Case-Shiller Home Prices February 24, 2015 Report

6 03 2015
How do you see it?

              How do you see it?

Well Mr. Blitzer and I definitely seem to have different perspectives on these national reports of recent days.  He was so positive in 2013, I miss it.  Perhaps the extreme 2014-2015 winter is shaping his sunny opinions for the future.

“The housing recovery is faltering. While prices and sales of existing homes are close to normal, construction and new home sales remain weak. Before the current business cycle, any time housing starts were at their current level of about one million at annual rates, the economy was in a recession” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The softness in housing is despite favorable conditions elsewhere in the economy: strong job growth, a declining unemployment rate, continued low interest rates and positive consumer confidence.”

The collective indices are all under 5% for the one year change but most individual cities are up above that number for the year.  Many East Coast and Mid-West Cities are under 3%.  They put us back to autumn 2004 levels at this point.

half glass

New construction starts are only one measuring stick for “housing recovery” that Blitzer is referring to in this report.  So many different factors go into shaping that number today versus 8 years ago before the recession started.  For the Portland Metro Area, for instance, all of the governments in the area thought raising construction fees astronomically would be a good solution to their budget shortfalls.  These new charges are called “system development charges” and along with a strict Urban Growth Boundary, have kept Portland pretty low for new construction starts.  The state posted 0.03 growth numbers in Q4 of 2014 for new construction related indicators, however our sales prices and volumes are considered to be positive regionally.

Portland is staying the course, gradually climbing up in prices and not rapidly fluctuating up and down.  This spring prices may spike in March and April as the weather improves along with income.  We are between March and April 2006 as far as our Case-Shiller Indicator number of 170.70 in this report.

Stay tuned for the next report featuring the MarketPulse and Home Price Index Reports from CoreLogic, they both paint a totally different perspective on housing starts for 2015.

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The Full Report Here: case shiller Feb 2015

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst

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