February 28, 2017 Case-Shiller Report

28 02 2017

why-slow-steady-wins-race-1

Number 2 again… Well, as I said in last month’s report, it is the best place to be for any competitor going into the big game. Most eyes are on number one—who is Seattle in this case.

The best news coming out of this report, which is a little interesting for David Blitzer’s analysis, is the insight to volatility over the course of the last 25 years, specifically the recent boom-to-bust-to-boom.  Blitzer looked at both the Seattle and Portland markets and found the higher end properties (over $532,716) were less volatile than the lower end (under $335,111) over the years.

…“Another factor supporting rising home prices is mortgage rates. A 30-year fixed rate mortgage today is 4.2% compared to the 6.4% average since 1990. Another indicator that home price levels are normal can be seen in the charts of Seattle and Portland OR. In the boom-bust of 2005-2009, prices of low, medium, and high-tier homes moved together, while in other periods, including now, the tiers experienced different patterns,” said David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

tortoise-hare

 

All in all, we are moving upward slowly and steadily and that is how we have done it for the past 50 years.  Obviously we have had some bumps along the way, but, in general, it has been a slow climb upward.

 

In the coming month I will post an analysis on the home prices regarding the past 12 years and be comparing the highs and lows as well as the times of year they happened.  Stay tuned!

Understatement Of The Year!

“One factor behind rising home prices is low inventory. While sales of existing single family homes passed five million units at annual rates in January, the highest since 2007, the inventory of homes for sales remains quite low with a 3.6 month supply,” said Blitzer.

Portland is currently at 1.7 months of supply and yearning for more.  In fact, we have only had 2 or more months of inventory in only 5 occasions in the past 2 years.

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S&P Case-Shiller Numbers for December 2016

 

National

  • 8% up from last year
  • 2% up from last month

20 city—(Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, LasVegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco,  Seattle, Tampa, Washington.)

  • 9% up from last year
  • 3% up from last month

10 city—(Boston, Chicago, Denver, Vegas, LA, Florida, N.Y., San Diego, Miami, San Francisco)

  • 9% up from last year
  • 3% up from last month

 

Portland

10% up from last year

0.3% up from last month

 

Download the Case-Shiller Report here:case-shiller-february-28-2017

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Portland Metro Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group

 

 





January 31, 2017 Case-Shiller Report

1 02 2017

mt-hood-sunrise

First and foremost, the numbers from this report are from data in November 2016.  Secondly, Portland landed at #2 again for this month which is still very strong for the national average.

 

“With the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rising at about 5.5% annual rate over the last two-and-a-half years and having reached a new all-time high recently, one can argue that housing has recovered from the boom-bust cycle that began a dozen years ago, says David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices…disposable income has risen at about a 2.5% annual rate for 30 months.”

january-trees-highlights

Oak Grove Fork Clackamas River

What does this really mean?  Well, the encouraging part is that we are going up at a slow and steady pace, even in the late fall months, which is seasonally unexpected.  This is due mostly to our very low inventory for the area (1.2 months).  Supply is low and demand is still high for Portland, Oregon.  As I read in the CoreLogic MarketPulse this month, there is a large outward migration still flowing from California counties.  In Los Angeles and Orange counties, the outward migration is going to outlying counties due to affordability.  The median sales price for a home in Orange County is $639,000 and $544,000 for Los Angeles County.

 

“…about 24 out of the 100 households were buying outside of the county (Los Angeles),” said Archana Pradhan, Economist for CoreLogic…About one-third of the net outflow, representing 6 percent of current residents who want to buy, are buying out of state.”

Microsoft Word - hood trillium lake photo.docx

Holly Fischer Photography

 

 

 

Portland’s median home price was $349,900 in December 2016.  This fact is perhaps not bringing in refugees from other states at an alarming rate, but it surely looks good for those seeking to relocate and get more home for the price.  That amount of demand, no matter how small or large, is putting pressure on those in-state who are also competing for the rare low number of home in inventory for the Portland Metropolitan area—1.2 months!

 

S&P Case Shiller Numbers

National

  • 6% up from last year
  • 2% up from last month

20 city—(Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, LasVegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco,  Seattle, Tampa, Washington.)

  • 3% up from last year
  • 2% up from last month

10 city—(Boston, Chicago, Denver, Vegas, LA, Florida, N.Y., San Diego, Miami, San Francisco)

  • 5% up from last year
  • 2% up from last month

 

Portland

10.1% up from last year

0.2% up from last month

 

Case-Shiller Report case-shiller-january-31-2017

 

tracks-in-the-snow

My hike in the snow last spring

Dustin Miller

Broker/Portland Metro Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group