April 26, 2011 Case-Shiller Report For Portland Oregon

26 04 2011

The S&P Case-Shiller Report came out today and has some similar news from the last report—prices are still down.  However, the April report has some bright spots in it which are hard to pick up in the five pages.  First and foremost, the Case-Shiller Report tracks detailed data in the past, and follows the closer reports we have in Portland.  In laymen’s terms, they report on stuff we already know and we tend to know the trends locally before they do.

 The report states, “There is very little, if any, good news about housing. Prices continue to weaken, trends in sales and construction are disappointing,” said David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “Ten of the 11 MSAs that recorded index lows in January fell further in February. The one exception, Detroit, is 30% below its 2000 price level. The 20-City Composite is within a hair’s breadth of a double dip. Fourteen MSAs and both Composites have continued to decline month-over-month for more than six consecutive months as of February.

 Portland, Oregon is doing better than most of the cities on the composite and is close in line with the average of the 20 city composite figures.  It is down 1.6% between January and February 2011 and down 7% for the year.  Seattle is down a little further to June/July 2004 levels as well.

 Compared with the past, these trends seem to have two ways to turn-around—they go down in three points (months) by down/bottom/up or hit a bottom point of a single month and then go right back up again.  We don’t have a crystal ball to predict the future but we do have the numbers from March and part of April in for the Portland Metro area and it appears to be trending upward.  The RMLS of Portland reported an average price increase for March of 6.8%.  That could be the point we may see in next month’s Case-Shiller report.

 Detroit!  Can we take a moment to celebrate Detroit too?  It has been one of the cities we always turn to when comparing our own state of the real estate world, “Well, at least we are not Detroit or Vegas!”  Rumored to be one of the cities where you could get two houses for the price of one, Detroit hit a bottom of 67.30 which took them back to 1994 levels. 

 All in all, it is about perspective and attitude.  Do we want this to be the bottom?  Do we want this to go deeper?  Have we settled on hoping for the best but expecting the worst in this case?

 What do you see here?

Dustin Miller

Realty Trust Group





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