April 30, 2013 Case-Shiller Report

30 04 2013

The Goofy 2013 Real Estate Market

This month’s Case Shiller Report took a unique approach to the data and chose to address the perspective of what the housing market looks like now using March 2012 as a bottom of the market-to-date.  The standard “Housing is up” language is once again in it with some quotes of highs and lows.  For instance, Phoenix gained a 23% return from last year and New York gained only 1.9% from last year.  A number we would have been praising 3-4 years ago.

The annual returns of the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices for February 2013, posted respective annual increases of 8.6% and 9.3%, and monthly increases of 0.4% and 0.3%.

“Despite some recent mixed economic reports for March, housing continues to be one of the brighter spots in the economy,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The 2013 first quarter GDP report shows that residential investment accelerated from the 2012 fourth quarter and made a positive contribution to growth.”

Case-Shiller Chart from March 2012

Case-Shiller Chart from March 2012

The unique perspective on what our market looks like over last year shows us that we may be in for a completely different cycle on housing prices.  (See “Spaghetti” Graphic to the Right)  Instead of a slow and steady incline higher, we might have some mountains and valleys during short periods in the future. Portland is doing its usual performance on prices staying right in the middle and out of the limelight.  It posted increases of 9.4% for the year and 0.7% over January 2013.  Portland’s index is now close to prices in September 2010 and August 2005.  This is the kind of bouncing I am suggesting where we just don’t look back to one time when there was a high or low, but two or three possibly.  It is hard to remember 2010 as a time equivalent to now for real estate simply because the pending sales have increased about 65% from 1584 pending sales and 38% from 1399 closed sales in September 2010.


Here’s to the new noodling and trying to figure it out!


Review the Full Report Here    The April 30, 2013 CS Report


–Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Anaylst



10 04 2013
Portland's Market is On Fire!

Portland’s Market is On Fire!

Eyebrow raising numbers this month as the number of pending and sold sales have both gone up significantly: From last month, pending is up 23.4% and sold up 40.6%! As a result, our inventory took another dive 28.8% down to 3.2 months. The last time we had this or lower inventory was June 2006 where it was 2.6 months.

On prices, we went up 6% over the month before on the average sales price and up 3.3% for the median sales price. Usually people try to break these down year to year to show the significances in difference, not this month.


Predictions from last month I was right on…
o Low inventory will drive up the average and median sales prices again for the year. The S&P Case-Shiller report will also reflect this.
o Inventory will continue to go down as sales numbers are up. On March 7, 2013 I recorded 3.5 months of inventory.

Predictions from last month I was wrong on…ZERO!

Compared to Last Year
Inventory down to 3.2 months.
Closed sales up 14.2%.
Pending sales up 15.7%
New listings down 4%.
Average Sales Price up 18.4%
Median Sales Price 15.9%

Compared to Last Month
Closed sales up 40.6%
Pending sales up 23.4% (way up from January’s report of -0.9%!)
New listings up 22.4% (still couldn’t keep the inventory # from going down)
Average Sales Price Up 6%
Median Sales Price Up 3.3%

Great news for Portkand Real Estate

Great news for Portkand Real Estate

Get the mitts!  This tater’s a Hot One!


April 2013 RMLS Market Action

View The Full Report


Dustin Miller

Broker & Market Analyst

Portland, Oregon