Case-Shiller Home Price Indices September 27, 2011 Report

27 09 2011


The Case-Shiller Report showed another increase for its 10- and 20- city composites for the fourth month in a row. It was up 0.9% from June to July 2011.  Good news that another bottom has occurred.  Hopefully it will be our last…

Over last year, the composites are both down -3.7% for the 10-city and -4.1% for the 20-city; however, month to month from June to July both composites and 14 of the 20 MSAs (Metropolitan Statistical Areas) showed an increase in their annual rates for 2011.


“With July’s data we are seeing not only anticipated monthly increases, but some fairly broad improvement in the annual rates of change in home prices,” says David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “This is still a seasonal period of stronger demand for houses, so monthly price increases are expected and were seen in 17 of the 20 cities…”

Well, now he says they are “expected” increases.  As you know, I tend to highly critical of Blitzer’s choice of words since we all seem to be pivoting on them each time a report comes out.  I went over the last four reports this year and haven’t found where they “predicted” this increase.  However, it is still very good news so see the increase month to month and the much lower decrease year to year.

This report has the nation at October 2003 (10-City) and July 2003 (20-city) price levels which is a welcome improvement over the early 2003 price levels reported from Case-Shiller last month.  The report also states that we are -31% and -30.9% below the June/July 2006 peak.

Portland jumped up to the January 2005 level at 135.80 compared to the last report where it was near November 2004 levels.  Seattle went to December 2004 levels at 137.57 compared to being near November 2004 levels last report. 

A shift is taking place.  Hang in there!  Hopefully this one will stick. 


case schiller September 27, 2011

Here is the full report in .pdf form.


Dustin Miller

Realty Trust Group


September 2011 Portland Metro Market Action

15 09 2011



Good News!  Sales are up over last year both in the pending sales category and the closed sales category.  They are also up over last month by 5.6% in the pending homes and 13.4% in the closed homes.



Bad news.  Prices are down again 9.2% over last year in the average sale price and 10% over last year in the median sale price.  Compared to last month, the average sale price is slightly down -1.2% and the median sale price is down -1%.

Once again, the inventory is a big deal.  It is currently at 6.2 months for September 2011.  We have seen this only 3 times in the past four years: June 2011, August 2007 and January 2007.  Remember the last two were still good markets for both buyers and sellers. Inventory is calculated by dividing the amount of homes for sale by the closed sales.  If nothing were to come on the market, it is predicted that it would take 6.2 months for the remaining homes for sale to sell.

The inventory hot spots are North Portland (4.7 months), NE Portland (4.9 months) and Beaverton/Aloha (4.8 months).  The heavier spots are West Portland (7.2 months). Lake Oswego (7.0 months) and Milwaukie (7.9 months).

Dramatically increased sales are good news either way you slice it.  The average and median price being down for the month is hovering at -1% which is not bad when it comes to getting a house sold.  That is only $1000 per $100,000 in real numbers. 

Compared to Last Year

Inventory down 4.8 months.

Closed sales up 30.7%.

Pending sales up 29.6%

New listings down 24.8%.


Compared to Last Month

Closed sales up 5.6%

Pending sales up 13.4%

New listings down 2.1%


 2011 September Market Action

The Full Report