February 2011 Portland Real Estate Market Action

16 02 2011

Pre-Jump Wheely

It appears we are following suit on inventory in Portland with a huge 62.5% jump in new listings bringing us up 3 ½ months to 11.3 months.  Just like Evel Knievel, this trend is typical for us “new market era” realtors…we’ve seen it before in each year and we know what the other side will look like when we get there.In 2009-2010, we were worse off with almost a 5-month gain.  In 2008-2009, we were up 5.1 months and 2007-2008 was 4.3 months.  Back in the good ‘ole days between 2006-2007 we gained 1.7 months between December and January.

 Compared to Last Year

Inventory down 1.3 months.

Closed sales up 5%.

Pending sales down 3%

New listings dropped 20.5%.

Compared to Last Month

Closed sales down 29.2%

Pending sales up 23.1%

New listings cranked up 62.5%

The Red Pill or The Blue Pill

 The blue pill to swallow is on price.  The red pill is on sales —down 29.2% for closings, but up 23.1% for pending sales.  That fuels the figures for next month’s market action in a good direction. 

$ Compared to Last Year

Ave. Price down 11.9%

Med.Price down 10.4%.

$ Compared to Last Month

Ave. Price down 10.5% (practically as much as last year’s total!)

Med. Price 6.5%

 The closed sales figure could be a reflection of “attitude” from people involved in real estate, be it buyers or sellers.  The happy home buyer was confused with inventory and teetering on a new record low from the Case Schiller report recently.  The frustrated seller was on the ropes in the ring of dropping prices, trying to pick up a buyer with only the “slash price” choice if he wanted to sell to a small pool (kiddie-sized, uncomfortably warm and 18” deep) of buyers.

 To end on an up note…this slowing process of price decline will help Portland to land softly in the short-term future.  Although we didn’t think it could go down any further, it did.  The looming interest rates and slow-growing economy will start to point at another new bottom figure soon.  We just won’t know for sure until we get behind it. 

The Full Report

 February 2011 Portland Oregon Market Action




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