May 31, 2011 Case-Shiller Report

31 05 2011

March's News

The Case-Shiller Report is out today for the nation.  It is reporting on data up through March 2011 and confirming a double dip in home prices nationwide.  The company is doing its best to report the facts up to these dates and then add a little more fear into the market by using this quote from David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices, “This month’s report is marked by the confirmation of a double-dip in home prices across much of the nation. The National Index, the 20-City Composite and 12 MSAs all hit new lows with data reported through March 2011. The National Index fell 4.2% over the first quarter alone, and is down 5.1% compared to its year-ago level. Home prices continue on their downward spiral with no relief in sight.”

 The last sentence was where he went a little south.  We can see some relief in sight across the nation and locally.  In short, the relief in sight we have seen locally is that April and May had an increase in prices for the Portland Metropolitan Area.  Not huge, but still what I would consider a relief in sight. Portland went up 6.8% in average sale price from February 2011 to March 2011 and 2.4% from March 2011 to April 2011.  In order for Portland to reach mid-2002 levels, as the National Index is now posting for March, it would have to lose another 20% in overall home prices.

 In this report, Portland is near September 2004 levels and Seattle is near July 2004 levels.  Washington D.C. is the only MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) displaying positive trends with an annual growth rate of +4.3% and a 1.1% increase from its February level.  Seattle also hit a bright spot with a +0.1% gain of February.

 All in all, the report is confirming what we have been seeing far too long as a trend nationally.  What we can expect though, is the next 2-3 months confirming what we know now as well . . . and that is that prices are improving in the Portland Metropolitan area.  If you live here and are buying or selling real estate now, you would know that the lower price ranges and some close-in Eastside neighborhoods are seeing a heavy level of competition for desirable homes which bring multiple offers in some cases.  For now, without the “tax credit” we can take that as a positive overall trend for the day and hope for better numbers in the future.


      Heavy seas are not on the immediate horizon.


Case Shiller May 31, 2011

Dustin Miller

Realty Trust Group




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