Case-Shiller Home Prices March 26, 2013 Report

26 03 2013
A new foundation is beginning to be poured.

A new foundation is beginning to be poured.

Another positive national report for housing prices from the Case-Shiller Indices in the March 26, 2013 report has been released. Now this covers the data up to the month of January 2013, so it kind of outlines information we already know.  All in all, the nation seems to be looking up, even the lagging states like New York have finally followed suit and posted some positive numbers. The annual returns of the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices for January 2013, posted respective annual increases of 7.3% and 8.1%, and monthly increases of 0.2% and 0.1%. 

“Economic data continues to support the housing recovery. Single-family home building permits and housing starts posted double-digit year-over-year increases in February 2013. Despite a slight uptick in foreclosure filings, numbers are still down 25% year-over-year. Steady employment and low borrowing rates pushed inventories down to their lowest post-recession levels,” said David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

 

One of the funny buzz words still to this day is low interest rates…we had low interest rates in 2008 when the market was falling apart too and prices and sales were both down. I think we are missing something significant in the mindset of the people in the marketplace as to what they are truly thinking. Perhaps it is the $1.4 Trillion of household wealth that has increased due to improving home prices (according to the NAR) or a more difficult factor such as consumer confidence going up?

 

Portland is ticking upward at this point each 12 month period moving forward. We did see some seasonal month-to-month declines over the winter. It had a year over year increase of 6.5% for December 2012 and January 2013 posted an increase of 8.3%.

 

That is still good news to build on for our future marketplace.

Building Toward the Future

Review the full report here: Case-Shiller March 26, 2013

–Dustin Miller





National Association of Realtors Existing Home Sales Report

22 03 2013

NAR Report March 21, 2013

Sales are up.

Sales are up.

Well, yet another positive report on home sales came in today from NAR.

Summary
1. Sales up each month for the past 20 months nationally; and this month too by 0.8%.
 2. Sales are up 10.2% nationally from February 2012.
3. Inventory at 4.7 months up by 9.6% from February 2012    (January 2013 was 4.2 months)
a. Down 19.2% from February 2012
4. Median Days on the Market was 74 days (24% lower than February 2012)
5. The median existing single-family home price was $173,800 in February, which is 11.3 percent higher than a year ago.

In the West
1. Sales rose 2.6 percent are 1.7 percent above a year ago.
2. Median sale price rose to $237,700, which is 22.7 percent above February 2012.

The charts below give an interesting take on the regions where some areas of note are the increase of sales by 40.5% of homes over $1M. The decrease of sales in homes in $100K is most likely due to the appreciation we have seen in the past year.  As you can see, the West is in the best shape for pricing so far as percentage and just below the NE overall.

Regional Sales by Price Existing Single Family Homes  February 2013

% Change in Sales from 1 Year Ago
Region      $0-100K   $100-250K    $250-500K  $500-750K     $750K-1M       $1M+
Northeast 0.4%         -0.7%                 5.4%             10.5%               4.7%                 4.1%
Midwest   -0.2%        14.0%                33.2%           32.0%              11.7%                26.3%
South        -9.8%        13.8%                24.5%           25.2%               52.0%              23.9%
West          -50.0%     -5.0%                17.5%            29.4%              26.9%              40.5%
U.S.           -12.8%      6.8%                 18.7%            23.1%               27.6%               27.4%

Sales Distribution
Region $0-100K      $100-250K       $250-500K       $500-750K      $750-1M    $1M+
U.S.       24.1%           44.4%                 22.8%                5.5%                   1.5%            1.7%

Sales Price of Existing Homes
Median Average (Mean)      U.S.           Northeast    Midwest   South         West
2013 Jan r                               170,600    226,200      130,500     147,600     238,600
2013 Feb p                              173,600    238,800      129,000     150,500     237,700
vs. last year:                            11.6%        7.6%             7.7%           9.3%           22.7%

Moving Forward

Moving Forward





March 2013 Portland RMLS Market Action

14 03 2013

hills 2Big news on the number of closed and pending sales: 1. Closed sales numbers (1376), best since February 2008,   2. Pending sales numbers are up 11.7% from January 2013 (2834), best since February 2007.

The Spring Season is coming on and the increases may be based on seller perception of whether or not this is the right time to list their homes. If they do, sales will grow both in price and numbers; if not, we may have the inventory continue to drop.  Some hills and valleys in our future…hard to say which.

Predictions for the next month…
o Low inventory will drive up the average and median sales prices again for the year. (I was wrong on the month-         to-month increase last month).
o The S&P Case-Shiller report will also reflect this.
o Inventory will continue to go down as sales numbers are up. On March 7, 2013 I recorded 3.5 months of inventory.

Compared to Last Year
Inventory down to 4.5 months.
Closed sales up 9%.
Pending sales up 1%
New listings down 1.6%.
Average Sales Price up 10.5%
Median Sales Price 14.7%!

Compared to Last Month
Closed sales up 2.4%
Pending sales up 11.8% (way up from last month’s report of -0.9%!)
New listings up 0.6%
Average Sales Price Down 2.0%
Median Sales Price Down 2.4%

valleys 2

The Full Report Here…

March 2013 RMLS Market Action

 





CoreLogic Home Price Index March 2013 Report

6 03 2013

Signs of Recovery

Another positive report nationally for sales prices from the CoreLogic Home Price Index Report released today. All states but Delaware and Illinois posted positive appreciation for the year. The top states were Arizona (+20.1 percent), Nevada (+17.4 percent), Idaho (+14.9 percent), California (+14.1 percent) and Hawaii (+14.0 percent) including distressed sales. The top states excluding distressed sales were Nevada (+17.5 percent), Arizona (+16.5 percent), California (+14.5 percent), Hawaii (+13.9 percent) and Idaho (+13.2 percent).

Oregon posted a 9.1% appreciation including distressed sales and an 8.5% appreciation excluding distressed sales between January 2012-January 2013.

Nationally Including Distressed Sales
Up 9.7% in Price from previous year– January 2012
Up 0.7% in price from previous month– December 2012

Nationally Excluding Distressed Sales
Up 9.0% in Price from previous year– January 2012
Up 1.8% in price from previous month– December 2012

National Prediction Including Distressed sales for February
Up 9.7% in Price from previous year—February 2012
Up 0.3% in price from previous month—January 2013 (Seasonal slow-down)

National Prediction Excluding Distressed sales for February
Up 11.3% in Price from previous year—February 2012
Up 1.8% in Price from previous month—January 2013

The CoreLogic Home Price Index tracks 30 years of repeat sales transactions for the same homes over time for both distressed and non-distressed properties. The data reflects the results of the month prior and further. This is different than the National Association of Realtors Report who is one month back but tracks all home sales as well as pending statistics. And, the Case-Schiller Report reports data 2 months back and beyond of all homes sales. CoreLogic believes this unique system of tracking is slightly more accurate as to home price appreciation and depreciation.

As a comparison, the Case-Shiller Report for December 2012 data posted a 6.8% appreciation for the previous 12 months in their 20-City Composite (as close to National as they get). Portland posted a 6.5% appreciation for the same period. The NAR Report for the nation in January posted a 12.3% appreciation for the year. And, finally, our own Portland Metro RMLS Report posted a 15.5% average sales price and 19.5% median sales price appreciation for January 2012-January 2013. RMLS reported a -0.9% drop in the average sales price month-to-month from December 2012 and a 0% change in the median sales price.

So, what does it all mean? Active recovery… It appears the housing market is the patient on the list for being discharged from the hospital in the future. The spinach can is close enough for home prices to suck through our pipe. It isn’t hard for many of us brokers with boots on the ground in Portland to even have a more optimistic opinion of that statement as well.

Aye, me spinach!

January 2013 Home Price Index Report