RMLS MARKET ACTION MARCH 2015

Days of 2008…

In December 2007, the real estate market was issued a threatening letter from the economy that the water would be shut off due to non-payment.  By December 2008, the water was shut off and we had 810 homes pending and 987 homes sold.  The market dried up to the equivalent of a chile…not even a raisin.

Well, here we are today, after the water was turned back on in 2012 went from a trickle to moderate flow through March 2015.

February 2015 pending sales volume reached 2534 and the closed sales hit 1648.  This is only 347 homes off the closed number for February 2005!

Of course the pending homes were huge in that year at 3209 compared to this year at 2534. I calculated my own early numbers for March and we are at 2682 for the pending sales 30 days back from the 15th of March.

Corelogic’s Foreclosure Report just reported that Oregon has 1.6% of its homes in foreclosure, putting it on the bottom third of the nation.  Normally we fall higher up in the middle for national averages.

Corelogic’s Home Price Index had Oregon at #5 in the report for the whole nation in price appreciation compared to the other 49 states; and, 8.7% away from our peak prices in July 2007.

Corelogic’s Marketpulse Report  has at #10 in the nation since 1976 for Minimum, Maximum and Current home price appreciation.

The flow may not be gushing like little Joel Miller drinking from the firehose in UHF circa 1989, but it certainly has recovered nicely for Spring 2015 in Portland, Oregon.

Compared to Last Year

• Inventory down to 3 months.
• Closed sales up 12.3%.
• Pending sales up 37.1% !
• New listings up 22.5%.
• Average Sales Price up 0.8%
• Median Sales Price 2.2%

Compared to Last Month

• Closed sales up 11.6%
• Pending sales up 10.5%
• New listings up 4.4%
• Average Sales Price Down 0.4%
• Median Sales Price Up 1.8%

The Full Reports Below:

RMLS March 2015 Market Action

Corelogic Marketpulse Feb 2015

Corelogic HPI Jan 2015

Corelogic Foreclosure Report Jan 2015

Dustin Miller

Real Estate Market Analyst

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CoreLogic Home Price Index March 2013 Report

Another positive report nationally for sales prices from the CoreLogic Home Price Index Report released today. All states but Delaware and Illinois posted positive appreciation for the year. The top states were Arizona (+20.1 percent), Nevada (+17.4 percent), Idaho (+14.9 percent), California (+14.1 percent) and Hawaii (+14.0 percent) including distressed sales. The top states excluding distressed sales were Nevada (+17.5 percent), Arizona (+16.5 percent), California (+14.5 percent), Hawaii (+13.9 percent) and Idaho (+13.2 percent).

Oregon posted a 9.1% appreciation including distressed sales and an 8.5% appreciation excluding distressed sales between January 2012-January 2013.

Nationally Including Distressed Sales
Up 9.7% in Price from previous year– January 2012
Up 0.7% in price from previous month– December 2012

Nationally Excluding Distressed Sales
Up 9.0% in Price from previous year– January 2012
Up 1.8% in price from previous month– December 2012

National Prediction Including Distressed sales for February
Up 9.7% in Price from previous year—February 2012
Up 0.3% in price from previous month—January 2013 (Seasonal slow-down)

National Prediction Excluding Distressed sales for February
Up 11.3% in Price from previous year—February 2012
Up 1.8% in Price from previous month—January 2013

The CoreLogic Home Price Index tracks 30 years of repeat sales transactions for the same homes over time for both distressed and non-distressed properties. The data reflects the results of the month prior and further. This is different than the National Association of Realtors Report who is one month back but tracks all home sales as well as pending statistics. And, the Case-Schiller Report reports data 2 months back and beyond of all homes sales. CoreLogic believes this unique system of tracking is slightly more accurate as to home price appreciation and depreciation.

As a comparison, the Case-Shiller Report for December 2012 data posted a 6.8% appreciation for the previous 12 months in their 20-City Composite (as close to National as they get). Portland posted a 6.5% appreciation for the same period. The NAR Report for the nation in January posted a 12.3% appreciation for the year. And, finally, our own Portland Metro RMLS Report posted a 15.5% average sales price and 19.5% median sales price appreciation for January 2012-January 2013. RMLS reported a -0.9% drop in the average sales price month-to-month from December 2012 and a 0% change in the median sales price.

So, what does it all mean? Active recovery… It appears the housing market is the patient on the list for being discharged from the hospital in the future. The spinach can is close enough for home prices to suck through our pipe. It isn’t hard for many of us brokers with boots on the ground in Portland to even have a more optimistic opinion of that statement as well.

January 2013 Home Price Index Report