Case-Shiller Home Prices October 29, 2013 Report

29 10 2013

No Drama Here

The news isn’t price increases or a slight tick of a slowdown, it is that we are almost making up news to post as the improvement of the market slowly gets healthy.

Last week, David Blitzer posted on his blog, “Existing home sales were down in September and mortgage rates are rising. Data hints that the housing recovery is slowing or could be ending… After solid year-over-year gains of 12% or more in prices with home prices rising in all 20 cities, we could see far smaller price gains and even a decline in some cities.”

That was to get us thinking the sky “might” be falling.  Come on, did you really look for the positive in that statement.

Today, David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices said, “The 10-City and 20-City Composites posted a 12.8% annual growth rate. Both Composites showed their highest annual increases since February 2006…Despite showing 26 consecutive annual gains, Detroit remains the only city below its January 2000 index level.”

The healthy growth of about 1% a month is pretty amazing if you were “alive” 5 years ago and reading the news about the real estate market then.

Afraid of a “bubble?”

“Denver and Dallas again set new highs. All the other cities remain below their peaks. Boston and Charlotte are the two MSAs closest to their peaks with only 8-9% left to go. Las Vegas is still down 47.1% from its peak level.” Said Blitzer

The bubble, with 13 cities in double-digit increases, of which, 4 of them are over 20% is unlikely according to the October 25 Corelogic report.  Corelogic Reported on October 25th Year over Year prices nationally were only 12.4%.  Most of the indices are still well away from an actual return to their June/July2006 levels.

Oregon excluding distressed properties posted a 12.2% increase in the Corelogic Report.  It also stated that we are still -15% away from returning to the peak along with many other cities.

For this Case-Shiller Report, Portland appreciated 13% over last year and 1.2% from the previous month.  We are currently near September/October 2013 levels up from last month of August 2005 levels.  Portland’s true peak was really July 2007 for the Case-Shiller Index and we are presently about 17.2% off of our peak levels still.

Plus, a bubble really is indicated by a “belief” that housing will continue to appreciate infinitely; and, we are still too fresh off the last burst balloon to believe that concept.

water balloon

View the Full Report Here:  The October 29 CS Report


Dustin Miller




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