February 28, 2017 Case-Shiller Report

28 02 2017

why-slow-steady-wins-race-1

Number 2 again… Well, as I said in last month’s report, it is the best place to be for any competitor going into the big game. Most eyes are on number one—who is Seattle in this case.

The best news coming out of this report, which is a little interesting for David Blitzer’s analysis, is the insight to volatility over the course of the last 25 years, specifically the recent boom-to-bust-to-boom.  Blitzer looked at both the Seattle and Portland markets and found the higher end properties (over $532,716) were less volatile than the lower end (under $335,111) over the years.

…“Another factor supporting rising home prices is mortgage rates. A 30-year fixed rate mortgage today is 4.2% compared to the 6.4% average since 1990. Another indicator that home price levels are normal can be seen in the charts of Seattle and Portland OR. In the boom-bust of 2005-2009, prices of low, medium, and high-tier homes moved together, while in other periods, including now, the tiers experienced different patterns,” said David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

tortoise-hare

 

All in all, we are moving upward slowly and steadily and that is how we have done it for the past 50 years.  Obviously we have had some bumps along the way, but, in general, it has been a slow climb upward.

 

In the coming month I will post an analysis on the home prices regarding the past 12 years and be comparing the highs and lows as well as the times of year they happened.  Stay tuned!

Understatement Of The Year!

“One factor behind rising home prices is low inventory. While sales of existing single family homes passed five million units at annual rates in January, the highest since 2007, the inventory of homes for sales remains quite low with a 3.6 month supply,” said Blitzer.

Portland is currently at 1.7 months of supply and yearning for more.  In fact, we have only had 2 or more months of inventory in only 5 occasions in the past 2 years.

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S&P Case-Shiller Numbers for December 2016

 

National

  • 8% up from last year
  • 2% up from last month

20 city—(Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, LasVegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco,  Seattle, Tampa, Washington.)

  • 9% up from last year
  • 3% up from last month

10 city—(Boston, Chicago, Denver, Vegas, LA, Florida, N.Y., San Diego, Miami, San Francisco)

  • 9% up from last year
  • 3% up from last month

 

Portland

10% up from last year

0.3% up from last month

 

Download the Case-Shiller Report here:case-shiller-february-28-2017

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Portland Metro Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group

 

 

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