April 30, 2013 Case-Shiller Report

30 04 2013

The Goofy 2013 Real Estate Market

This month’s Case Shiller Report took a unique approach to the data and chose to address the perspective of what the housing market looks like now using March 2012 as a bottom of the market-to-date.  The standard “Housing is up” language is once again in it with some quotes of highs and lows.  For instance, Phoenix gained a 23% return from last year and New York gained only 1.9% from last year.  A number we would have been praising 3-4 years ago.

The annual returns of the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices for February 2013, posted respective annual increases of 8.6% and 9.3%, and monthly increases of 0.4% and 0.3%.

“Despite some recent mixed economic reports for March, housing continues to be one of the brighter spots in the economy,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The 2013 first quarter GDP report shows that residential investment accelerated from the 2012 fourth quarter and made a positive contribution to growth.”

Case-Shiller Chart from March 2012

Case-Shiller Chart from March 2012

The unique perspective on what our market looks like over last year shows us that we may be in for a completely different cycle on housing prices.  (See “Spaghetti” Graphic to the Right)  Instead of a slow and steady incline higher, we might have some mountains and valleys during short periods in the future. Portland is doing its usual performance on prices staying right in the middle and out of the limelight.  It posted increases of 9.4% for the year and 0.7% over January 2013.  Portland’s index is now close to prices in September 2010 and August 2005.  This is the kind of bouncing I am suggesting where we just don’t look back to one time when there was a high or low, but two or three possibly.  It is hard to remember 2010 as a time equivalent to now for real estate simply because the pending sales have increased about 65% from 1584 pending sales and 38% from 1399 closed sales in September 2010.


Here’s to the new noodling and trying to figure it out!


Review the Full Report Here    The April 30, 2013 CS Report


–Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Anaylst




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