The Q3 Case-Shiller Report

30 11 2010

Will it pass quickly and mercifully?

Portland is down again along with 17 other metropolitan markets.  According to David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee for Standard and Poor’s, “many analysts will argue that a double dip will be confirmed before Spring.”

All in all, the indices show a decline of 2% in the third quarter after the gain of 4.7% in the second quarter.  Eighteen metropolitan cities and the two composite indexes were down from August to September of this year.  

The peak of prices in June/July 2006 has declined 33.5% (10-City) and 32.6% (20-City) to date.  Nationally, prices are now at mid-2003 levels. 

From August to September, Portland is down 1.9% and 3.6% for the year to date.  Seasonally adjusted, this decline is 1.7%.

The good news, if you bought your home in the year 2000, according to Standard and Poor’s, we are still up 44.3% overall.  Portland is number 8 on the list for appreciation since 2000.  Washington D.C. and Los Angeles are at the top.

Hang in there, the storm isn’t as bad as last year where the lowest prices seem to be on record.  Hopefully, this dip will be merciful if the economy can find new life soon.

–Dustin Miller

Q3 S&P/Case-Shiller Report in Full





Complete November Portland Metro Report

24 11 2010

This month’s RMLS Market Action was a sobering affair… so the numbers this report provides will seem more encouraging.  Especially since this information is based on data acquired between October 13th and November 13th, 2010 and the RMLS Market Action is only for October.

 

The sales numbers are a mixed bag to say the least with some surprising low spots like West Portland Pending under $300K and sold under $200K.  NW Washington County also had a rough patch in the sold numbers under $300K, Beaverton/Aloha dropped quickly in the past 4 months under the $400K mark and Area 151 Tigard/Tualatin didn’t have one closed sale in the under $600K category as they have before.  Positive numbers are all over these pages of the report which is a good sign that perhaps a trend for an improved Fall could be in the works.  The overall numbers are in the black with a couple exceptions and the general total is up by 1% which counters the RMLS Report.

 

As far as price goes, it is generally down in the sold categories (where it counts) with some bright spots like SE Portland, Lake Oswego and Hillsboro.  Bank-owned homes are on the upward trend as anticipated, vacancies are improving and short sales have dropped off drastically in a few markets.

 

Read on and enjoy!

Complete Portland Metro Report November 2010

 





Portland October Market Action

24 11 2010

 

Another downturn when I was hoping for the upside of the inventory last month.
Overall closed sales are down over last year at this time by 35.7% and pending sales down 21.5%.
Over September 2010 closed sales are down 7.7% but pending sales are up 3%!
The other down is the average sales price from last year by 2.4%. Over last month it is down by 1.1%

The inventory unfortunately grew as well a tad from 10.5 months to 10.7 months.

October 2010 Market Action





What The October 26 Case-Shiller Report Means To Portland Oregon

1 11 2010

October 26, 2010 CS Chart

All in all, we have heard the story far too much by now—prices are down and sales are trending that way too.  The Case-Shiller report generally tells us all what the news sources have been saying for a month before it comes out.  The Case-Shiller report comes out on the last Tuesday of the month and reports on the data from 2 months prior.  So this report had data from August 2010 backward.

 

Instead of hashing over this information in detail, I simply wanted to bring to light two interesting pieces of data in this report: 1) The graph has turned down for the first time since Q1 of 2009; 2) Prices are at late 2003/early 2004 levels.

 

Another downturn after a long spiral down in 2007-2009 and then a long climb up from early 2009 to now is nothing short of a disappointment.  Housing is a driver of the economy since we have moved further and further from natural resources as our main industries.  We won’t know what this trough looks like until it is over.  However, we will hear it coming from the news before we see it in the Case-Shiller Report next month. 

 

As for prices– in September 2010 in Portland, the average sales price was $279,900 according to the Regional Multiple Listing Service.  That is roughly equal to our prices in May of 2005 ($278,100).  If we were truly at our prices of September 2003, the Portland Metro Area would be 18.86% further below our current price right now.  That just might devastate us I would think.  Although prices are low and lowering, it appears Portland is at least bucking the national trend and holding its value better than many other areas of the country.

Case Shiller Price Compare

October 26, 2010 CS Report