Case-Shiller Home Prices January 28, 2013 Report

28 01 2014
The Deschutes River Canyon

The Deschutes River Canyon

We keep going up and up, maybe just a little bit, but we keep going up.

“Home prices continue to rise despite last May’s jump in mortgage interest rates. Mortgage applications for purchase were up in recent weeks confirming home builders’ optimism shown by the NAHB survey. ..While housing will make further contributions to the economy in 2014, the pace of price gains is likely to slow during the year,” said David Blitzer, Chairman of the S&P Case-Shiller Indices.

This means they are trending in a positive direction headed into winter (this report covers November 2013), which typically is a slow time of the season.  What is appears to be trending toward is a steady up and down this winter by small percentages here and there.  It is nothing to freak out about;Freaking out and, not worth getting overly excited about as well.  It appears we are learning our lesson from the last time prices began to increase dramatically.  This is a typical plateau for the nation.  Perhaps, we may stay here throughout 2014.  It is hard to say with the factors of inflation, mortgage rates, jobs and the economy.

 

Portland is at May 2005 levels for this report.  We also hit this number in January 2010 when the market was declining and again between February and March 2013. For this report, Portland is down for the month of -0.3% but up for the year of 12.5%.  This is the middle of the pack for the nation between the low of 6% for New York and the high of 27.3% for Las Vegas.

 

Once again, stay calm.  This report is if anything very encouraging for near winter numbers.  The increases are not hurling us toward another bubble.

 

The Full Report Here: The January 28 CS Report

cat calm

 

 

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst

 (A cat photo to sooth the soul)

 

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Case-Shiller Home Prices December 2013

31 12 2013

Which Way Are We Going?“The key economic question facing housing is the Fed’s future course to scale back quantitative easing and how this will affect mortgage rates,” said David Blitzer, Chairman of the S&P Case-Shiller Indices. “Other housing data paint a mixed picture suggesting that we may be close to the peak gains in prices. However, other economic data point to somewhat faster growth in the new year. Most forecasts for home prices point to single digit growth in 2014.”

Huh?

I guess we get a freebie on this one.  If you want to see the glass half-full you can rest on the last two lines in the quote.  If you want to see it half-empty, you can take the second line for your day.  And, if you want to play it a little cautious, you can use it all and say, there is still too much in question with the “other” economic data to really make an educated guess as to where housing prices will go in 2014.

Nationally, in both the 10-city and 20-city composites we are up 13.6% for the year and 0.2% for the month of October.

Portland is at October 2005 levels at 160.46 (we also hit near here on the way down in December 2008).  This is up from last month reported by 0.2% and 12.7% increase for the year to date.

Take the day off, worrying about this for the end of the year will really get you nowhere.Whew...

 

The Full Report Here: The December 31 CS Report

 

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst





Case-Shiller Home Prices November 26, 2013 Report

26 11 2013

balloon

Still talk of a bubble with the over 20% appreciation in some Western States…

“The strong price gains in the West are sparking questions and concerns about the possibility of another bubble,” says David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee.  “However the talk is focused on fear of a bubble, not a rush to join the party and buy. Moreover, other data suggest a market beginning to shift to slower growth rather than one about to accelerate. Existing home sales weakened in the most recent report, home construction remains far below the boom levels of six or seven years ago and interest rates are expected to be higher a year from now.”

dart

The national index is up 11.2% year over year, the 10-city and 20-city composites are up 13.3%.  Only four of the cities are up over 1% from month to month while the others are all under 1% with the exception of Charlotte which posted -.02% for the month to month change.  Portland fared a 0.7% appreciation for the month to month reporting.

Portland’s level for September 2013 (this report) is 160.18.  This is comparable to October 2005 and November 2008 levels in the past.

Blitzer’s comments in this report are dead on as we are all experiencing an appreciating market but buyers are not in a frenzy mode as they were in 2005 and 2006.  Though multiple offers still exist in many areas of Portland, most well-priced homes simply are selling quickly with a single reasonable offer.  Buyers are taking their time to educate themselves on the market right now and pulling the trigger when they feel most comfortable and ready.  The true pressure of making up their minds quickly in 2013 has lifted compared to the hot market of the recent past.

balloons

View the full Report Here The November 26 CS Report

Dustin Miller
Broker/Analyst





Case-Shiller Home Prices October 29, 2013 Report

29 10 2013

No Drama Here

The news isn’t price increases or a slight tick of a slowdown, it is that we are almost making up news to post as the improvement of the market slowly gets healthy.

Last week, David Blitzer posted on his blog, “Existing home sales were down in September and mortgage rates are rising. Data hints that the housing recovery is slowing or could be ending… After solid year-over-year gains of 12% or more in prices with home prices rising in all 20 cities, we could see far smaller price gains and even a decline in some cities.”

That was to get us thinking the sky “might” be falling.  Come on, did you really look for the positive in that statement.

Today, David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices said, “The 10-City and 20-City Composites posted a 12.8% annual growth rate. Both Composites showed their highest annual increases since February 2006…Despite showing 26 consecutive annual gains, Detroit remains the only city below its January 2000 index level.”

The healthy growth of about 1% a month is pretty amazing if you were “alive” 5 years ago and reading the news about the real estate market then.

Afraid of a “bubble?”

“Denver and Dallas again set new highs. All the other cities remain below their peaks. Boston and Charlotte are the two MSAs closest to their peaks with only 8-9% left to go. Las Vegas is still down 47.1% from its peak level.” Said Blitzer

The bubble, with 13 cities in double-digit increases, of which, 4 of them are over 20% is unlikely according to the October 25 Corelogic report.  Corelogic Reported on October 25th Year over Year prices nationally were only 12.4%.  Most of the indices are still well away from an actual return to their June/July2006 levels.

Oregon excluding distressed properties posted a 12.2% increase in the Corelogic Report.  It also stated that we are still -15% away from returning to the peak along with many other cities.

For this Case-Shiller Report, Portland appreciated 13% over last year and 1.2% from the previous month.  We are currently near September/October 2013 levels up from last month of August 2005 levels.  Portland’s true peak was really July 2007 for the Case-Shiller Index and we are presently about 17.2% off of our peak levels still.

Plus, a bubble really is indicated by a “belief” that housing will continue to appreciate infinitely; and, we are still too fresh off the last burst balloon to believe that concept.

water balloon

View the Full Report Here:  The October 29 CS Report

 

Dustin Miller
Broker/Analyst





September 24, 2013 Case-Shiller Home Price Report

24 09 2013

middle of the tree“Home prices gains are holding their 12% annual rate of gain established by the two Composite indices in April,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices…Since April 2013, all 20 cities are up month to month; however, the monthly rates of price gains have declined. More cities are experiencing slow gains each month than the previous month, suggesting that the rate of increase may have peaked.”

Peaked in this case is only relative to what we have been experiencing as rapidly increasing prices in much of the country.  This is good news that it is slowing down and that we get to a balance of a little up and a little down now and then.  The stock market does it all the time.  Big gains are almost always followed by sharp declines.  This is THE MIDDLE….

Sometimes the middle is bad like being stuck between a rock and a hard place or between two sides of a fence.cow on gate  However, being in the middle of extremes such as safety and danger can feel pretty nice.cheetahs  Let’s take a quick glance at the Case-Shiller Home Index of the 20-City Composite (the composites are all close in comparison) in the past—in 2000 it was given a 100 level rating baseline and went up slowly until Fall of 2004 where it picked up the pace and peaked in August of 2006 at a 206.18 level.  Then, we bounced along the bottom going up and down from April 2009 to March of 2012 with lows of 139.26 in ’09 and 134.07 in ’12.  Now, we are climbing back up again with a new level of 162.49 which is equivalent to somewhere between May and June 2004.

How did that feel?  Not so great huh?  The point really is that slow and steady growth is healthy and comfortable but the extreme highs and lows don’t really feel good at all in the big picture.

The bad news, according to David Blitzer in an interview earlier this year, is that cities with over 20% increases in price may encounter a 2nd bubble bursting such as Vegas, LA, San Diego and San Francisco.  The good news is that 16 other cities were under that.  Others, like Cleveland, New York and Washington D.C. are taking their own sweet time in increasing well under 10% for the year.

Portland, you are sitting pretty at 12.2% with a level of 157.26.  That is almost a year ahead of the rest of the national averages putting us at levels between August and September of 2005!

And, that, is a nice and solid position to be in.

malcolm-in-the-middle

 

The Full Report Here

The Septmeber 24 Case-Shiller Report

 

Dustin Miller
Broker/Analyst





July 2013 Case-Shiller Home Price Report

30 07 2013

Another Report Breaking Records

“Home prices continue to strengthen,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Two cities set new highs, surpassing their pre-crisis levels and five cities – Atlanta, Chicago, San Diego, San Francisco and Seattle – posted monthly gains of over three percent, also a first time event.”

This is pretty big news– to gain on a monthly basis over 3 percentage points. It appears to be approaching frenzy in a few states this summer. Blitzer did not mention the two cities which set new pre-crisis highs.

The gain for the 10-city and 20-city composite was also significant at 2.5% and 2.4%.

Though the 20-City and 10-City composites appear to be at spring 2004 levels, Portland is at July 2005 levels with a figure of 151.91. It is also sitting nicely in the middle of the pack with a yearly gain of 12.5%.

People are wondering whether or not another bubble is being witnessed as well. David Blitzer mentioned a few months ago that we shouldn’t be concerned about a bubble until we see gains in the 20-30% range. Well, we have 4 in that category and 2 near 20%. There is no true way to predict the future. Many still unpublicized are cautious. In fact, I have seen a number of factors in the rental markets which reflect a move away from home buying to stay mobile and possibly steer clear of home ownership as a solid future investment.

It is hard to discern either way…this is only speculation as prices continue to increase monthly.

Frenzy

 

The full report here July 30, 2013 CS

–Dustin Miller
Broker / Market Analyst





Case-Shiller Home Prices May 28, 2013 Report

29 05 2013
Sales waters rising.

Sales waters rising.

Once again, the numbers are up and continuing to show a tremendous resurgence throughout the country for the S&P Case-Shiller Indices. Nationally, both composites seem to be gaining just over a 1% increase month-to-month in the past three months.

The big news is the double-digit increases over 2012 numbers.

“Home prices in all 20 cities posted annual gains for the third month in a row. Twelve of the 20 saw prices rise at double-digit annual growth. The National Index and the 10- and 20-City Composites posted their highest annual returns since 2006, said David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

“…The weakest annual price gains were seen in New York (+2.6%), Cleveland (+4.8%) and Boston (+6.7%); even these numbers are quite substantial.

Indeed they are! The low price gains are a 2%-6% gain over the past 12 months is great news for anyone living in the past 6 years of the real estate world.

Portland had its largest month-to-month gains in over seven years, according to the report. Portland gained 2.65% between February and March 2013. The last time we were close on gains month-to-month with 2.64% was in May 2012 and before that was June 2005 with 2.78%. San Francisco was highest at 3.9%.

The report states the 20-city and 10-city composites are back to their late 2003 price levels. Portland is at a number of 145.52 which has been seen in spring 2009 and 2010 and before that spring 2005. Our lowest number was 129.1 in March 2012 prior to the boom in real estate of 2005. Our highest was June 2007 at 185.76. Believe it or not, but the bottom of our market to date is really March 2012! We have had 5 drops down since June 2007, but the lowest point was just last year near this time.

Chart of the… Portland, OR Case Shiller History

That being said, 2013 doesn’t feel like it as we have had a 12.8% increase in price according the Case-Shiller since March 2012.

So, for now, the worst is behind us. Here’s to greener pastures without forgetting where we have been the last 6 years.

Portland's Rain Paying Off.

Portland’s Rain Paying Off.

View the full report here The May 28, 2013 CS Report

 

Dustin Miller
Broker/Market Analyst