Portland Metro Average Sales Price Up?

23 09 2010

“If so many houses are taking a hit on closing price, how come the Average Sales Price for Portland Homes is going up?”

 

Well, for starters, it is a big number thing.  Secondly, it is only very small increments of percentages we are talking about.

 In January we went down 3.7%, February down 3.3%, March we went up 2.6%, April up .06%, May down 2.3%, June up 5.2%, July 2.5% and August .08%.  That is a total of 1.14% year-to-date.  How it happens is simple numbers, if you take 30 sold $100,000 homes, the average price is $100,000 to start.  If 8 of them sold for a total of $18,000 more than $100,000 (one is up $1000, another $4000, etc.)—the average price increase is .6%.  Not even a full percentage.  If you take 10 gallons of milk priced at $3.00 each in your average grocery store, the average price is $3.00.  If, instead, two of those gallons were purchased at 7-11 for $3.25 a gallon, then the average sales price goes up 1.64%. 

Our market sold 156 homes above $1M last year and this year we are at 100 already with 28 pending.  This could be one big reason why the price is slightly higher.  Since $1M spread out over 13,185 closed sales is only $75.00 more for each house.  Add to it– 11 of those were over $2M and those numbers help make up for the deficiencies of the others.

THE GOOD NEWS is not that everyone’s house went up 1.14% so far this year (which is far from the truth); THE GOOD NEWS is that, as a whole– spread out over Portland’s 61,476 active, pending or sold homes to-date– the Portland Metro Area has not gone down in price for 2010 to date.  Well, at least, so far…. 

Onward!

Dustin Miller 

Advertisements




August 2010 Portland Metro Market Action

17 09 2010

 So, last year was better than this year in August by 25%!  Yikes!  Where is the discrepancy?  One thing… it’s emotional.  Last year, we were tired of the recession talk and willing to step out and move forward.  Folks who hadn’t lost their jobs figured they weren’t going to lose them in the future.  This year, the glass is 1/3 full.  Closed sales down 25% and pending sales down 21.7%, plus new listings being up 1.3% adds for a little more bootstrap pulling into the Fall. As they say in the world of surfing wth boots on, you don’t have to out-surf the next shark…just the next surfer.

 The month-to-month report is more optimistic as the closed sales were down from July to August by 2.2% but pending sales were up 3.6%.  And, the prices are up a click to near 1% over last year and the month of July.  (I am still working on the best metaphor for an explanation of the prices up vs. sky is falling piece). 

 To wrap this up, in my estimation, the market is going to continue emotionally through the Spring of 2011 unless we see an improvement in the jobs sector.  We have stepped back to Fall 2008 when we were concerned with what was going to happen next as country—skip the election piece.  Oddly enough, our inventory numbers are currently mirroring the market of 2008 for the Portland Metro Area.

 The State of Oregon Economists have a blog which I keep up on to get new info with their spin which is always fun.  I frequently serve balls into their court to challenge their reports.  However, it does give decent update on what is going on from their perspective. 

http://oregoneconomicanalysis.wordpress.com/.

More soon,

Dustin Miller





Latest Complete Portland Metro Real Estate Report

27 08 2010

 Well, here it is sandwiched between the National Association of Realtors report where we are down 27.2% in overall sales and waiting patiently for the Case-Schiller Report which comes out Tuesday the 31st.  I did move the date forward to make up for it by going 30 days back from the 24th instead of the 13th.

First and foremost, I will be coming out with a new version, hopefully next month which compares the current report with the rolling 3-month average.  I also will create a little summary (hopefully with pictures) for the non-numbers types too.  Lastly, I will be addressing the question  

“How does the average sales price increase 2.5% in Portland when sales are down?”   

So, the summary in three sentences or less of this report mirrors the national report that sales are down—only by 10% here in the Portland Metro Area though compared to the report of June 13th-July 13th.  Next, some price ranges such as $500,000-$600,000 saw an increase of 20% overall!  Lastly, this report shows little consistency in what buyers are thinking and how they are purchasing in this marketplace right now— it is an emotional thing at best.

 Complete Portland Metro Report August 2010





April 27th Case-Schiller Report

28 04 2010
  • The Case Schiller S&P Indices Report came out yesterday with some more mixed reviews.  Unless you live in San Diego, which had a glowing report of being the only city in the indices to continue to improve month over month for the past 3 months for home prices.  All in all, the nation has posted a report of finally putting a halt to falling home prices; well, except for Portland and Dallas.  Although not terribly significant at 1.4% for the 10-city composite and 0.6% for the 20 city composite, this is a small sign of stabilization for the country as a whole.  On a cautionary note, David Blitzer (Chairman of the Index Committee), said, “These data point to a risk that home prices could decline further before experiencing any sustained gains…the pace of decline is less severe than a year ago. It is too early to say that the housing market is recovering.” 

 

  • Even though the composites as a whole gained in home prices, “six cities hit new lows– Charlotte, Las Vegas, New York, Portland, Seattle and Tampa,” said Blitzer

 

  • He also said, “…we should also pay heed to foreclosure activity, which have reached their highest level in at least the last five years. As these homes are put up for sales, we may see some further dampening in home prices.”

 

  • Average home prices across the United States are at similar levels to where they were in late summer/early autumn of 2003. From their peak in June/July of 2006 through the trough in April 2009, the 10-City Composite is down 33.5% and the 20-City Composite is down 32.6%.

                         Feb. 2010           Feb/Jan Ch.       

Portland              143.69                  -2.4%                  

                         Jan10/Dec09 change                   1 yr Change

                         -1.8%                                                    -4.8%

(*The 143.69 indicates Portland has had 43.69% appreciation since the year 2000.)

 http://www.standardandpoors.com/spf/docs/case-shiller/CSHomePrice_Release.pdf

— Dustin Miller

Realty Trust Group

503-850-3621 Direct

dustinm@realtytrust.com





Portland Oregon New Construction Stats

16 02 2009

Real Estate Sales for Bank-Owned New Construction in the past two months.

foreclosures-new-construction-february-2009

 

Real Estate Sales for Non-Bank-Owned New Construction @ Months Back from February 11.

non-bank-owned-new-construction-february-2009