January 31, 2017 Case-Shiller Report

1 02 2017

mt-hood-sunrise

First and foremost, the numbers from this report are from data in November 2016.  Secondly, Portland landed at #2 again for this month which is still very strong for the national average.

 

“With the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rising at about 5.5% annual rate over the last two-and-a-half years and having reached a new all-time high recently, one can argue that housing has recovered from the boom-bust cycle that began a dozen years ago, says David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices…disposable income has risen at about a 2.5% annual rate for 30 months.”

january-trees-highlights

Oak Grove Fork Clackamas River

What does this really mean?  Well, the encouraging part is that we are going up at a slow and steady pace, even in the late fall months, which is seasonally unexpected.  This is due mostly to our very low inventory for the area (1.2 months).  Supply is low and demand is still high for Portland, Oregon.  As I read in the CoreLogic MarketPulse this month, there is a large outward migration still flowing from California counties.  In Los Angeles and Orange counties, the outward migration is going to outlying counties due to affordability.  The median sales price for a home in Orange County is $639,000 and $544,000 for Los Angeles County.

 

“…about 24 out of the 100 households were buying outside of the county (Los Angeles),” said Archana Pradhan, Economist for CoreLogic…About one-third of the net outflow, representing 6 percent of current residents who want to buy, are buying out of state.”

Microsoft Word - hood trillium lake photo.docx

Holly Fischer Photography

 

 

 

Portland’s median home price was $349,900 in December 2016.  This fact is perhaps not bringing in refugees from other states at an alarming rate, but it surely looks good for those seeking to relocate and get more home for the price.  That amount of demand, no matter how small or large, is putting pressure on those in-state who are also competing for the rare low number of home in inventory for the Portland Metropolitan area—1.2 months!

 

S&P Case Shiller Numbers

National

  • 6% up from last year
  • 2% up from last month

20 city—(Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, LasVegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco,  Seattle, Tampa, Washington.)

  • 3% up from last year
  • 2% up from last month

10 city—(Boston, Chicago, Denver, Vegas, LA, Florida, N.Y., San Diego, Miami, San Francisco)

  • 5% up from last year
  • 2% up from last month

 

Portland

10.1% up from last year

0.2% up from last month

 

Case-Shiller Report case-shiller-january-31-2017

 

tracks-in-the-snow

My hike in the snow last spring

Dustin Miller

Broker/Portland Metro Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group

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