Case-Shiller Home Prices October 29, 2013 Report

29 10 2013

No Drama Here

The news isn’t price increases or a slight tick of a slowdown, it is that we are almost making up news to post as the improvement of the market slowly gets healthy.

Last week, David Blitzer posted on his blog, “Existing home sales were down in September and mortgage rates are rising. Data hints that the housing recovery is slowing or could be ending… After solid year-over-year gains of 12% or more in prices with home prices rising in all 20 cities, we could see far smaller price gains and even a decline in some cities.”

That was to get us thinking the sky “might” be falling.  Come on, did you really look for the positive in that statement.

Today, David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices said, “The 10-City and 20-City Composites posted a 12.8% annual growth rate. Both Composites showed their highest annual increases since February 2006…Despite showing 26 consecutive annual gains, Detroit remains the only city below its January 2000 index level.”

The healthy growth of about 1% a month is pretty amazing if you were “alive” 5 years ago and reading the news about the real estate market then.

Afraid of a “bubble?”

“Denver and Dallas again set new highs. All the other cities remain below their peaks. Boston and Charlotte are the two MSAs closest to their peaks with only 8-9% left to go. Las Vegas is still down 47.1% from its peak level.” Said Blitzer

The bubble, with 13 cities in double-digit increases, of which, 4 of them are over 20% is unlikely according to the October 25 Corelogic report.  Corelogic Reported on October 25th Year over Year prices nationally were only 12.4%.  Most of the indices are still well away from an actual return to their June/July2006 levels.

Oregon excluding distressed properties posted a 12.2% increase in the Corelogic Report.  It also stated that we are still -15% away from returning to the peak along with many other cities.

For this Case-Shiller Report, Portland appreciated 13% over last year and 1.2% from the previous month.  We are currently near September/October 2013 levels up from last month of August 2005 levels.  Portland’s true peak was really July 2007 for the Case-Shiller Index and we are presently about 17.2% off of our peak levels still.

Plus, a bubble really is indicated by a “belief” that housing will continue to appreciate infinitely; and, we are still too fresh off the last burst balloon to believe that concept.

water balloon

View the Full Report Here:  The October 29 CS Report

 

Dustin Miller
Broker/Analyst

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October 2013 RMLS Portland Market Action

11 10 2013

So, let’s start with commonalities today—Seasonal Changes.  Every year (except last year) in the past 6 years, new listings have gone down between September and October Market Action Reports.  Back away from the sharp objects…

No. No.The wording in the Market Action from RMLS is telling you this is the strongest September for new listings since 2010.  What they don’t understand is that lots of new listings rarely translate to being strong or weak.  If we had really low inventory then a flood of new listings might be considered “strong” or good news.  Many times this is simply a realtor cancelling a listing and bringing it back on as a different number for the same listing.

So, the rest of the report shows a little of the up and down we have been experiencing politically and financially in our country.  We are a fickle group as a whole, so the news might be swaying the market results more than anything from one year to the next.  (See the table below.)  Drops and gains year-to-year between September and October Reports are common in the past 6 years.

Month to Month Comparison for October 2013

The really good news is that prices are leveling off.  This shows some normality and balance which creates a comfortable experience for both buyers and sellers.  Everyone has the opportunity to take their own time when buying or selling.  That is comfort food for real estate brokers and mortgage brokers alike!

 

Compared to Last Year

Inventory up to 3.7 months.

Closed sales up 13.9%.

Pending sales up 7.8%

New listings up 19.3%.

Average Sales Price up 12.8%

Median Sales Price 15.4%

 

Compared to Last Month

Closed sales down 17.7%

Pending sales down 15.1 %

New listings down 14.5%

Average Sales Price down 1.4%

Median Sales Price down 0.7%

 

 

 

View The Full Report Here:  Portland Market Action October 2013

 

And, breathe deeply…it is a beautiful day!

A deep breath

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst