The NAR’s Numbers Today

25 10 2010

The NAR’s news today is quite interesting.  As a nation, we had a jump in sales on a national level between August and September of 2010.  It is a lot of talk about a short-term number for a national scale.  Will it get the same press in October if we go 10% down again?  Sales went from 4.12 million homes to 4.53 million homes sold.  That seems like news except that nobody really in our industry lives in those types of numbers.  If you want to talk about 10% more sheets of TP on a roll that could mean a lot to someone, but in Portland we went up 1.2% in sales numbers from the August numbers (a total of 18 homes).  If you were one of the 18, that was a big deal! 

Over last year is the story though.  Portland is down 23.5% in sales over last year for September and down 1.2% in price for NAR’s numbers.  The sales numbers are depressing and the price decline is impressive;  of course, these numbers are still too general to price a condo in The Pearl.   The NAR’s metro area report is mixed on sales price over last year with a tad over half being in negative territory and another good chunk being up a single digit in price even though their sales are down.

It is too soon to predict, but I think Lawrence Yun of NAR wanted to see what would happen if he said something snazzy like, A housing recovery is taking place but will be choppy at times depending on the duration and impact of a foreclosure moratorium. But the overall direction should be a gradual rising trend in home sales with buyers responding to historically low mortgage interest rates and very favorable affordability conditions.”

Politics.  If it goes up…he is right.  If it goes down…he is right.  We have been choppy at times for 3 years now.  The potential low inventory of the Fall/Winter 2010 could increase sales, but if the economic conditions loom over our area, both could stay low.

NAR Existing HS_Oct. 2010

NAR Existing HS per area_Oct. 2010

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