February 28, 2017 Case-Shiller Report

28 02 2017

why-slow-steady-wins-race-1

Number 2 again… Well, as I said in last month’s report, it is the best place to be for any competitor going into the big game. Most eyes are on number one—who is Seattle in this case.

The best news coming out of this report, which is a little interesting for David Blitzer’s analysis, is the insight to volatility over the course of the last 25 years, specifically the recent boom-to-bust-to-boom.  Blitzer looked at both the Seattle and Portland markets and found the higher end properties (over $532,716) were less volatile than the lower end (under $335,111) over the years.

…“Another factor supporting rising home prices is mortgage rates. A 30-year fixed rate mortgage today is 4.2% compared to the 6.4% average since 1990. Another indicator that home price levels are normal can be seen in the charts of Seattle and Portland OR. In the boom-bust of 2005-2009, prices of low, medium, and high-tier homes moved together, while in other periods, including now, the tiers experienced different patterns,” said David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

tortoise-hare

 

All in all, we are moving upward slowly and steadily and that is how we have done it for the past 50 years.  Obviously we have had some bumps along the way, but, in general, it has been a slow climb upward.

 

In the coming month I will post an analysis on the home prices regarding the past 12 years and be comparing the highs and lows as well as the times of year they happened.  Stay tuned!

Understatement Of The Year!

“One factor behind rising home prices is low inventory. While sales of existing single family homes passed five million units at annual rates in January, the highest since 2007, the inventory of homes for sales remains quite low with a 3.6 month supply,” said Blitzer.

Portland is currently at 1.7 months of supply and yearning for more.  In fact, we have only had 2 or more months of inventory in only 5 occasions in the past 2 years.

ed-aq002_blinde_g_20121031182754

S&P Case-Shiller Numbers for December 2016

 

National

  • 8% up from last year
  • 2% up from last month

20 city—(Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, LasVegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco,  Seattle, Tampa, Washington.)

  • 9% up from last year
  • 3% up from last month

10 city—(Boston, Chicago, Denver, Vegas, LA, Florida, N.Y., San Diego, Miami, San Francisco)

  • 9% up from last year
  • 3% up from last month

 

Portland

10% up from last year

0.3% up from last month

 

Download the Case-Shiller Report here:case-shiller-february-28-2017

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Portland Metro Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group

 

 





January 31, 2017 Case-Shiller Report

1 02 2017

mt-hood-sunrise

First and foremost, the numbers from this report are from data in November 2016.  Secondly, Portland landed at #2 again for this month which is still very strong for the national average.

 

“With the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rising at about 5.5% annual rate over the last two-and-a-half years and having reached a new all-time high recently, one can argue that housing has recovered from the boom-bust cycle that began a dozen years ago, says David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices…disposable income has risen at about a 2.5% annual rate for 30 months.”

january-trees-highlights

Oak Grove Fork Clackamas River

What does this really mean?  Well, the encouraging part is that we are going up at a slow and steady pace, even in the late fall months, which is seasonally unexpected.  This is due mostly to our very low inventory for the area (1.2 months).  Supply is low and demand is still high for Portland, Oregon.  As I read in the CoreLogic MarketPulse this month, there is a large outward migration still flowing from California counties.  In Los Angeles and Orange counties, the outward migration is going to outlying counties due to affordability.  The median sales price for a home in Orange County is $639,000 and $544,000 for Los Angeles County.

 

“…about 24 out of the 100 households were buying outside of the county (Los Angeles),” said Archana Pradhan, Economist for CoreLogic…About one-third of the net outflow, representing 6 percent of current residents who want to buy, are buying out of state.”

Microsoft Word - hood trillium lake photo.docx

Holly Fischer Photography

 

 

 

Portland’s median home price was $349,900 in December 2016.  This fact is perhaps not bringing in refugees from other states at an alarming rate, but it surely looks good for those seeking to relocate and get more home for the price.  That amount of demand, no matter how small or large, is putting pressure on those in-state who are also competing for the rare low number of home in inventory for the Portland Metropolitan area—1.2 months!

 

S&P Case Shiller Numbers

National

  • 6% up from last year
  • 2% up from last month

20 city—(Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, LasVegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco,  Seattle, Tampa, Washington.)

  • 3% up from last year
  • 2% up from last month

10 city—(Boston, Chicago, Denver, Vegas, LA, Florida, N.Y., San Diego, Miami, San Francisco)

  • 5% up from last year
  • 2% up from last month

 

Portland

10.1% up from last year

0.2% up from last month

 

Case-Shiller Report case-shiller-january-31-2017

 

tracks-in-the-snow

My hike in the snow last spring

Dustin Miller

Broker/Portland Metro Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group





September 27, 2016 Case Shiller Report

27 09 2016

fall-is-coming

Once again, Portland leads the nation in year-over-year appreciation for the sixth month in a row.  Not a surprise based on the July numbers for us since summer is generally always the hottest price appreciation month each year.  That being said, Portland numbers are slowing down based on the RMLS Market Action for August numbers.  The Market Action had Portland go down in August by 1.7%.  That is most likely a prediction that the numbers will go down as well for the Case Shiller Index next month.

However, we most likely will make the top three next month for the Case Shiller Index year-over-year appreciation even if the number goes down.  Relax and let fall settle in.  Cozy up to a warm blanket and hot cup of coffee as the market cools a bit seasonally as it always does.  It does not mean that the home you just purchased a month or so ago has specifically lost value.  Even if it does, we will bounce back as always in the Spring.  Don’t let fear settle in as long term appreciation in real estate is always your best investment.

coffee

Finally, the chart Case Shiller put on the report this month for peak-to-trough and rebound percentages is the most interesting part of this report for Portland.  I added Portland into the chart below for a little perspective.

S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Indices Peak to Trough Analysis

2006 Peak 2012 Trough   Current  
Index Level Date Level Date From Peak % Level From Trough % From Peak %
National 184.62 Jul-06 134.01 Feb-12 27.4% 183.57 37.0% -0.6%
20-City 206.52 Jul-06 134.07 Mar-12 35.1% 190.91 42.4% -7.6%
10-City 229.29 Jun-06 146.45 Mar-12 35.3% 204.92 39.9% -9.4%
Portland 186.51 Jul-07 129.01 Mar-12 30.8% 207.46 60.8% 11.2%

Portland was above the national level at its peak a year after the rest of the nation in July 2007 at 186.51.  Then we crashed harder than all the averages in March of 2012 with a low of 129.01.  However, we only crashed 30.8% which was 3.4% above the National Average and below the other two indices.  Then “pow” we rebounded up 60.8% above that low from March 2012 and currently stand 11.2% above our all-time high from July 2007.  So even if we lose a few points, Portland will still remain strong for real estate in the future.  Yes, we will slow down as a typical real estate cycle, but the bubble is highly unlikely due to all the rules and regulations executed in the recession years.

National

  • 1% up from last year
  • 7% up from last month

20 city—(Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, LasVegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco,  Seattle, Tampa, Washington.)

  • 0% up from last year
  • 6% up from last month

10 city—(Boston, Chicago, Denver, Vegas, LA, Florida, N.Y., San Diego, Miami, San Francisco)

  • 2% up from last year
  • 5% up from last month

 

Portland–#26 in population countrywide but included nonetheless. Take note.

  •             12.4% up from last year
  •             1.2% up from last year

linus-peanuts-tease-160211

 

The Full Report Here:case-shiller-september-27-2016

Dustin Miller

Broker/Portland Metro Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group

 

 





Portland Tops Case Shiller May 2016 Numbers Again

26 07 2016

partydreamcolorparty

Once again Portland tops the S&P Case-Shiller Index for May 2016 at 12.5% year-over year appreciation.  Just like last month, where Seattle and Denver followed behind at a 10.7% and 9.5 rate.

With that everyone is asking about the bubble popping.  David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said “The two hottest areas during the housing boom were Florida and the Southwest. Miami and Tampa have recovered in the last few months while Las Vegas and Phoenix remain weak. When home prices began to recover, New York and Washington saw steady price growth; now both are among the weakest areas in the country.”

What that says to me, is that the slow down is what to expect.  Portland may slow down in number and in price, but it will be healthy for us.  Like sleeping in, once Daylight Savings Time is over; or, having a bowl of soup and reading a book.

Caution

Notice in the headlines for the cities which have slowed down, the “Chicken Little” lingo is not there.  New York, Washington and Cleveland all had under 3% appreciation for May 2016 numbers.

For the Spring!  Are you kidding me!  Nothing popped though.  The bottom didn’t fall out.  Mass hysteria is not flooding the streets.

At some point Portland will not be on top and can expect the same.  That’s it.  The number may go back to our normal 4-5% appreciation which we did for about 50 years on average in the past. And, that is a GOOD thing.  Go on vacation.  It will be here when you get back.

relax-hammock

The Full Report Here:case shiller may 2016

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Anaylst

 

 





Case-Shiller Home Prices January 26, 2016 Report

26 01 2016

Dorthy

Wow…

 

Here are the numbers of today’s Case Shiller Report.  Portland is at an all-time high for November 2015.  This is unheard of for a late Fall number ever in our recorded history.  It makes us all wonder what will come up in next month’s report on whether it is lower or higher.  We all expect the number to go down in the Winter, but based on this, it will be somewhat unclear to predict.

Lady

More soon!

Portland  Index

Jul-2007 186.51
Aug-2015 186.51
Nov-2015 189.47

 

National  Index

Jul-2006 184.62
Nov-2007 175.19
Nov-2015 175.71

 

10 City  Index

Jun-2006 226.29
Nov-2015 197.54

 

20 City Index

Jul-2006 206.52
Dec-2007 184.97
Jan-2008 180.68
Nov-2015 182.86

 

Top

 

The Full Report Here: 

Case Shiller January 26, 2015

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst

 





Case-Shiller Home Prices November 2014

25 11 2014

Light At The End of the Tunnel...

The light at the end of the tunnel is not a train as the Case-Shiller Home Price Press Release seems to state.  “The overall trend in home price increases continues to slow down…, said David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

What he didn’t say after that headline with the same emphasis, is that only the National Index posted a negative change for September -0.1%.  Nine cities in the 20-city composite posted negative numbers for the month-to-month change and 11 posted flat or positive numbers–the worst was -0.4% for D.C. and the best was 0.6% for Miami and Charlotte.light at end of tunnel is the sun

Portland, Oregon was Number 5 on the list for the 1-Year Change of 6.7% below Dallas 7.4% and above Denver 6.2% and Seattle 6.0%.  That is pretty impressive news Portland!

The scary “deceleration” word they used up-front that had us holding a match to our wallets, eventually became “stable to slightly better” for housing in 2015 at the end of the report.

If this was school, our mid-term grade sounds more like a C+ or B- with lots of room to improve next semester. A little more to the left…Puncheon's missed goal

Portland, Oregon as of November 25, 2014

All Active Homes, Pending and Sold Homes 30 days back from Today.

Inventory:                     2.3 Months

Average Sale Price:     $339,217 (up $3617 up 1% from last month)

Median Sale Price:       $293,500 (up $4500 up 1.5% from last month)

Days on The Market:   59 Days (down 6 days from last month)

# Active                         4,885 total overall

# Pending                      2,841 (361 more than Oct.)

# Sold                             2,094 (393 less than Oct.)

Big news for Portland that ALL realtors are talking about right now–  Inventory!  It is getting worse at 2.3 Months of Inventory if not another house came on the market we would run out in 2.3 months!  Just like Fall ’04 and ’05.

Supply and demand…supply goes down and demand goes up…prices go up.  It is simple business.  The light on the other side of the tunnel is the sun and the grass is greener there.

pastures

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst





Case-Shiller Home Prices February 25, 2014 Report

25 02 2014

‘Tis the season…

When we start going down month-to-month, we as a nation in the marketplace start talking about how the year ended versus the previous year.

Winter Weather 'Tis the season

 “In December, the 10-City Composite remained relatively unchanged while the 20-City Composite showed its second consecutive monthly decline of 0.1%. Year-over-year, the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted gains of 13.6% and 13.4%, approximately 30 basis points lower than their November rates,” the report stated.

“The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index ended its best year since 2005,” said David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices… Recent economic reports suggest a bleaker picture for housing. Existing home sales fell 5.1% in January from December to the slowest pace in over a year. Permits for new residential construction and housing starts were both down and below expectations. Some of the weakness reflects the cold weather in much of the country. However, higher home prices and mortgage rates are taking a toll on affordability…but bank lending standards remain strict.”

For the composites nationally, the report states that prices are back to Spring 2004 levels but Portland is fairing much better in the report where prices are closer to levels in the fall of 2005.

Another high point in the report for Portland, Oregon is the seasonally adjusted averages where they are negative for the last two reports for month-to-month numbers (-0.1 and -0.3), but when seasonally adjusted they post positive numbers of 0.7% for both reports.

home snowAll in all Portland is still much better off going back to its old self of gradually climbing up in prices and not rapidly fluctuating up and down.  I expect the “season” to sway prices up once again as we move toward spring 2014.

At least our season is shut down like the Great Lakes states too.  They pretty much have to wait for late spring to buy and sell houses!

For sale

The Full Report Here: The February 25 CS Report

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst