group

February 28, 2017 Case-Shiller Report

Number 2 again… Well, as I said in last month’s report, it is the best place to be for any competitor going into the big game. Most eyes are on number one—who is Seattle in this case.

The best news coming out of this report, which is a little interesting for David Blitzer’s analysis, is the insight to volatility over the course of the last 25 years, specifically the recent boom-to-bust-to-boom.  Blitzer looked at both the Seattle and Portland markets and found the higher end properties (over $532,716) were less volatile than the lower end (under $335,111) over the years.

…“Another factor supporting rising home prices is mortgage rates. A 30-year fixed rate mortgage today is 4.2% compared to the 6.4% average since 1990. Another indicator that home price levels are normal can be seen in the charts of Seattle and Portland OR. In the boom-bust of 2005-2009, prices of low, medium, and high-tier homes moved together, while in other periods, including now, the tiers experienced different patterns,” said David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

 

All in all, we are moving upward slowly and steadily and that is how we have done it for the past 50 years.  Obviously we have had some bumps along the way, but, in general, it has been a slow climb upward.

 

In the coming month I will post an analysis on the home prices regarding the past 12 years and be comparing the highs and lows as well as the times of year they happened.  Stay tuned!

Understatement Of The Year!

“One factor behind rising home prices is low inventory. While sales of existing single family homes passed five million units at annual rates in January, the highest since 2007, the inventory of homes for sales remains quite low with a 3.6 month supply,” said Blitzer.

Portland is currently at 1.7 months of supply and yearning for more.  In fact, we have only had 2 or more months of inventory in only 5 occasions in the past 2 years.

S&P Case-Shiller Numbers for December 2016

 

National

• 8% up from last year
• 2% up from last month

20 city—(Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, LasVegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco,  Seattle, Tampa, Washington.)

• 9% up from last year
• 3% up from last month

10 city—(Boston, Chicago, Denver, Vegas, LA, Florida, N.Y., San Diego, Miami, San Francisco)

• 9% up from last year
• 3% up from last month

 

Portland—

10% up from last year

0.3% up from last month

 

Download the Case-Shiller Report here:case-shiller-february-28-2017

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Portland Metro Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group

 

 

January 31, 2017 Case-Shiller Report

First and foremost, the numbers from this report are from data in November 2016.  Secondly, Portland landed at #2 again for this month which is still very strong for the national average.

 

“With the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rising at about 5.5% annual rate over the last two-and-a-half years and having reached a new all-time high recently, one can argue that housing has recovered from the boom-bust cycle that began a dozen years ago, says David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices…disposable income has risen at about a 2.5% annual rate for 30 months.”

Oak Grove Fork Clackamas River

What does this really mean?  Well, the encouraging part is that we are going up at a slow and steady pace, even in the late fall months, which is seasonally unexpected.  This is due mostly to our very low inventory for the area (1.2 months).  Supply is low and demand is still high for Portland, Oregon.  As I read in the CoreLogic MarketPulse this month, there is a large outward migration still flowing from California counties.  In Los Angeles and Orange counties, the outward migration is going to outlying counties due to affordability.  The median sales price for a home in Orange County is $639,000 and $544,000 for Los Angeles County.

 

“…about 24 out of the 100 households were buying outside of the county (Los Angeles),” said Archana Pradhan, Economist for CoreLogic…About one-third of the net outflow, representing 6 percent of current residents who want to buy, are buying out of state.”

Holly Fischer Photography

 

 

 

Portland’s median home price was $349,900 in December 2016.  This fact is perhaps not bringing in refugees from other states at an alarming rate, but it surely looks good for those seeking to relocate and get more home for the price.  That amount of demand, no matter how small or large, is putting pressure on those in-state who are also competing for the rare low number of home in inventory for the Portland Metropolitan area—1.2 months!

 

S&P Case Shiller Numbers

National

• 6% up from last year
• 2% up from last month

20 city—(Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, LasVegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco,  Seattle, Tampa, Washington.)

• 3% up from last year
• 2% up from last month

10 city—(Boston, Chicago, Denver, Vegas, LA, Florida, N.Y., San Diego, Miami, San Francisco)

• 5% up from last year
• 2% up from last month

 

Portland—

10.1% up from last year

0.2% up from last month

 

Case-Shiller Report case-shiller-january-31-2017

 

My hike in the snow last spring

Dustin Miller

Broker/Portland Metro Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group

December 2016 End of Year RMLS Market Action Compared to National Reporting

Well, let’s wrap it up with a summary of bullet points for 2016.  All in all, we are in a good position for the real estate market in 2017.  Whether we end up breaking more records or dropping to the middle of the pack like the many years prior, an increase of even small amounts is still an increase and; frankly, much healthier in the long run.  Portland, as well as the state, has always been under the radar for home prices hiding in the middle of the national numbers near center.  See where being in the top 3 has got us this year…

News:

• Oregon is the 6^th largest growing state according to U.S. Census Bureau—80% from out-of-state folks, 20% from new births exceeding deaths.

December 2016 S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller—numbers from October 2016

• Portland at 10.3% average sales price appreciation, #2 in the Nation.

• All 20 cities measured saw a month-to-month increase this year.

• Nationally we are on a healthy plateau around 5.6% unlike we have seen in the past 20 years. We are neither rising quickly nor declining quickly.

Corelogic Equity Report Q3 2016

• Oregon averaged $26K in equity gain since 2015.

• Oregon average is 52.4% of loan-to-value of all homes mortgaged.

Corelogic Home Price Insights Report –numbers from October 2016

• Connecticut was the only state which showed a negative for price appreciation year-over-year at -0.7%.

• The National figure for year-over –year is 6.7% on average.

• Oregon experienced 9.9% year-over-year appreciation (#2 between Washington and Colorado) and forecast next year to drop to 5.3%.

RMLS Market Action End of Year 2016

Compared to Last Year

• Inventory up to 1.3 months from 1.2.
• Closed sales down -3.3%.
• Pending sales down -9.2%
• New listings down -7.6%.
• Average Sales Price up 8.6%
• Median Sales Price up 9.3%

Compared to Last Month

• Inventory down to 1.3 months from 1.8.
• Closed sales up 7.7%
• Pending sales down -22.5%
• New listings down -31.7%
• Average Sales Price up 0.6%
• Median Sales Price down -0.5%

RMLS Market Action December 2016: december-2016-market-action

Dustin Miller
Broker/Analyst

 

 

September 27, 2016 Case Shiller Report

Once again, Portland leads the nation in year-over-year appreciation for the sixth month in a row.  Not a surprise based on the July numbers for us since summer is generally always the hottest price appreciation month each year.  That being said, Portland numbers are slowing down based on the RMLS Market Action for August numbers.  The Market Action had Portland go down in August by 1.7%.  That is most likely a prediction that the numbers will go down as well for the Case Shiller Index next month.

However, we most likely will make the top three next month for the Case Shiller Index year-over-year appreciation even if the number goes down.  Relax and let fall settle in.  Cozy up to a warm blanket and hot cup of coffee as the market cools a bit seasonally as it always does.  It does not mean that the home you just purchased a month or so ago has specifically lost value.  Even if it does, we will bounce back as always in the Spring.  Don’t let fear settle in as long term appreciation in real estate is always your best investment.

Finally, the chart Case Shiller put on the report this month for peak-to-trough and rebound percentages is the most interesting part of this report for Portland.  I added Portland into the chart below for a little perspective.

S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Indices Peak to Trough Analysis
	2006 Peak		2012 Trough			Current
Index	Level	Date	Level	Date	From Peak %	Level	From Trough %	From Peak %
National	184.62	Jul-06	134.01	Feb-12	27.4%	183.57	37.0%	-0.6%
20-City	206.52	Jul-06	134.07	Mar-12	35.1%	190.91	42.4%	-7.6%
10-City	229.29	Jun-06	146.45	Mar-12	35.3%	204.92	39.9%	-9.4%
Portland	186.51	Jul-07	129.01	Mar-12	30.8%	207.46	60.8%	11.2%

Portland was above the national level at its peak a year after the rest of the nation in July 2007 at 186.51.  Then we crashed harder than all the averages in March of 2012 with a low of 129.01.  However, we only crashed 30.8% which was 3.4% above the National Average and below the other two indices.  Then “pow” we rebounded up 60.8% above that low from March 2012 and currently stand 11.2% above our all-time high from July 2007.  So even if we lose a few points, Portland will still remain strong for real estate in the future.  Yes, we will slow down as a typical real estate cycle, but the bubble is highly unlikely due to all the rules and regulations executed in the recession years.

National

• 1% up from last year
• 7% up from last month

20 city—(Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, LasVegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco,  Seattle, Tampa, Washington.)

• 0% up from last year
• 6% up from last month

10 city—(Boston, Chicago, Denver, Vegas, LA, Florida, N.Y., San Diego, Miami, San Francisco)

• 2% up from last year
• 5% up from last month

 

Portland–#26 in population countrywide but included nonetheless. Take note.

•             12.4% up from last year
•             1.2% up from last year

 

The Full Report Here:case-shiller-september-27-2016

Dustin Miller

Broker/Portland Metro Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group