RMLS MARKET ACTION OCTOBER 2011

15 10 2011

Sales numbers are up over last year both in the pending sales category and the closed sales category.  However, they are down month-over-month from September -12.1% for pending homes and 14.9% for closed homes. 

 

Prices are down again year over year, but improved over September’s report which was -9.2% over last year in the average sale price.  This improved to -4.2% for October 2011.  You could see this as an improvement in year-to-year average sales price of 5%!  The median sales price also improved to -3.8% from last month’s report of -10%. That’s a 6.2% increase from last month. 

 

“Why the improvements,” you may ask?  Inventory.  Simply.  It is currently at 6.7 months for October 2011.  In the previous years of October reports we have seen:  October 2010 was 11 months, October 2009 was 7.9 months, and October 2008 was 11.1 months. With inventory low, buyers have less to choose from and compare.  In many cases buyers must compete for the better houses on the market in their price range. 

 

The inventory slow-down is seasonal for sure in numbers.  But we have conflicting evidence beyond the 3-year mark.  In 2010 we lost a half month of inventory for the same period and in October 2009 we lost two tenths of a month.  In 2008, we gained .7 months and in 2007 we lost .2 months and 2006 we gained .1 months of inventory between September and October’s reports.

 

We haven’t seen this low of an inventory in October in two years.  Once again, we are seeing hot spots closer to downtown on the East side, North Portland and oddly, Hillsboro.  This can be attributed to the desire for walkable neighborhoods and the lower price ranges.  In my monthly Metro Real Estate Report for September, it shows an increase numbers and sales price in these spots as well.

 

 Predictions for the next few months…

 

  • Inventory will drive up the median sales price again slightly.
  • The S&P Case-Shiller report will also reflect this.
  • Inventory will either stay flat or go down.
  • Sales numbers may also decrease with economic instability and further new listings going down.

 

 Compared to Last Year

 

Inventory down 36% to 6.7 months.

 

Closed sales up 13.4%.

 

Pending sales up 17.5%

 

New listings down 29.5%.

 

Compared to Last Month

 

Closed sales down 12.1%

 

Pending sales down 14.9%

 

New listings down 8% to 6.7 months

 

  

 

  

 

 

 

2011 October Market Action

The Full Report

 

 

 

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