September 27, 2016 Case Shiller Report

27 09 2016

fall-is-coming

Once again, Portland leads the nation in year-over-year appreciation for the sixth month in a row.  Not a surprise based on the July numbers for us since summer is generally always the hottest price appreciation month each year.  That being said, Portland numbers are slowing down based on the RMLS Market Action for August numbers.  The Market Action had Portland go down in August by 1.7%.  That is most likely a prediction that the numbers will go down as well for the Case Shiller Index next month.

However, we most likely will make the top three next month for the Case Shiller Index year-over-year appreciation even if the number goes down.  Relax and let fall settle in.  Cozy up to a warm blanket and hot cup of coffee as the market cools a bit seasonally as it always does.  It does not mean that the home you just purchased a month or so ago has specifically lost value.  Even if it does, we will bounce back as always in the Spring.  Don’t let fear settle in as long term appreciation in real estate is always your best investment.

coffee

Finally, the chart Case Shiller put on the report this month for peak-to-trough and rebound percentages is the most interesting part of this report for Portland.  I added Portland into the chart below for a little perspective.

S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Indices Peak to Trough Analysis

2006 Peak 2012 Trough   Current  
Index Level Date Level Date From Peak % Level From Trough % From Peak %
National 184.62 Jul-06 134.01 Feb-12 27.4% 183.57 37.0% -0.6%
20-City 206.52 Jul-06 134.07 Mar-12 35.1% 190.91 42.4% -7.6%
10-City 229.29 Jun-06 146.45 Mar-12 35.3% 204.92 39.9% -9.4%
Portland 186.51 Jul-07 129.01 Mar-12 30.8% 207.46 60.8% 11.2%

Portland was above the national level at its peak a year after the rest of the nation in July 2007 at 186.51.  Then we crashed harder than all the averages in March of 2012 with a low of 129.01.  However, we only crashed 30.8% which was 3.4% above the National Average and below the other two indices.  Then “pow” we rebounded up 60.8% above that low from March 2012 and currently stand 11.2% above our all-time high from July 2007.  So even if we lose a few points, Portland will still remain strong for real estate in the future.  Yes, we will slow down as a typical real estate cycle, but the bubble is highly unlikely due to all the rules and regulations executed in the recession years.

National

  • 1% up from last year
  • 7% up from last month

20 city—(Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, LasVegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco,  Seattle, Tampa, Washington.)

  • 0% up from last year
  • 6% up from last month

10 city—(Boston, Chicago, Denver, Vegas, LA, Florida, N.Y., San Diego, Miami, San Francisco)

  • 2% up from last year
  • 5% up from last month

 

Portland–#26 in population countrywide but included nonetheless. Take note.

  •             12.4% up from last year
  •             1.2% up from last year

linus-peanuts-tease-160211

 

The Full Report Here:case-shiller-september-27-2016

Dustin Miller

Broker/Portland Metro Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group

 

 





Market Shift Confirmed This Month In Portland

15 09 2016
little-richard

Happy Birthday Tutti Fruitti

The news as we expected has come…just a little earlier than we might have thought.    I was thinking more for the September numbers this year, though, in speaking with my colleagues, we all felt it coming.  Rocking #1 on the Case Shiller Index for price (3 months back) Portland finally saw the cooling off period start last month.  The bubble didn’t burst. It is like a 10-year-old boy slowly letting out the air and making that annoying squeaking sound as it screams between the thin latex layers.

 

Freak out? little-richard-magnificen-001

No.

Adjust. And adapt.way-back

 

The average sales price of -1.7% and median sales price of -0.6% between July and August of this year is the concern for all who are still on the market today.  I thought I might find more surprising data, but over the past 5 years our summer months have been very spotty on these month-to-month numbers.  In July 2015 we went up 3.0% and 3.1% for the average and median and in July 2015 we went down -0.1% and -0.6%.  It has been like this every summer since 2012 where one month is up and another is down during the summer.  The significance to this summer is our double digit appreciation leading up to it and what these numbers may do this Fall and Winter to either keep it up or balance it out.

dong

 

 

Compared to Last Year

  • Inventory unchanged 1.9 months from 1.9.
  • Closed sales down -3.1%.
  • Pending sales down -0.7%
  • New listings up 8.3%.
  • Average Sales Price up 9.7%
  • Median Sales Price up 11.5%

 

Compared to Last Month

  • Inventory unchanged at 1.9 months from 1.9.
  • Closed sales up 8.1%
  • Pending sales down 0.7%
  • New listings down -3.9%
  • Average Sales Price down -1.7%
  • Median Sales Price down -1.6%

The Full Report Here: portland-metro-market-action-august-2016

 

Dustin Miller

Market Analyst

Portland, Oregon





Market Shift Coming Faster Than Expected In Portland

12 08 2016

shock

Well the numbers for the July 2016 Portland Metro Market Action came as a little bit of a shock yesterday as we saw the median sales price tick down 1.9% from the previous month in June.  Sales are down by 12.1% which is somewhat expected with low inventory.  The last time we saw this happen was in 2012 when we went down 12.1% as well.  The previous 3 years we have actually increased by 10.2%, 2.3%, and 4.5% for sales from month to month.

batman

However, we have not seen a price drop in the median this large since 2010 went we went down 1.6%.  In 2009 we dropped 13.3% between June and July.  This is a pretty sharp move for the metro area in such a short time when prices generally move slightly up or down during the summer.  In 2015, we went down 0.6% in the same month-to-month period.

33476-ca_029_calvin_hobbes_ponder__65012

 

Compared to Last Year

  • Inventory up to 1.9 months from 1.7.
  • Closed sales down -19.6%.
  • Pending sales down 5.5%
  • New listings up 2.3%.
  • Average Sales Price down 10.3%
  • Median Sales Price up 11.6%

 

Compared to Last Month

  • Inventory up to 1.9 months from 1.5.
  • Closed sales down -12.1%
  • Pending sales down -2.6%
  • New listings down -2.9%
  • Average Sales Price down -1.2%
  • Median Sales Price down -1.9%

arrows

 

The Full Report Here:July 2016 Market Action

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst





Portland Tops Case Shiller May 2016 Numbers Again

26 07 2016

partydreamcolorparty

Once again Portland tops the S&P Case-Shiller Index for May 2016 at 12.5% year-over year appreciation.  Just like last month, where Seattle and Denver followed behind at a 10.7% and 9.5 rate.

With that everyone is asking about the bubble popping.  David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said “The two hottest areas during the housing boom were Florida and the Southwest. Miami and Tampa have recovered in the last few months while Las Vegas and Phoenix remain weak. When home prices began to recover, New York and Washington saw steady price growth; now both are among the weakest areas in the country.”

What that says to me, is that the slow down is what to expect.  Portland may slow down in number and in price, but it will be healthy for us.  Like sleeping in, once Daylight Savings Time is over; or, having a bowl of soup and reading a book.

Caution

Notice in the headlines for the cities which have slowed down, the “Chicken Little” lingo is not there.  New York, Washington and Cleveland all had under 3% appreciation for May 2016 numbers.

For the Spring!  Are you kidding me!  Nothing popped though.  The bottom didn’t fall out.  Mass hysteria is not flooding the streets.

At some point Portland will not be on top and can expect the same.  That’s it.  The number may go back to our normal 4-5% appreciation which we did for about 50 years on average in the past. And, that is a GOOD thing.  Go on vacation.  It will be here when you get back.

relax-hammock

The Full Report Here:case shiller may 2016

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Anaylst

 

 





S&P Case-Shiller June 29, 2016

30 06 2016

timbers 1

 

Case-Shiller Index Numbers

So let’s break down the hype for Portland, Oregon…yes, we are breaking records for prices over the entire country.  Is it really news to those of us who have been here for 20+ years that the mountains and oceans are about an hour and half away?  And people came here in droves, including my ancestors in 1852 to stake a claim on fertile land open for the opportunity to be you.  Whoever you wanted to be without your neighbor judging you.  The topography, scenic nature and growing industry are a draw for all who have eyes on us around the country.

Hey, Timbers Army, whadya think?  As we paraded the streets with “too hot” scarves adorned in double-axed insignia, it never crossed our minds that this might be a great place to land for, ya know, like, everyone.

t 2

So here we are leading the nation in appreciation year over year on the Case-Shiller report.  Duh.

Now, let’s see what that means for those on mother Oregon’s soil already.  Bubble?  Too soon to tell.  What we do know is that the bubble nightmare of 2008 is as fresh as Sept. 11th is to us with the recent Turkish Bombings.  A few folks will push the envelope on risk, but the majority of us won’t pay $8.00 for a gallon of milk unless Armageddon is evident.

So the Case -Shiller is really reporting what we all already know…this is a great place to land and stay.  Secondly, it is telling us places like Seattle, Denver, Dallas, San Diego, Tampa are still good spots too.  Where not to go?  Maybe New York, Washington, Cleveland, Chicago, Tampa would hit the bottom of your list.  Detroit rocked all of our expectations this year with a 5.7% return year-over-year which beat those mentioned above.  Detroit over New York, really?  Yes, if you want to make money in real estate according to the S&P Case -Shiller for April 2016.

National

  • 5% up from last year
  • 1% up from last month

Twenty (20) city  —(Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, LasVegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco,  Seattle, Tampa, Washington.)

 

  • 4% up from last year
  • 1% up from last month

10 city—(Boston, Chicago, Denver, Vegas, LA, Florida, N.Y., San Diego, Miami, San Francisco)

  • 7% up from last year
  • 1.0% up from last month

 

Portland–#26 in population countrywide but included nonetheless. Take note Timbers Army.

12.3% up from last year

1.7% up from last year

timbers army 2

The Actual Report:Case Shiller June 28, 2016

Dustin Miller

Broker/Portland Metro Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group

 

 





Portland Metro March 2016 Market Action

14 04 2016
early harvest

Early Harvest

March is a month of new growth.  First the crocus, then the daffodils and lastly the tulips emerge from the ground along with the new homes coming on the market.  This year it appears that the buyers are beating the animals at gobbling up the new growth on the market.  Closed sales are up over 40% this month.  We are not used to breaking new records in the housing market after the groundhog predicts an early spring.  This market is like harvesting tomatoes in August for Portland!

Tomatoes

Compared to Last Year

  • Inventory down to 1.3 months from 1.9.
  • Closed sales up 4.4%.
  • Pending sales down 9.1%
  • New listings down 5.2%.
  • Average Sales Price up 14.2%
  • Median Sales Price 15.5%

Compared to Last Month

  • Inventory down to 1.3 months.
  • Closed sales up 41.5%
  • Pending sales up 10.4%
  • New listings up 17.7%
  • Average Sales Price up 5.5%
  • Median Sales Price up 6.3%

 

The last time we had a jump this high in a single month was August 2005 of 5.4% for the Average Sales Price and 5.18% for the Median Sales Price.  Which means this is the highest price increase month-to-month in Portland’s recorded history!

lopez

Lopez Lomong

Sure enough, the figures for the average sales price and the median sales price are also the highest we have ever seen in both categories.

Danger

Is it a Bubble? Right now, all indicators are pointing more toward a slowing down to a normal balanced market rather than a burst of a bubble down the road.  Incomes are barely keeping up and regulations have kept a tight rein on unsecured debt in the mortgage-backed securities market.

bubble-burst

The Full Report:  March Market Action 2016

Dustin Miller
Broker/Market Analyst

 

 

 





RMLS MARKET ACTION FEBRUARY 2016

14 03 2016

scary

News?…..

 

It is in the numbers.  We are starting this year out on price $1000.00 above the highest recorded Average Sales price for 2015.  That is a little scary for Portlanders.  We don’t want to be anywhere near the top or breaking records.  Historically we are always a market which is slow to rise and hanging in the middle.  With this kind of start we need to be thinking about the future and what it holds for us.

200-meters-starting-blocks

Should buyers be more cautious on what they are willing to pay to help reign in the race?  Or, should sellers take the more conservative, but sound financial offer in a multiple offer situation in order to ensure a stable transaction?

 

We will find out in the summer where the prices are usually the highest for us…

off in the distance

 

Compared to Last Year

Inventory down to 1.8 months from 3.0.

Closed sales up 10%.

Pending sales up 9.9%

New listings up 0.4%.

Average Sales Price up 11.3%

Median Sales Price 10.5%

 

Compared to Last Month

Inventory steady at 1.8 months.

Closed sales down 2.5%

Pending sales up 24.2%

New listings up 15%

Average Sales Price up 2.6%

Median Sales Price up 1.6%

 

 

 

The Full Report  February Market Action 2016

 

Dustin Miller

Real Estate Market Analyst