Case-Shiller Home Prices February 25, 2014 Report

25 02 2014

‘Tis the season…

When we start going down month-to-month, we as a nation in the marketplace start talking about how the year ended versus the previous year.

Winter Weather 'Tis the season

 “In December, the 10-City Composite remained relatively unchanged while the 20-City Composite showed its second consecutive monthly decline of 0.1%. Year-over-year, the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted gains of 13.6% and 13.4%, approximately 30 basis points lower than their November rates,” the report stated.

“The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index ended its best year since 2005,” said David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices… Recent economic reports suggest a bleaker picture for housing. Existing home sales fell 5.1% in January from December to the slowest pace in over a year. Permits for new residential construction and housing starts were both down and below expectations. Some of the weakness reflects the cold weather in much of the country. However, higher home prices and mortgage rates are taking a toll on affordability…but bank lending standards remain strict.”

For the composites nationally, the report states that prices are back to Spring 2004 levels but Portland is fairing much better in the report where prices are closer to levels in the fall of 2005.

Another high point in the report for Portland, Oregon is the seasonally adjusted averages where they are negative for the last two reports for month-to-month numbers (-0.1 and -0.3), but when seasonally adjusted they post positive numbers of 0.7% for both reports.

home snowAll in all Portland is still much better off going back to its old self of gradually climbing up in prices and not rapidly fluctuating up and down.  I expect the “season” to sway prices up once again as we move toward spring 2014.

At least our season is shut down like the Great Lakes states too.  They pretty much have to wait for late spring to buy and sell houses!

For sale

The Full Report Here: The February 25 CS Report

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst





PORTLAND MARKET ACTION FEBRUARY 14, 2014

17 02 2014

Inventory is still going down and now folks are getting a little restless. Since I covered inventory last month, I thought I would dig a little deeper on supply and demand. The question I asked is “What would happen if we took all the listings which took over 200 days on the market to sell?” After all, two houses sold over 1000 days on the market and a bunch under that. Just as a $1M listing can skew average sales price, these sluggish listings can skew the “actual” days on the market.

Tickle Me Elmo Demand 1996

What I found out is what I thought, the numbers would increase. By eliminating the 121 pending sales and 69 closed sales which took 200 days or longer to sell, these are the results for the last 30 days as of February 16 (which adds 2 weeks to the results):

Pending sales
Total = 1853
Average Sales Price = $319,889
Days on the Market = 43

Closed Sales
Total = 1112
Average Sales Price = $327,508                                 Days on the Market = 53

Compare these numbers to the February RMLS Market Action

Average Sales Price = $10,308 or 3.25% more
Days on the Market = 44.33% more

That is what I thought might be the case after talking with my fellow brokers throughout the area. The average market time for a property really feels like 53 more than it does 96 and even that is a stretch for our emotions. It feels like Alec Baldwin in breathing down our necks…

glengarry

The bottom line for all you boomers out there looking to downsize, get your house on the market now. The spring is an unknown which could work against you. You have buyers now who want in your doors.  More inventory hitting the market at the same time, drives prices down.  The waiting place for them is really rough.

the_waiting_place

Compared to Last Year
Inventory down to 4.1 months.
Closed sales up 3.9%.
Pending sales up 6.3%
New listings up 5.9%.
Average Sales Price up 10.3%
Median Sales Price up 6.9%

Compared to Last Month
Closed sales down 21.7%
Pending sales up 36.6%
New listings up 93.8%
Average Sales Price up 2.8%
Median Sales Price down 0.9%

View The Full Report Here: Portland Market Action February 2014

Dustin Miller

Broker / Market Analyst