Case-Shiller Home Prices November 26, 2013 Report

26 11 2013

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Still talk of a bubble with the over 20% appreciation in some Western States…

“The strong price gains in the West are sparking questions and concerns about the possibility of another bubble,” says David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee.  “However the talk is focused on fear of a bubble, not a rush to join the party and buy. Moreover, other data suggest a market beginning to shift to slower growth rather than one about to accelerate. Existing home sales weakened in the most recent report, home construction remains far below the boom levels of six or seven years ago and interest rates are expected to be higher a year from now.”

dart

The national index is up 11.2% year over year, the 10-city and 20-city composites are up 13.3%.  Only four of the cities are up over 1% from month to month while the others are all under 1% with the exception of Charlotte which posted -.02% for the month to month change.  Portland fared a 0.7% appreciation for the month to month reporting.

Portland’s level for September 2013 (this report) is 160.18.  This is comparable to October 2005 and November 2008 levels in the past.

Blitzer’s comments in this report are dead on as we are all experiencing an appreciating market but buyers are not in a frenzy mode as they were in 2005 and 2006.  Though multiple offers still exist in many areas of Portland, most well-priced homes simply are selling quickly with a single reasonable offer.  Buyers are taking their time to educate themselves on the market right now and pulling the trigger when they feel most comfortable and ready.  The true pressure of making up their minds quickly in 2013 has lifted compared to the hot market of the recent past.

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View the full Report Here The November 26 CS Report

Dustin Miller
Broker/Analyst

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November 2013 Portland Market Action

14 11 2013

Breaking it Up and Down

Hey, it has been a good month for sales in Portland.  The pending sales from last month brought up the numbers of closed sales for this month.  However, everything seemed to be down month-to-month from September to October reports. What is that all aboout?

So how about getting the positive, iffy and negative from this report for the month (last year, of course, is all up and not very indicative of anything yet)…

plus

Positive: 

Inventory is down to 3.4 months heading into the late Fall and Winter.  Great news for those houses currently on the market— “Someone will have to buy you because you are practically the only choice.”

iffy

Iffy:

Pending sales are down.  This means closed sales will be most likely down next month which could be typically attributed to a “seasonal” change.  The new listings being down is also a hard read—it could be to up sales, but usually listings continue to pour in at a decent pace.  Market time crept up this past month by 4 days so that isn’t it.  More will be revealed next month as we ease into late Fall and early Winter.

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Negative:

Sales prices have been ticking down about 1% per month for the past 2 months.  With inventory low, this is unusual but not serious.  It may simply mean, the sellers out there are willing to sell a little lower to make a change quicker.  The effect is seasonal monthly, but on an annual basis it will begin to level off the national sales numbers we will be seeing in the next few months.  Right now we are at 10.4% and 11% for the average and median sales price change from last year.  That is pretty healthy for our area and any market we have seen in the past decade.

 

Compared to Last Year

Inventory down to 3.4 months.

Closed sales up 4.1%.

Pending sales down 4.2%

New listings up 5%.

Average Sales Price up 10.4%

Median Sales Price up 11%

 

Compared to Last Month

Closed sales up 1.4%

Pending sales down 2.4 %

New listings down 13.3%

Average Sales Price down 1%

Median Sales Price down 1.8%

 

View The Full Report Here:  RMLS November 2013 Market Action

 

Dustin Miller

Broker / Market Analyst





CoreLogic Home Price Index November 5, 2013 Report

5 11 2013

YawnAre we yawning yet?  Corelogic, Portland RMLS and the Case-Shiller Report are all telling us we are up about 12%.  We are trying to find a nugget each time with new news to let you know that the real estate market is trending upward.

How about a quick report on Corelogic first and then I will give you the rundown on each of these reports to make better sense of them.

The Corelogic national index including distressed homes has been going up slowly every month since October 2012 and the annual rate has been going up since March 2012.

Oregon posted a 13.55% appreciation including distressed sales and 12.32% appreciation excluding distressed sales between Sept.  2012 – Sept. 2013.

Nationally Including Distressed Sales

Up 12% in Price from previous year—Sept. 2012

Up 0.2% in price from previous month—Aug. 2012

Nationally Excluding Distressed Sales

Up 10.8% in Price from previous year—Sept. 2012

Up 0.3% in price from previous month—Aug. 2012

National Prediction Including Distressed sales for Oct. 2013

Up 10.5% in Price from previous year—October 2013

Up 0.3% in price from previous month—October 2013

National Prediction Excluding Distressed sales for October

Up 11.2% in Price from previous year—October 2012

Up 0.1% in Price from previous month—Oct. 2013

The CoreLogic Home Price Index tracks 30 years of repeat sales transactions for the same homes over time for both distressed and non-distressed properties.  The data reflects the results of the month prior and a rolling three month data index.   This is different than the National Association of Realtors Report who is one month behind but tracks all home sales as well as pending statistics for a three-month rolling index as well.  And, the Case-Schiller Report reports data 2 months back and a rolling three-month data index of all homes sales.  CoreLogic believes this unique system of tracking is slightly more accurate as to home price appreciation and depreciation due to the tracking of the very same homes.  The Portland RMLS report tracks the previous month of sales (one month back) compared with the previous month as well as the previous year.  Corelogic is the only published report which posts predictions for the next month and the following year.

slow and steady

The full report:corelogic_hpi_september_2013

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Analyst

Realty Trust Group