The NAR’s Numbers Today

25 10 2010

The NAR’s news today is quite interesting.  As a nation, we had a jump in sales on a national level between August and September of 2010.  It is a lot of talk about a short-term number for a national scale.  Will it get the same press in October if we go 10% down again?  Sales went from 4.12 million homes to 4.53 million homes sold.  That seems like news except that nobody really in our industry lives in those types of numbers.  If you want to talk about 10% more sheets of TP on a roll that could mean a lot to someone, but in Portland we went up 1.2% in sales numbers from the August numbers (a total of 18 homes).  If you were one of the 18, that was a big deal! 

Over last year is the story though.  Portland is down 23.5% in sales over last year for September and down 1.2% in price for NAR’s numbers.  The sales numbers are depressing and the price decline is impressive;  of course, these numbers are still too general to price a condo in The Pearl.   The NAR’s metro area report is mixed on sales price over last year with a tad over half being in negative territory and another good chunk being up a single digit in price even though their sales are down.

It is too soon to predict, but I think Lawrence Yun of NAR wanted to see what would happen if he said something snazzy like, A housing recovery is taking place but will be choppy at times depending on the duration and impact of a foreclosure moratorium. But the overall direction should be a gradual rising trend in home sales with buyers responding to historically low mortgage interest rates and very favorable affordability conditions.”

Politics.  If it goes up…he is right.  If it goes down…he is right.  We have been choppy at times for 3 years now.  The potential low inventory of the Fall/Winter 2010 could increase sales, but if the economic conditions loom over our area, both could stay low.

NAR Existing HS_Oct. 2010

NAR Existing HS per area_Oct. 2010

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Latest Complete Portland Metro Market Report

20 10 2010

Here is the latest Portland Metro Market Report for October 13, 2010 back 30 days versus the 3 month rolling averages.

 

Well, the negative signs are still dominating these sheets with some significant drops in areas.  And the positive signs are also adding a ray of hope for the last 30 days as well.  The average sales price for pending homes in N. Portland is up almost 3%; Gresham and Sandy ticked up a bit in the pending category but had significant declines in bank-owned and vacant properties.  Milwaukie and Gladstone lost a big chunk of their short sales in the sold category too.  Lake Oswego was most-likely hit with the recent national foreclosure halt with a loss of 111% of its bank-owned properties under sold status.  Pending homes in NW Washington County and Tigard/Tualatin/Wilsonville also had a small positive number for sales price.  The decline in short sales and bank-owned homes seems to be a finger in the dam at the moment with some big numbers dotting the averages.

 

The good news on sales numbers for this report is that up seems to be winning over down.  Positive numbers, some significant, are back down in the lower to mid level price ranges.  The higher priced homes above $700,000 didn’t come out as rosy this report compared to the last one in September.  In the overall sales totals we are down in every category except under $200,000 (which went up 10.1%).  Low single-digit losses landed in the under $300,000 and the under $600,000 marks though which isn’t too poor of a performance.  Lastly, the whole shebang totaled up, came to the real estate sales numbers being down by 3.68% over the 3-month average. 

Enjoy!

Complete Portland Metro Report October 2010

 





SEPTEMBER MARKET ACTION

15 10 2010

The new Market Action report from RMLS looks like we are down in AVERAGE SALE PRICE from September 2009 by 3.5% which puts us now at -2.36 % between January and September of this year.  If new listings fell 7.3% from the previous month and closed sales increased by 1.3% and pending sales decreased by 6.2%. 

My opinion of this is that sellers have given up on this market. 

As of today, there are 12,243 homes on the market in the Portland Metro area.  In the last month (Sept. 15-Oct. 15) 3,379 homes have been removed off the market either by canceling or withdrawing their listing; or, having their listing expire.  The RMLS statistic for new listings in this report ending September 30th is 3549 which means another 170 homes were removed from the market in the last 15 days.  Granted some of the these homes may be part of the “new listing” figure too by switching brokers or changing RMLS#s; but, the fact is, that houses are coming off the market at a greater rate than pending or closed sales can handle to balance them out. 

The good news…. If the inventory number goes against the seasonal trend for the Fall and Winter and actually drops further, buyers who “have” to buy, will have less to choose from and the sellers who stay on the market may finally sell their home out of an unforeseen circumstance of this coming market.

 REVISED September 2010 Market Action