Case Shiller January 25, 2011 Portland, OR

25 01 2011

News is not a surprise, but the headline instills fear into the marketplace…”With these numbers more analysts will be calling for a double-dip in home prices.”

What?  Yes.  It is partly true.  Eight cities out of the 20 city composite in the Case-Shiller index have confirmed that their current prices (November 2010) are below their April 2009 lows.  The folks at Standard & Poor’s are breathing a prediction that many other cities will follow suit in the coming months.

What got missed?  San Diego posted yet another gain, though small, of .1%!

The fear is temporary.  Like a shot from the doctor, it will keep us healthy in the long term.  If you must or want to sell now, do it and take whatever price you can get.  If you want to buy, do it, the further drops are not considered losses if loan rates go up 1% in the next year, you lose 10% in home purchase value and gain 10% in monthly payment amount as well.

It is worth it if you can, but please consult others in the process.  Right now the wealthy and near-weathy AND smart are purchasing second homes and high-end real estate in many markets across the country.  That is a message worth listening to at the moment.

Here is the report!

January 25, 2011 CS Chart


Portland Metro Sales Report for January 2011

19 01 2011

This month’s report shows a tremendous shut down of real estate activity in the last 30 days compared to the 3-month rolling average.  It seems like many of the buyers and sellers just plain gave up trying in the past 30 days or fell into a well.  Like 2008, when I started these reports to find out where the buyers were, the only positive activity seems to be in the lowest price range.

North Portland, Milwaukie, Gladstone, Oregon City, Beaverton, Aloha all had a double digit increase in activity under $200k and one under $400k.  Most of the numbers however are in the red— in some cases drastically.  Pending sales in Hillsboro decreased 81% under the $400k mark.  NE Portland sold homes decreased 90.8% under $300k. 

Other bright spots were sold homes in West Portland in the $400k-$600k mark and the $900k-$1M mark.  Also, NW Washington County saw sold activity rise considerably in the categories under $400k.

Overall, the only price categories which achieved an increase were $900-$1M and under $200k; and, the number of sales are down from the rolling average by 18.7%!

The average price is similar with some more bright spots.  Pending homes in Gresham were the big winner with 29.23% appreciation against the average.  Newly active homes in Hillsboro were the big loser at -19.94%.  Short sales and bank-owned homes are also rising as the prices are still inching downward.  Gresham and Sandy also had a noticeable drop in bank-owned pending homes, vacant homes and short sales.

When down this low for the month, the only way to look is UP.

Complete Portland Metro Report January 2011

Get the full report here.

January 2011 Market Action Report

15 01 2011

 Finally, the inventory we were hoping for last month!  New listings decreased by 22.2% percent and dropped those Christmas feasting pounds of 2.3 months off the inventory.  Portland Metro is now at 7.9 months.  What does that mean?  Well, it means buyers and sellers are inching closer to a balanced market where homes sell slowly but surely; and, less pressure is put on the average and median sale price.


The Numbers

  1. Inventory December 2009 was 7.7 months and was 7.9 months for this report.
  2. Pending sales +6% over Dec. 2009 and -15.2% from Nov. 2010.
  3. Closed sales -2.9% over Dec. 2009 and +14% from Nov. 2010.
  4.  Ave. sale price is -5.2% from Dec. 2009 and +2.2% from Nov. 2010.
  5. Median sale price is -5% from last year and -1.3% from last month.
  6. 10 houses pending over $1M and 13 closed in December.  With ten possible closings on the horizon the average sale price number could hang in there for another month.
  • Last report = 12 houses pending over $1M pending and only 5 closed.  If these all close in 30 days we could see a significant price improvement in the average sales price and less of one in the median sale price.
  • Result of prediction TRUE.  “Significant” was wrong but decent in proportion to falling prices.

    7.  Time on the market is +.0006% and holding nicely to finish the

           year -6.8%.

Baby Steps to the market...

 We can’t predict the future really, but we can celebrate the break in the sun for now.  As Bob Wiley said in the 1991 movie, What About Bob?, “…baby step onto the elevator… baby step into the elevator… I’m in the elevator….AHHHHHHHHHHHH!”

January 2011 Market Action