Case-Shiller Home Price Indices June 28, 2011 Report

28 06 2011

The Case-Shiller Report is out today and it did what I thought it would do…it went up!  The report covers data up through April 2011 and back. 

 “In a welcome shift from recent months, this month is better than last – April’s numbers beat March,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “However, the seasonally adjusted numbers show that much of the improvement reflects the beginning of the Spring-Summer home buying season. It is much too early to tell if this is a turning point or simply due to some warmer weather.”

 Well, David and I seem to always be butting heads on his use of negative adjectives in the recent months.  In this report he uses words like “small” and “scant” when I think he could just eliminate them from his report and stick to the facts.   Last month he said, “Home prices continue on their downward spiral with no relief in sight.”  Perhaps it is time for a little “focus on the positive and eeeeeliminate the negative,” as Harvey MacKay, motivational speaker and best-selling author once said.

 The 10-city and 20-city composites went up 0.8% and 0.7% respectively between March and April 2011. If you look back a year, these composites are down -3.1% and -4.0% from the April 2010 levels.  Existing home sales are up, in general, nationally and the S&P credit default indices are showing a decline in new defaults since last November.

 In this report, Portland is near September 2004 levels and Seattle is near July 2004 levels.  This statement is the exact statement I made from last month.  Which means this could be an indication that a leveling off could be occurring.  Two months at the same number is one way to track a possible starting trend.  We have had these types of trends three times in the past four years, April 2008, March 2009 and January 2010.  It can be considered seasonal for the “new season” in real estate for now.

 I think it is o.k. to look up for now as our local numbers will most likely confirm an improvement for next month’s Case-Shiller report as well.



S&P Case-Shiller June 28,2011   The full report in .pdf form.

Dustin Miller

Realty Trust Group




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