February 22, 2011 Case-Shiller Report for Portland, Oregon

22 02 2011

Nothing new.  A small confirmation of what we already knew right now.  “We have seen more markets hit new lows in each of the past three months,” said David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s.

 One thing we have to take into account is that this report measured data in Q4 of 2010.  It is currently Q1 in 2011.  Many of the indications I am seeing now are a small tick up in numbers, not necessarily price numbers, but sales numbers.

 In this report, San Diego and Washington D.C. survived one more report of staying up 1.7% and 4.1% year over year respectively.  Vegas, Miami, Phoenix and Tampa all hit new lows in December 2010.  Atlanta, Charlotte, Portland and Seattle also showed weakness and posted lows since the peak of 2007.

 Blitzer also said, “The National Index is within a percentage point of the low it set in the first quarter of 2009.”

 Right now Portland is at a 138.23 level which means it is up 38.23% from the “zero” price point set at (100) in the year 2000.  Portland’s previous low in the last Case-Shiller report was 139.92.  This is near equal to the March 2005 when Case-Shiller Feb 22,1011Portland was at 138.30.  This is positive news compared to many of the other cities across our nation which are near 2003 levels; or, even Cleveland and Las Vegas which are now below January 2000 levels.

Keep swimming, land is near!  

Here is the full report.  

Case-Shiller Feb 22,1011


Portland Metro Sales Report

21 02 2011

The latest Portland Metro Sales and Price Report is back in the saddle as expected.

With January’s report being typically low, February is also being seasonally up-trending.  The see-saw continues in a good direction.  Sales have picked up in the lower prices ranges of many areas for Portland.  Highlights are in the North Portland solds, SE Portland solds, Gresham and Milwaukie under $200K, Lake Oswego pendings, West Portland under $500K and…WOW.. NW Washington County in all categories under $400K!  Although sales are down 18.7 percent in general, there is a decent rise in sales overall between $900K-$1M and the under $200K categories.

We are also seeing a rise in prices in North Portland sold homes, Gresham and Sandy pendings, Lake Oswego solds and West Portland pendings and solds.  Even though the overall average sales prices are down 2.58% for pendings and 6.37% for solds, the spottiness of upward categories is a good sign that the market is in recovery mode.  It could be interest rates or possibly the sense that the bottom is too close to call.  Bank-owned properties are up across the board along with short sales.  The big hit is in Gresham and Sandy pending categories too.  They are down over 200% for pending and sold homes for the month.

Read on and enjoy!

 Complete Portland Metro Report February 2011

February 2011 Portland Real Estate Market Action

16 02 2011

Pre-Jump Wheely

It appears we are following suit on inventory in Portland with a huge 62.5% jump in new listings bringing us up 3 ½ months to 11.3 months.  Just like Evel Knievel, this trend is typical for us “new market era” realtors…we’ve seen it before in each year and we know what the other side will look like when we get there.In 2009-2010, we were worse off with almost a 5-month gain.  In 2008-2009, we were up 5.1 months and 2007-2008 was 4.3 months.  Back in the good ‘ole days between 2006-2007 we gained 1.7 months between December and January.

 Compared to Last Year

Inventory down 1.3 months.

Closed sales up 5%.

Pending sales down 3%

New listings dropped 20.5%.

Compared to Last Month

Closed sales down 29.2%

Pending sales up 23.1%

New listings cranked up 62.5%

The Red Pill or The Blue Pill

 The blue pill to swallow is on price.  The red pill is on sales —down 29.2% for closings, but up 23.1% for pending sales.  That fuels the figures for next month’s market action in a good direction. 

$ Compared to Last Year

Ave. Price down 11.9%

Med.Price down 10.4%.

$ Compared to Last Month

Ave. Price down 10.5% (practically as much as last year’s total!)

Med. Price 6.5%

 The closed sales figure could be a reflection of “attitude” from people involved in real estate, be it buyers or sellers.  The happy home buyer was confused with inventory and teetering on a new record low from the Case Schiller report recently.  The frustrated seller was on the ropes in the ring of dropping prices, trying to pick up a buyer with only the “slash price” choice if he wanted to sell to a small pool (kiddie-sized, uncomfortably warm and 18” deep) of buyers.

 To end on an up note…this slowing process of price decline will help Portland to land softly in the short-term future.  Although we didn’t think it could go down any further, it did.  The looming interest rates and slow-growing economy will start to point at another new bottom figure soon.  We just won’t know for sure until we get behind it. 

The Full Report

 February 2011 Portland Oregon Market Action