Portland Metro March 2016 Market Action

14 04 2016
early harvest

Early Harvest

March is a month of new growth.  First the crocus, then the daffodils and lastly the tulips emerge from the ground along with the new homes coming on the market.  This year it appears that the buyers are beating the animals at gobbling up the new growth on the market.  Closed sales are up over 40% this month.  We are not used to breaking new records in the housing market after the groundhog predicts an early spring.  This market is like harvesting tomatoes in August for Portland!

Tomatoes

Compared to Last Year

  • Inventory down to 1.3 months from 1.9.
  • Closed sales up 4.4%.
  • Pending sales down 9.1%
  • New listings down 5.2%.
  • Average Sales Price up 14.2%
  • Median Sales Price 15.5%

Compared to Last Month

  • Inventory down to 1.3 months.
  • Closed sales up 41.5%
  • Pending sales up 10.4%
  • New listings up 17.7%
  • Average Sales Price up 5.5%
  • Median Sales Price up 6.3%

 

The last time we had a jump this high in a single month was August 2005 of 5.4% for the Average Sales Price and 5.18% for the Median Sales Price.  Which means this is the highest price increase month-to-month in Portland’s recorded history!

lopez

Lopez Lomong

Sure enough, the figures for the average sales price and the median sales price are also the highest we have ever seen in both categories.

Danger

Is it a Bubble? Right now, all indicators are pointing more toward a slowing down to a normal balanced market rather than a burst of a bubble down the road.  Incomes are barely keeping up and regulations have kept a tight rein on unsecured debt in the mortgage-backed securities market.

bubble-burst

The Full Report:  March Market Action 2016

Dustin Miller
Broker/Market Analyst

 

 

 





RMLS MARKET ACTION FEBRUARY 2016

14 03 2016

scary

News?…..

 

It is in the numbers.  We are starting this year out on price $1000.00 above the highest recorded Average Sales price for 2015.  That is a little scary for Portlanders.  We don’t want to be anywhere near the top or breaking records.  Historically we are always a market which is slow to rise and hanging in the middle.  With this kind of start we need to be thinking about the future and what it holds for us.

200-meters-starting-blocks

Should buyers be more cautious on what they are willing to pay to help reign in the race?  Or, should sellers take the more conservative, but sound financial offer in a multiple offer situation in order to ensure a stable transaction?

 

We will find out in the summer where the prices are usually the highest for us…

off in the distance

 

Compared to Last Year

Inventory down to 1.8 months from 3.0.

Closed sales up 10%.

Pending sales up 9.9%

New listings up 0.4%.

Average Sales Price up 11.3%

Median Sales Price 10.5%

 

Compared to Last Month

Inventory steady at 1.8 months.

Closed sales down 2.5%

Pending sales up 24.2%

New listings up 15%

Average Sales Price up 2.6%

Median Sales Price up 1.6%

 

 

 

The Full Report  February Market Action 2016

 

Dustin Miller

Real Estate Market Analyst





Case-Shiller Home Prices January 26, 2016 Report

26 01 2016

Dorthy

Wow…

 

Here are the numbers of today’s Case Shiller Report.  Portland is at an all-time high for November 2015.  This is unheard of for a late Fall number ever in our recorded history.  It makes us all wonder what will come up in next month’s report on whether it is lower or higher.  We all expect the number to go down in the Winter, but based on this, it will be somewhat unclear to predict.

Lady

More soon!

Portland  Index

Jul-2007 186.51
Aug-2015 186.51
Nov-2015 189.47

 

National  Index

Jul-2006 184.62
Nov-2007 175.19
Nov-2015 175.71

 

10 City  Index

Jun-2006 226.29
Nov-2015 197.54

 

20 City Index

Jul-2006 206.52
Dec-2007 184.97
Jan-2008 180.68
Nov-2015 182.86

 

Top

 

The Full Report Here: 

Case Shiller January 26, 2015

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst

 





RMLS Market Action August 2015 Portland Metro Area

23 09 2015

amazed at the prices RMLS History

What…no one told me.  We broke a price record on real estate sales in 2015!  Where did you see that?

Well, I dug it up myself..see below.

The amazing findings show that the Portland Real Estate Market right now is the 4th highest Average sales price on record compared to August 2007, and the previous two months in 2015 at $364,600.  The Median Sales Price is 3rd highest on record compared to the previous months in 2015.

Have we been in the dark in the past 3 months?in the dark

My small lawyer disclaimer is that you cannot ask for whatever you want in this market based on what you hear in the news or read on a flyer next door.  You must trust a professional to assisting you and his research in the process to come up with a price based on facts in the neighborhood which are comparable to yours.

A recent client of mine listed her home for what she wanted to in the mid-$500s and then I hired and appraiser to prove my point.  We changed the price to $6K over the appraiser’s number, got 2 offers and still sold $13.5K under the listed price.

Compared to Last Year

Inventory down to 1.9 months from 3.0.

Closed sales up 19.8%.

Pending sales up 23.8%

New listings up 8.3%.

Average Sales Price up 7.2%

Median Sales Price 7.0%

Compared to Last Month

Inventory up to 1.9 months from 1.7

Closed sales down 10.3%

Pending sales down 4.2%

New listings down 9.2%

Average Sales Price down 1.2%

Median Sales Price down 0.5%

More findings soon on local neighborhoods as well.

The Full Report

RMLS History Blog

RMLS Market Action:August Market Action 2015





RMLS MARKET ACTION MARCH 2015

16 03 2015
Days of 2008...

Days of 2008…

In December 2007, the real estate market was issued a threatening letter from the economy that the water would be shut off due to non-payment.  By December 2008, the water was shut off and we had 810 homes pending and 987 homes sold.  The market dried up to the equivalent of a chile…not even a raisin.

Chilis

Well, here we are today, after the water was turned back on in 2012 went from a trickle to moderate flow through March 2015.

Low Flow

February 2015 pending sales volume reached 2534 and the closed sales hit 1648.  This is only 347 homes off the closed number for February 2005!

Enjoying the moderation

Of course the pending homes were huge in that year at 3209 compared to this year at 2534. I calculated my own early numbers for March and we are at 2682 for the pending sales 30 days back from the 15th of March.

Corelogic’s Foreclosure Report just reported that Oregon has 1.6% of its homes in foreclosure, putting it on the bottom third of the nation.  Normally we fall higher up in the middle for national averages.

Corelogic’s Home Price Index had Oregon at #5 in the report for the whole nation in price appreciation compared to the other 49 states; and, 8.7% away from our peak prices in July 2007.

Fountains

Corelogic’s Marketpulse Report  has at #10 in the nation since 1976 for Minimum, Maximum and Current home price appreciation.

The flow may not be gushing like little Joel Miller drinking from the firehose in UHF circa 1989, but it certainly has recovered nicely for Spring 2015 in Portland, Oregon.

Compared to Last Year

  • Inventory down to 3 months.
  • Closed sales up 12.3%.
  • Pending sales up 37.1% !
  • New listings up 22.5%.
  • Average Sales Price up 0.8%
  • Median Sales Price 2.2%

Compared to Last Month

  • Closed sales up 11.6%
  • Pending sales up 10.5%
  • New listings up 4.4%
  • Average Sales Price Down 0.4%
  • Median Sales Price Up 1.8%

The Full Reports Below:

RMLS March 2015 Market Action

Corelogic Marketpulse Feb 2015

Corelogic HPI Jan 2015

Corelogic Foreclosure Report Jan 2015

Dustin Miller

Real Estate Market Analyst





Case-Shiller Home Prices February 24, 2015 Report

6 03 2015
How do you see it?

              How do you see it?

Well Mr. Blitzer and I definitely seem to have different perspectives on these national reports of recent days.  He was so positive in 2013, I miss it.  Perhaps the extreme 2014-2015 winter is shaping his sunny opinions for the future.

“The housing recovery is faltering. While prices and sales of existing homes are close to normal, construction and new home sales remain weak. Before the current business cycle, any time housing starts were at their current level of about one million at annual rates, the economy was in a recession” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The softness in housing is despite favorable conditions elsewhere in the economy: strong job growth, a declining unemployment rate, continued low interest rates and positive consumer confidence.”

The collective indices are all under 5% for the one year change but most individual cities are up above that number for the year.  Many East Coast and Mid-West Cities are under 3%.  They put us back to autumn 2004 levels at this point.

half glass

New construction starts are only one measuring stick for “housing recovery” that Blitzer is referring to in this report.  So many different factors go into shaping that number today versus 8 years ago before the recession started.  For the Portland Metro Area, for instance, all of the governments in the area thought raising construction fees astronomically would be a good solution to their budget shortfalls.  These new charges are called “system development charges” and along with a strict Urban Growth Boundary, have kept Portland pretty low for new construction starts.  The state posted 0.03 growth numbers in Q4 of 2014 for new construction related indicators, however our sales prices and volumes are considered to be positive regionally.

Portland is staying the course, gradually climbing up in prices and not rapidly fluctuating up and down.  This spring prices may spike in March and April as the weather improves along with income.  We are between March and April 2006 as far as our Case-Shiller Indicator number of 170.70 in this report.

Stay tuned for the next report featuring the MarketPulse and Home Price Index Reports from CoreLogic, they both paint a totally different perspective on housing starts for 2015.

glass half

The Full Report Here: case shiller Feb 2015

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst





Portland Metro Market Action January 2015

21 01 2015
Plenty of homes for everyone.

Winter 2012 Plenty of homes for everyone.

This is it!  We hit a record low for December 2014 for inventory in the past 8 years.  Portland is currently at 2.3 months of inventory.  This means that if another home does not come on the market today, all of the existing homes would sell in 2.3 months.

Buyer and Seller can live side-by-side in peace.

Buyer and Seller lived side-by-side in peace.

The nearest time we were this low was May of 2013 at 2.5 months.  Before that, we have to go 8 years back to May 2006 when it hit 2.3 months.  With supply this low, we can expect demand to cause the price to increase.  Of course, this isn’t blatantly across the board, but in general, this is considered a seller’s market.

 

Buyers left searching for homes where there are very few.

2014 Buyers left searching for homes where there are very few.

Compared to Last Year

Inventory down to 2.3 months.

Closed sales up 25.6%.

Pending sales up 12.3%

New listings up 15.5%.

Average Sales Price up 7.4%

Median Sales Price 8.5%

Compared to Last Month

Closed sales up 15.6%

Pending sales down 20.3%

New listings down 19.9%

Average Sales Price Down 1.3%

Median Sales Price Up 1.0%

Buyers all have to rush to see the one and only house on the market which fits their needs.

Buyers all have to rush to see the one and only house on the market which fits their needs.

The Full Report: January 2015 RMLS Market Action

Dustin Miller
Broker/Market Analyst








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