February 28, 2017 Case-Shiller Report

28 02 2017

why-slow-steady-wins-race-1

Number 2 again… Well, as I said in last month’s report, it is the best place to be for any competitor going into the big game. Most eyes are on number one—who is Seattle in this case.

The best news coming out of this report, which is a little interesting for David Blitzer’s analysis, is the insight to volatility over the course of the last 25 years, specifically the recent boom-to-bust-to-boom.  Blitzer looked at both the Seattle and Portland markets and found the higher end properties (over $532,716) were less volatile than the lower end (under $335,111) over the years.

…“Another factor supporting rising home prices is mortgage rates. A 30-year fixed rate mortgage today is 4.2% compared to the 6.4% average since 1990. Another indicator that home price levels are normal can be seen in the charts of Seattle and Portland OR. In the boom-bust of 2005-2009, prices of low, medium, and high-tier homes moved together, while in other periods, including now, the tiers experienced different patterns,” said David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

tortoise-hare

 

All in all, we are moving upward slowly and steadily and that is how we have done it for the past 50 years.  Obviously we have had some bumps along the way, but, in general, it has been a slow climb upward.

 

In the coming month I will post an analysis on the home prices regarding the past 12 years and be comparing the highs and lows as well as the times of year they happened.  Stay tuned!

Understatement Of The Year!

“One factor behind rising home prices is low inventory. While sales of existing single family homes passed five million units at annual rates in January, the highest since 2007, the inventory of homes for sales remains quite low with a 3.6 month supply,” said Blitzer.

Portland is currently at 1.7 months of supply and yearning for more.  In fact, we have only had 2 or more months of inventory in only 5 occasions in the past 2 years.

ed-aq002_blinde_g_20121031182754

S&P Case-Shiller Numbers for December 2016

 

National

  • 8% up from last year
  • 2% up from last month

20 city—(Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, LasVegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco,  Seattle, Tampa, Washington.)

  • 9% up from last year
  • 3% up from last month

10 city—(Boston, Chicago, Denver, Vegas, LA, Florida, N.Y., San Diego, Miami, San Francisco)

  • 9% up from last year
  • 3% up from last month

 

Portland

10% up from last year

0.3% up from last month

 

Download the Case-Shiller Report here:case-shiller-february-28-2017

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Portland Metro Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group

 

 





Portland Tops Case Shiller May 2016 Numbers Again

26 07 2016

partydreamcolorparty

Once again Portland tops the S&P Case-Shiller Index for May 2016 at 12.5% year-over year appreciation.  Just like last month, where Seattle and Denver followed behind at a 10.7% and 9.5 rate.

With that everyone is asking about the bubble popping.  David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said “The two hottest areas during the housing boom were Florida and the Southwest. Miami and Tampa have recovered in the last few months while Las Vegas and Phoenix remain weak. When home prices began to recover, New York and Washington saw steady price growth; now both are among the weakest areas in the country.”

What that says to me, is that the slow down is what to expect.  Portland may slow down in number and in price, but it will be healthy for us.  Like sleeping in, once Daylight Savings Time is over; or, having a bowl of soup and reading a book.

Caution

Notice in the headlines for the cities which have slowed down, the “Chicken Little” lingo is not there.  New York, Washington and Cleveland all had under 3% appreciation for May 2016 numbers.

For the Spring!  Are you kidding me!  Nothing popped though.  The bottom didn’t fall out.  Mass hysteria is not flooding the streets.

At some point Portland will not be on top and can expect the same.  That’s it.  The number may go back to our normal 4-5% appreciation which we did for about 50 years on average in the past. And, that is a GOOD thing.  Go on vacation.  It will be here when you get back.

relax-hammock

The Full Report Here:case shiller may 2016

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Anaylst

 

 





Case-Shiller Home Prices January 26, 2016 Report

26 01 2016

Dorthy

Wow…

 

Here are the numbers of today’s Case Shiller Report.  Portland is at an all-time high for November 2015.  This is unheard of for a late Fall number ever in our recorded history.  It makes us all wonder what will come up in next month’s report on whether it is lower or higher.  We all expect the number to go down in the Winter, but based on this, it will be somewhat unclear to predict.

Lady

More soon!

Portland  Index

Jul-2007 186.51
Aug-2015 186.51
Nov-2015 189.47

 

National  Index

Jul-2006 184.62
Nov-2007 175.19
Nov-2015 175.71

 

10 City  Index

Jun-2006 226.29
Nov-2015 197.54

 

20 City Index

Jul-2006 206.52
Dec-2007 184.97
Jan-2008 180.68
Nov-2015 182.86

 

Top

 

The Full Report Here: 

Case Shiller January 26, 2015

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst

 





Case-Shiller Home Prices February 24, 2015 Report

6 03 2015
How do you see it?

              How do you see it?

Well Mr. Blitzer and I definitely seem to have different perspectives on these national reports of recent days.  He was so positive in 2013, I miss it.  Perhaps the extreme 2014-2015 winter is shaping his sunny opinions for the future.

“The housing recovery is faltering. While prices and sales of existing homes are close to normal, construction and new home sales remain weak. Before the current business cycle, any time housing starts were at their current level of about one million at annual rates, the economy was in a recession” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The softness in housing is despite favorable conditions elsewhere in the economy: strong job growth, a declining unemployment rate, continued low interest rates and positive consumer confidence.”

The collective indices are all under 5% for the one year change but most individual cities are up above that number for the year.  Many East Coast and Mid-West Cities are under 3%.  They put us back to autumn 2004 levels at this point.

half glass

New construction starts are only one measuring stick for “housing recovery” that Blitzer is referring to in this report.  So many different factors go into shaping that number today versus 8 years ago before the recession started.  For the Portland Metro Area, for instance, all of the governments in the area thought raising construction fees astronomically would be a good solution to their budget shortfalls.  These new charges are called “system development charges” and along with a strict Urban Growth Boundary, have kept Portland pretty low for new construction starts.  The state posted 0.03 growth numbers in Q4 of 2014 for new construction related indicators, however our sales prices and volumes are considered to be positive regionally.

Portland is staying the course, gradually climbing up in prices and not rapidly fluctuating up and down.  This spring prices may spike in March and April as the weather improves along with income.  We are between March and April 2006 as far as our Case-Shiller Indicator number of 170.70 in this report.

Stay tuned for the next report featuring the MarketPulse and Home Price Index Reports from CoreLogic, they both paint a totally different perspective on housing starts for 2015.

glass half

The Full Report Here: case shiller Feb 2015

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst





Case-Shiller Home Prices November 2014

25 11 2014

Light At The End of the Tunnel...

The light at the end of the tunnel is not a train as the Case-Shiller Home Price Press Release seems to state.  “The overall trend in home price increases continues to slow down…, said David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

What he didn’t say after that headline with the same emphasis, is that only the National Index posted a negative change for September -0.1%.  Nine cities in the 20-city composite posted negative numbers for the month-to-month change and 11 posted flat or positive numbers–the worst was -0.4% for D.C. and the best was 0.6% for Miami and Charlotte.light at end of tunnel is the sun

Portland, Oregon was Number 5 on the list for the 1-Year Change of 6.7% below Dallas 7.4% and above Denver 6.2% and Seattle 6.0%.  That is pretty impressive news Portland!

The scary “deceleration” word they used up-front that had us holding a match to our wallets, eventually became “stable to slightly better” for housing in 2015 at the end of the report.

If this was school, our mid-term grade sounds more like a C+ or B- with lots of room to improve next semester. A little more to the left…Puncheon's missed goal

Portland, Oregon as of November 25, 2014

All Active Homes, Pending and Sold Homes 30 days back from Today.

Inventory:                     2.3 Months

Average Sale Price:     $339,217 (up $3617 up 1% from last month)

Median Sale Price:       $293,500 (up $4500 up 1.5% from last month)

Days on The Market:   59 Days (down 6 days from last month)

# Active                         4,885 total overall

# Pending                      2,841 (361 more than Oct.)

# Sold                             2,094 (393 less than Oct.)

Big news for Portland that ALL realtors are talking about right now–  Inventory!  It is getting worse at 2.3 Months of Inventory if not another house came on the market we would run out in 2.3 months!  Just like Fall ’04 and ’05.

Supply and demand…supply goes down and demand goes up…prices go up.  It is simple business.  The light on the other side of the tunnel is the sun and the grass is greener there.

pastures

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst





Case-Shiller Home Prices February 25, 2014 Report

25 02 2014

‘Tis the season…

When we start going down month-to-month, we as a nation in the marketplace start talking about how the year ended versus the previous year.

Winter Weather 'Tis the season

 “In December, the 10-City Composite remained relatively unchanged while the 20-City Composite showed its second consecutive monthly decline of 0.1%. Year-over-year, the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted gains of 13.6% and 13.4%, approximately 30 basis points lower than their November rates,” the report stated.

“The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index ended its best year since 2005,” said David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices… Recent economic reports suggest a bleaker picture for housing. Existing home sales fell 5.1% in January from December to the slowest pace in over a year. Permits for new residential construction and housing starts were both down and below expectations. Some of the weakness reflects the cold weather in much of the country. However, higher home prices and mortgage rates are taking a toll on affordability…but bank lending standards remain strict.”

For the composites nationally, the report states that prices are back to Spring 2004 levels but Portland is fairing much better in the report where prices are closer to levels in the fall of 2005.

Another high point in the report for Portland, Oregon is the seasonally adjusted averages where they are negative for the last two reports for month-to-month numbers (-0.1 and -0.3), but when seasonally adjusted they post positive numbers of 0.7% for both reports.

home snowAll in all Portland is still much better off going back to its old self of gradually climbing up in prices and not rapidly fluctuating up and down.  I expect the “season” to sway prices up once again as we move toward spring 2014.

At least our season is shut down like the Great Lakes states too.  They pretty much have to wait for late spring to buy and sell houses!

For sale

The Full Report Here: The February 25 CS Report

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst





Case-Shiller Home Prices January 28, 2013 Report

28 01 2014
The Deschutes River Canyon

The Deschutes River Canyon

We keep going up and up, maybe just a little bit, but we keep going up.

“Home prices continue to rise despite last May’s jump in mortgage interest rates. Mortgage applications for purchase were up in recent weeks confirming home builders’ optimism shown by the NAHB survey. ..While housing will make further contributions to the economy in 2014, the pace of price gains is likely to slow during the year,” said David Blitzer, Chairman of the S&P Case-Shiller Indices.

This means they are trending in a positive direction headed into winter (this report covers November 2013), which typically is a slow time of the season.  What is appears to be trending toward is a steady up and down this winter by small percentages here and there.  It is nothing to freak out about;Freaking out and, not worth getting overly excited about as well.  It appears we are learning our lesson from the last time prices began to increase dramatically.  This is a typical plateau for the nation.  Perhaps, we may stay here throughout 2014.  It is hard to say with the factors of inflation, mortgage rates, jobs and the economy.

 

Portland is at May 2005 levels for this report.  We also hit this number in January 2010 when the market was declining and again between February and March 2013. For this report, Portland is down for the month of -0.3% but up for the year of 12.5%.  This is the middle of the pack for the nation between the low of 6% for New York and the high of 27.3% for Las Vegas.

 

Once again, stay calm.  This report is if anything very encouraging for near winter numbers.  The increases are not hurling us toward another bubble.

 

The Full Report Here: The January 28 CS Report

cat calm

 

 

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst

 (A cat photo to sooth the soul)