April 26, 2011 Case-Shiller Report For Portland Oregon

26 04 2011

The S&P Case-Shiller Report came out today and has some similar news from the last report—prices are still down.  However, the April report has some bright spots in it which are hard to pick up in the five pages.  First and foremost, the Case-Shiller Report tracks detailed data in the past, and follows the closer reports we have in Portland.  In laymen’s terms, they report on stuff we already know and we tend to know the trends locally before they do.

 The report states, “There is very little, if any, good news about housing. Prices continue to weaken, trends in sales and construction are disappointing,” said David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “Ten of the 11 MSAs that recorded index lows in January fell further in February. The one exception, Detroit, is 30% below its 2000 price level. The 20-City Composite is within a hair’s breadth of a double dip. Fourteen MSAs and both Composites have continued to decline month-over-month for more than six consecutive months as of February.

 Portland, Oregon is doing better than most of the cities on the composite and is close in line with the average of the 20 city composite figures.  It is down 1.6% between January and February 2011 and down 7% for the year.  Seattle is down a little further to June/July 2004 levels as well.

 Compared with the past, these trends seem to have two ways to turn-around—they go down in three points (months) by down/bottom/up or hit a bottom point of a single month and then go right back up again.  We don’t have a crystal ball to predict the future but we do have the numbers from March and part of April in for the Portland Metro area and it appears to be trending upward.  The RMLS of Portland reported an average price increase for March of 6.8%.  That could be the point we may see in next month’s Case-Shiller report.

 Detroit!  Can we take a moment to celebrate Detroit too?  It has been one of the cities we always turn to when comparing our own state of the real estate world, “Well, at least we are not Detroit or Vegas!”  Rumored to be one of the cities where you could get two houses for the price of one, Detroit hit a bottom of 67.30 which took them back to 1994 levels. 

 All in all, it is about perspective and attitude.  Do we want this to be the bottom?  Do we want this to go deeper?  Have we settled on hoping for the best but expecting the worst in this case?

 What do you see here?

Dustin Miller

Realty Trust Group

DustinM@RealtyTrust.com

Advertisements




Complete April Portland Metro Real Estate Report Out!

20 04 2011

Land Ho!

 It appears the ships coming in have some buyers and sellers on board.  The numbers in this report appear to be a confirmation on the RMLS April Market Action report which also showed some renewed signs of activity

 Significant increases in the total number of sales per area of Portland Metro seem to be more the trend.  For instance, North Portland picked up some sales in the higher price ranges and NE Portland saw a 43.6% rise in sales under $200,000.  Southeast saw similar numbers as well.  Down the list we can see numbers like an increase of 46.1% of homes pending under $400,000 in West Portland; and, Tigard/Tualatin/Wilsonville also have solid numbers between $200,000 and $500,000.

 As a whole, sales numbers across the whole Portland area have increase in double digits.  Some are startling such as all of them above $600,000.  In general, the Portland Metro real estate market has increased 24.6% over the previous 3 months averaged together.

 On the price end, it less dramatic, but, shows a lot of positive numbers compared to the previous months.  Gresham and Sandy took a hit in both pending and sales categories with a 21.53% and 16.46% decrease in sales price.  Lake Oswego was the big victor with a 14.36% increase in average pending sales price.  Overall the average pending sale price is up 3.67% and the sold price is only up .41%, but it, too, is up.

 I am also seeing mixed numbers depending on the specific area of Portland for bank-owned homes, short sales and vacant homes.  Overall though, all of these categories have increased pretty significantly.

 It is not necessarily frenzy out there since the previous months are considered to be the “off” season.  I have heard multiple accounts of some multiple offers out there, including some of my own, but the interesting fact is that many of those still are not full-priced offers.  Buyers are definitely cautious still based on many different market indicators.  That being said, many different people involved in the housing industry don’t mind taking off their rain coats and letting out a sigh of relief for the moment.  Worthy of saluting the ships coming in even…

  

Enjoy the full report and please feel free to contact me regarding any questions.  I love to talk past, present and future!

 Complete Portland Metro April Report

Dustin Miller

Broker

Realty Trust Group





April 2011 Portland Market Action

16 04 2011

The ice is melting and, dare I say it, we may see a bottom here, for 6 months or longer.  This month on the sales prices, the average sales price is up 6.8% and the median sales price in up 0.6%.  Portland is down between February 2010 and February 2011 for the average sales price by 6.8% and the median sales price by 10%.  These numbers are far below the trends for year-to-year numbers. 

 Bright spots within the Portland Metro Area are NE again with a .4% drop in year-long sales price.  On number of sales, we are seeing movement in Lake Oswego/West Linn at 5.2% and West Portland at 3.2% over last year.  Columbia County is also up from last year by 1.7%. 

On the price end, NE Portland is the only victor, if you could call it that, with a cut of only – 0.4% for the year.  Most are in single digit drops, but others still plummeting with double digits.

Compared to Last Year

Inventory down 0.7 months.

Closed sales down 10.2%.

Pending sales down 16.2%

New listings dropped 38.7%.

Compared to Last Month

Closed sales up 50.4%

Pending sales up 26.5%

New listings dropped 6%

 The ice is melting…learn to swim or seek higher ground.  Either way, the small steps toward improvement could mean the steals are behind us.  Now is possibly the best time to get a seller to sell at the lowest point.  Winter 2011 could be another low point too since we don’t really know, but the interest rates then could really kill that marketplace if they go up a point.

It is a comeback in the making, just like RTV, be ready…

 April 2011 Market Action