Case-Shiller Home Price Indices October 25, 2011 Report

25 10 2011

The Case-Shiller Report showed yet another increase for its 10- and 20- city composites for the fifth month in a row. It was up 0.2% from July to August 2011.  A sign things are slowly recovering in the housing market.

 

Over last year, the composites are both down -3.5% for the 10-city and -3.8% for the 20-city; however, month to month from July to August both composites and 16 of the 20 MSAs (Metropolitan Statistical Areas) showed an improvement in their annual rates for 2011. Detroit and Washington D.C. actually had positive annual increases in sales price by 2.7% and 0.3% respectively.

 

David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices, actually used words like “improvement,” “good news” and “hope” for the first time in nearly 2 years.

 

“In the August data, the good news is continued improvement in the annual rates of change in home prices…With 16 of 20 cities and both Composites seeing their annual rates of change improve in August, we see a modest glimmer of hope with these data.”

 

The good news is the decline of these rates nationally and Portland locally.  Last month’s report had the decline at -3.7% for the 10-city and -4.1% for the 20-city composite.  Though a slow decline, it is a healthy and welcomed one in the right direction.

 

This report has the nation between September and October 2003 (10-City) and between June/July 2003 (20-city) price levels. The report also states that we are -30.9% and -30.8% below the June/July 2006 peak.

 

Portland slightly moved up almost to the February 2005 level at 135.91 compared to the last report where it was at a January 2005 level.  Seattle moved slightly down to October/November 2004 levels at 137.09 compared to the December 2004 level last report. 

 

This is, as David Blitzer says, “good news,” for the housing industry.  We could potentially see some positive numbers showing up late next spring.

case schiller oct 25, 2011 

 

Here is the full report in .pdf form.

 

 

 

Dustin Miller

 

Realty Trust Group

DustinM@RealtyTrust.com





RMLS MARKET ACTION OCTOBER 2011

15 10 2011

Sales numbers are up over last year both in the pending sales category and the closed sales category.  However, they are down month-over-month from September -12.1% for pending homes and 14.9% for closed homes. 

 

Prices are down again year over year, but improved over September’s report which was -9.2% over last year in the average sale price.  This improved to -4.2% for October 2011.  You could see this as an improvement in year-to-year average sales price of 5%!  The median sales price also improved to -3.8% from last month’s report of -10%. That’s a 6.2% increase from last month. 

 

“Why the improvements,” you may ask?  Inventory.  Simply.  It is currently at 6.7 months for October 2011.  In the previous years of October reports we have seen:  October 2010 was 11 months, October 2009 was 7.9 months, and October 2008 was 11.1 months. With inventory low, buyers have less to choose from and compare.  In many cases buyers must compete for the better houses on the market in their price range. 

 

The inventory slow-down is seasonal for sure in numbers.  But we have conflicting evidence beyond the 3-year mark.  In 2010 we lost a half month of inventory for the same period and in October 2009 we lost two tenths of a month.  In 2008, we gained .7 months and in 2007 we lost .2 months and 2006 we gained .1 months of inventory between September and October’s reports.

 

We haven’t seen this low of an inventory in October in two years.  Once again, we are seeing hot spots closer to downtown on the East side, North Portland and oddly, Hillsboro.  This can be attributed to the desire for walkable neighborhoods and the lower price ranges.  In my monthly Metro Real Estate Report for September, it shows an increase numbers and sales price in these spots as well.

 

 Predictions for the next few months…

 

  • Inventory will drive up the median sales price again slightly.
  • The S&P Case-Shiller report will also reflect this.
  • Inventory will either stay flat or go down.
  • Sales numbers may also decrease with economic instability and further new listings going down.

 

 Compared to Last Year

 

Inventory down 36% to 6.7 months.

 

Closed sales up 13.4%.

 

Pending sales up 17.5%

 

New listings down 29.5%.

 

Compared to Last Month

 

Closed sales down 12.1%

 

Pending sales down 14.9%

 

New listings down 8% to 6.7 months

 

  

 

  

 

 

 

2011 October Market Action

The Full Report

 

 

 





Only Oregon Humor from Jeff Foxworthy

11 10 2011

It was hard to stay on the topic of real estate after reading this one, so I thought I would post this for a little lighter lift to the day.

Flagstaff Hill on the Oregon Trail

‘LIVING IN OREGON’ by Jeff Foxworthy

  • If someone in a Home Depot store offers you assistance, and they don’t work there, you live in Oregon.
  • If you’ve worn shorts, sandals and a parka at the same time, you live in Oregon.
  • If you’ve had a lengthy telephone conversation with someone who dialed the wrong number, you live in Oregon.
  • If you know several people who have hit a deer more than once, you live in Oregon.
  • If you feel guilty throwing aluminum cans or paper in the trash, you live in Oregon.
  • If you have switched from ‘heat’ to ‘A/C’ and back again in the same day, you live in Oregon.
  • If you install security lights on your house and garage but leave both doors unlocked, you live in Oregon.
  • If you can drive 75 mph through 2 feet of snow during a raging blizzard without flinching, you live in Central, Southern or Eastern Oregon.
  • If you design your kid’s Halloween costume to fit over a 2 layers of clothes or under a raincoat, you live in Oregon.
  • If driving is better in the winter because the potholes are filled with snow and ice, you live in Oregon.
  • If you know all 4 seasons: almost winter, winter, still winter, and road construction, you live in Oregon.
  • If you know more than 10 ways to order coffee, you live in Oregon.
  • If you know more people who own boats than air conditioners, you live in Oregon.
  • If you measure distance in hours, you live in Oregon.
  • If you stand on a deserted corner in the rain waiting for the “Walk” signal, you live in Oregon.
  • If you consider that if it has no snow or has not recently erupted, it is not a real mountain, you live in Oregon.
  • If you can taste the difference between Starbucks, Seattle’s Best, and Dutch Bros, you live in Oregon.
  • If you know the difference between Chinook, Coho and Sockeye salmon, you live in Oregon.
  • If you know how to pronounce Sequim, Puyallup, Clatskanie, Issaquah, Oregon, Umpqua, Yakima and Willamette, you live in Oregon.
  • If you consider swimming an indoor sport, you live in Oregon.
  • If you know that Boring is a city and not just a feeling, you live in Oregon.
  • If you can tell the difference between Japanese, Chinese and Thai food, you live in Oregon.
  • If you never go camping without waterproof matches and a poncho, you live in Oregon.
  • If you have actually used your mountain bike on a mountain, you live in Oregon.
  • If you think people who use umbrellas are either wimps or tourists, you live in Oregon.
  • If you buy new sunglasses every year, because you cannot find the old ones after such a long time, you live in Oregon.
  • If you actually understand these jokes, you live or have lived in Oregon.




September 2011 Portland Metro Real Estate Report

1 10 2011

  Getting Healthy!

September is full of interesting pockets.  It shows areas where we are getting healthy   with small percentages of positives and negatives as well as some odd sways in areas which leave me scratching my head.

In short, this month saw North Portland hit negative categories for sold homes where it normally would not have.  NE Portland, SE Portland, Milwaukie, West Portland, NW Washington County, you name it, saw a dip in the sales numbers for the under $200K category which could be indicating a small hiccup (though school-time seasonal) in sales in a normally strong price range.

The other oddities fall in the spotty increases like Gresham/ Sandy with positive numbers across the board in the pending home category, increases in the high-end for Lake Oswego sold homes, increases for Tigard/Tualatin/Wilsonville under $400,000 pending and under $400,000 pending homes for Hillsboro.

Overall, some slight increases in the low end, moderate decreases in the middle and spotty increases in the high end may be the norm for the next 6-12 months as buyers find their niche in this marketplace.  The sales number went down though for this month.  This may bring tougher numbers locally in the RMLS Portland Market Action, Case-Shiller and NAR 2-3 months from now.  Down 5.2% is not really what we were hoping for in a slow growing economy.

As far as price, the numbers were spotty too.  It is worth a quick scan across the board for your specific area.  On price, Gresham/Sandy Active & Lake Oswego/West Linn Pending took hits at -15.85% and -36.79%.  Overall we are down -6.23% over the average on pending home price but up 2.15% on sold home price.

The other categories saw another interesting trend of bank-owned homes split– down -6.23% for Portland pending homes and up 2.15% for the sold homes. 

Short sales saw a big increase in pending homes but a drop in sold homes and the vacant homes are starting to decline too on a small positive end.  Vacancy decrease is a nice indicator of good news though small.

 

Complete Portland Metro Report September 2011

The full report for download

Dustin Miller

Broker

Realty Trust Group

DustinM@RealtyTrust.com