16 03 2015
Days of 2008...

Days of 2008…

In December 2007, the real estate market was issued a threatening letter from the economy that the water would be shut off due to non-payment.  By December 2008, the water was shut off and we had 810 homes pending and 987 homes sold.  The market dried up to the equivalent of a chile…not even a raisin.


Well, here we are today, after the water was turned back on in 2012 went from a trickle to moderate flow through March 2015.

Low Flow

February 2015 pending sales volume reached 2534 and the closed sales hit 1648.  This is only 347 homes off the closed number for February 2005!

Enjoying the moderation

Of course the pending homes were huge in that year at 3209 compared to this year at 2534. I calculated my own early numbers for March and we are at 2682 for the pending sales 30 days back from the 15th of March.

Corelogic’s Foreclosure Report just reported that Oregon has 1.6% of its homes in foreclosure, putting it on the bottom third of the nation.  Normally we fall higher up in the middle for national averages.

Corelogic’s Home Price Index had Oregon at #5 in the report for the whole nation in price appreciation compared to the other 49 states; and, 8.7% away from our peak prices in July 2007.


Corelogic’s Marketpulse Report  has at #10 in the nation since 1976 for Minimum, Maximum and Current home price appreciation.

The flow may not be gushing like little Joel Miller drinking from the firehose in UHF circa 1989, but it certainly has recovered nicely for Spring 2015 in Portland, Oregon.

Compared to Last Year

  • Inventory down to 3 months.
  • Closed sales up 12.3%.
  • Pending sales up 37.1% !
  • New listings up 22.5%.
  • Average Sales Price up 0.8%
  • Median Sales Price 2.2%

Compared to Last Month

  • Closed sales up 11.6%
  • Pending sales up 10.5%
  • New listings up 4.4%
  • Average Sales Price Down 0.4%
  • Median Sales Price Up 1.8%

The Full Reports Below:

RMLS March 2015 Market Action

Corelogic Marketpulse Feb 2015

Corelogic HPI Jan 2015

Corelogic Foreclosure Report Jan 2015

Dustin Miller

Real Estate Market Analyst

Case-Shiller Home Prices February 24, 2015 Report

6 03 2015
How do you see it?

              How do you see it?

Well Mr. Blitzer and I definitely seem to have different perspectives on these national reports of recent days.  He was so positive in 2013, I miss it.  Perhaps the extreme 2014-2015 winter is shaping his sunny opinions for the future.

“The housing recovery is faltering. While prices and sales of existing homes are close to normal, construction and new home sales remain weak. Before the current business cycle, any time housing starts were at their current level of about one million at annual rates, the economy was in a recession” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The softness in housing is despite favorable conditions elsewhere in the economy: strong job growth, a declining unemployment rate, continued low interest rates and positive consumer confidence.”

The collective indices are all under 5% for the one year change but most individual cities are up above that number for the year.  Many East Coast and Mid-West Cities are under 3%.  They put us back to autumn 2004 levels at this point.

half glass

New construction starts are only one measuring stick for “housing recovery” that Blitzer is referring to in this report.  So many different factors go into shaping that number today versus 8 years ago before the recession started.  For the Portland Metro Area, for instance, all of the governments in the area thought raising construction fees astronomically would be a good solution to their budget shortfalls.  These new charges are called “system development charges” and along with a strict Urban Growth Boundary, have kept Portland pretty low for new construction starts.  The state posted 0.03 growth numbers in Q4 of 2014 for new construction related indicators, however our sales prices and volumes are considered to be positive regionally.

Portland is staying the course, gradually climbing up in prices and not rapidly fluctuating up and down.  This spring prices may spike in March and April as the weather improves along with income.  We are between March and April 2006 as far as our Case-Shiller Indicator number of 170.70 in this report.

Stay tuned for the next report featuring the MarketPulse and Home Price Index Reports from CoreLogic, they both paint a totally different perspective on housing starts for 2015.

glass half

The Full Report Here: case shiller Feb 2015

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst

Portland Metro Market Action January 2015

21 01 2015
Plenty of homes for everyone.

Winter 2012 Plenty of homes for everyone.

This is it!  We hit a record low for December 2014 for inventory in the past 8 years.  Portland is currently at 2.3 months of inventory.  This means that if another home does not come on the market today, all of the existing homes would sell in 2.3 months.

Buyer and Seller can live side-by-side in peace.

Buyer and Seller lived side-by-side in peace.

The nearest time we were this low was May of 2013 at 2.5 months.  Before that, we have to go 8 years back to May 2006 when it hit 2.3 months.  With supply this low, we can expect demand to cause the price to increase.  Of course, this isn’t blatantly across the board, but in general, this is considered a seller’s market.


Buyers left searching for homes where there are very few.

2014 Buyers left searching for homes where there are very few.

Compared to Last Year

Inventory down to 2.3 months.

Closed sales up 25.6%.

Pending sales up 12.3%

New listings up 15.5%.

Average Sales Price up 7.4%

Median Sales Price 8.5%

Compared to Last Month

Closed sales up 15.6%

Pending sales down 20.3%

New listings down 19.9%

Average Sales Price Down 1.3%

Median Sales Price Up 1.0%

Buyers all have to rush to see the one and only house on the market which fits their needs.

Buyers all have to rush to see the one and only house on the market which fits their needs.

The Full Report: January 2015 RMLS Market Action

Dustin Miller
Broker/Market Analyst

Case-Shiller Home Prices November 2014

25 11 2014

Light At The End of the Tunnel...

The light at the end of the tunnel is not a train as the Case-Shiller Home Price Press Release seems to state.  “The overall trend in home price increases continues to slow down…, said David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

What he didn’t say after that headline with the same emphasis, is that only the National Index posted a negative change for September -0.1%.  Nine cities in the 20-city composite posted negative numbers for the month-to-month change and 11 posted flat or positive numbers–the worst was -0.4% for D.C. and the best was 0.6% for Miami and Charlotte.light at end of tunnel is the sun

Portland, Oregon was Number 5 on the list for the 1-Year Change of 6.7% below Dallas 7.4% and above Denver 6.2% and Seattle 6.0%.  That is pretty impressive news Portland!

The scary “deceleration” word they used up-front that had us holding a match to our wallets, eventually became “stable to slightly better” for housing in 2015 at the end of the report.

If this was school, our mid-term grade sounds more like a C+ or B- with lots of room to improve next semester. A little more to the left…Puncheon's missed goal

Portland, Oregon as of November 25, 2014

All Active Homes, Pending and Sold Homes 30 days back from Today.

Inventory:                     2.3 Months

Average Sale Price:     $339,217 (up $3617 up 1% from last month)

Median Sale Price:       $293,500 (up $4500 up 1.5% from last month)

Days on The Market:   59 Days (down 6 days from last month)

# Active                         4,885 total overall

# Pending                      2,841 (361 more than Oct.)

# Sold                             2,094 (393 less than Oct.)

Big news for Portland that ALL realtors are talking about right now–  Inventory!  It is getting worse at 2.3 Months of Inventory if not another house came on the market we would run out in 2.3 months!  Just like Fall ’04 and ’05.

Supply and demand…supply goes down and demand goes up…prices go up.  It is simple business.  The light on the other side of the tunnel is the sun and the grass is greener there.


Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst

October 2014 Portland Market Action

14 10 2014
Decent Waters Ahead

Decent Waters Ahead

The conversation recently seems to be leaning on a small downturn for the numbers in September 2014. Yes, we dropped from month-to-month, which only seems reasonable for the season rolling into the Fall and Winter. So far this year, we have appreciated 7.4% for the average sales price and 7.5% for the median.

In looking back at August 2007, when we had a peak of average sales price at $366,900 and the median was $300,000, the inventory level was 6.2 months versus now at 3.1 months. That 3.1 number is closely associated with May of 2006. The closest volume this current report reflects is the pending sales numbers at 2,551—August 2007 there were 2,447! The big difference is the volume of year-to-date homes available for sale…

Balanced Market

Balanced Market

August 2007

New listings        Pending Sales                 Closed Sales
43,567                  21,339                               20,607

September 2014
New listings       Pending Sales                   Closed Sales
31,111                   22,324                                20,652

That is why we are at 3.1 months of inventory.

Compared to Last Year
Inventory down to 3.1 months.
Closed sales up 10.2%.
Pending sales up 15%
New listings up 6.1%.
Average Sales Price up 6.6%
Median Sales Price 5.4%

Compared to Last Month

Closed sales down 8%
Pending sales down 5.7%
New listings down 13.4%
Average Sales Price Down 0.6%
Median Sales Price Down 2.0%


The Full Report Here:

October 14, 2014 RMLS Market Action

The waters ahead look more like a normal marketplace for all...

The waters ahead look more like a normal marketplace for all…

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Anaylst

April 2014 RMLS Market Action

13 04 2014

Peaceful Community


It is time to revisit supply and demand again to answer a question.  (I covered it 2 months ago).  If supply is down and demand is up, generally the price goes up.  But, in Portland that was barely the case this past month when the average sales price went up 0.8% and the median sales price dropped to -0.5%.


What happened?Supply and Demand

In August 2005, the price went up month-to-month by 8.8% and we had really low inventory—1.6 months.  We currently have 3.1 months which is almost twice that but still extremely low.


As far as the volume of sales, the April Market Action showed only about 100 more listings and 100 more sales for the August 2005 time period in the West Portland Area.  That is not much when the overall number for that area is nearly 600 new listings in 2014.  For the entire Portland Metro Area we have a much bigger picture and that is where the difference is.  In the current 2014 report, 3090 new listings came on the market and 1857 sales came off the market.  In August 2005, 4779 new listings came on the market and 3690 sold.


Smaller pond, less fish.  The economy has taken 50% of the consumers out of the home buying and selling business.  That may drive up some prices, but not all.  Other buyers and sellers, are hanging out in their slice of America and simply not participating.

Cash Buyer Moves In...

Cash Buyer Moves In…


Compared to Last Year

Inventory down to 3.1 months.

Closed sales up -4.0%.

Pending sales up -3.6%

New listings up 2.9%.

Average Sales Price up 9.7%

Median Sales Price up 11%


Compared to Last Month

Closed sales up 26.6%

Pending sales up 37.1%

New listings up 31.3%

Average Sales Price up 0.8%

Median Sales Price down -0.5%


The Perfect Marketplace

The Perfect Marketplace











Not sure whether it is best to be the one in the water or on land in this market…

In or out



View The Full Report Here  April 2014 RMLS Market Action


Dustin Miller

Broker / Market Analyst

Case-Shiller Home Prices February 25, 2014 Report

25 02 2014

‘Tis the season…

When we start going down month-to-month, we as a nation in the marketplace start talking about how the year ended versus the previous year.

Winter Weather 'Tis the season

 “In December, the 10-City Composite remained relatively unchanged while the 20-City Composite showed its second consecutive monthly decline of 0.1%. Year-over-year, the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted gains of 13.6% and 13.4%, approximately 30 basis points lower than their November rates,” the report stated.

“The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index ended its best year since 2005,” said David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices… Recent economic reports suggest a bleaker picture for housing. Existing home sales fell 5.1% in January from December to the slowest pace in over a year. Permits for new residential construction and housing starts were both down and below expectations. Some of the weakness reflects the cold weather in much of the country. However, higher home prices and mortgage rates are taking a toll on affordability…but bank lending standards remain strict.”

For the composites nationally, the report states that prices are back to Spring 2004 levels but Portland is fairing much better in the report where prices are closer to levels in the fall of 2005.

Another high point in the report for Portland, Oregon is the seasonally adjusted averages where they are negative for the last two reports for month-to-month numbers (-0.1 and -0.3), but when seasonally adjusted they post positive numbers of 0.7% for both reports.

home snowAll in all Portland is still much better off going back to its old self of gradually climbing up in prices and not rapidly fluctuating up and down.  I expect the “season” to sway prices up once again as we move toward spring 2014.

At least our season is shut down like the Great Lakes states too.  They pretty much have to wait for late spring to buy and sell houses!

For sale

The Full Report Here: The February 25 CS Report

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst


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