February 22, 2011 Case-Shiller Report for Portland, Oregon

22 02 2011

Nothing new.  A small confirmation of what we already knew right now.  “We have seen more markets hit new lows in each of the past three months,” said David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s.

 One thing we have to take into account is that this report measured data in Q4 of 2010.  It is currently Q1 in 2011.  Many of the indications I am seeing now are a small tick up in numbers, not necessarily price numbers, but sales numbers.

 In this report, San Diego and Washington D.C. survived one more report of staying up 1.7% and 4.1% year over year respectively.  Vegas, Miami, Phoenix and Tampa all hit new lows in December 2010.  Atlanta, Charlotte, Portland and Seattle also showed weakness and posted lows since the peak of 2007.

 Blitzer also said, “The National Index is within a percentage point of the low it set in the first quarter of 2009.”

 Right now Portland is at a 138.23 level which means it is up 38.23% from the “zero” price point set at (100) in the year 2000.  Portland’s previous low in the last Case-Shiller report was 139.92.  This is near equal to the March 2005 when Case-Shiller Feb 22,1011Portland was at 138.30.  This is positive news compared to many of the other cities across our nation which are near 2003 levels; or, even Cleveland and Las Vegas which are now below January 2000 levels.

Keep swimming, land is near!  

Here is the full report.  

Case-Shiller Feb 22,1011

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February 2011 Portland Real Estate Market Action

16 02 2011

Pre-Jump Wheely

It appears we are following suit on inventory in Portland with a huge 62.5% jump in new listings bringing us up 3 ½ months to 11.3 months.  Just like Evel Knievel, this trend is typical for us “new market era” realtors…we’ve seen it before in each year and we know what the other side will look like when we get there.In 2009-2010, we were worse off with almost a 5-month gain.  In 2008-2009, we were up 5.1 months and 2007-2008 was 4.3 months.  Back in the good ‘ole days between 2006-2007 we gained 1.7 months between December and January.

 Compared to Last Year

Inventory down 1.3 months.

Closed sales up 5%.

Pending sales down 3%

New listings dropped 20.5%.

Compared to Last Month

Closed sales down 29.2%

Pending sales up 23.1%

New listings cranked up 62.5%

The Red Pill or The Blue Pill

 The blue pill to swallow is on price.  The red pill is on sales —down 29.2% for closings, but up 23.1% for pending sales.  That fuels the figures for next month’s market action in a good direction. 

$ Compared to Last Year

Ave. Price down 11.9%

Med.Price down 10.4%.

$ Compared to Last Month

Ave. Price down 10.5% (practically as much as last year’s total!)

Med. Price 6.5%

 The closed sales figure could be a reflection of “attitude” from people involved in real estate, be it buyers or sellers.  The happy home buyer was confused with inventory and teetering on a new record low from the Case Schiller report recently.  The frustrated seller was on the ropes in the ring of dropping prices, trying to pick up a buyer with only the “slash price” choice if he wanted to sell to a small pool (kiddie-sized, uncomfortably warm and 18” deep) of buyers.

 To end on an up note…this slowing process of price decline will help Portland to land softly in the short-term future.  Although we didn’t think it could go down any further, it did.  The looming interest rates and slow-growing economy will start to point at another new bottom figure soon.  We just won’t know for sure until we get behind it. 

The Full Report

 February 2011 Portland Oregon Market Action





January 2011 Market Action Report

15 01 2011

 Finally, the inventory we were hoping for last month!  New listings decreased by 22.2% percent and dropped those Christmas feasting pounds of 2.3 months off the inventory.  Portland Metro is now at 7.9 months.  What does that mean?  Well, it means buyers and sellers are inching closer to a balanced market where homes sell slowly but surely; and, less pressure is put on the average and median sale price.

 

The Numbers

  1. Inventory December 2009 was 7.7 months and was 7.9 months for this report.
  2. Pending sales +6% over Dec. 2009 and -15.2% from Nov. 2010.
  3. Closed sales -2.9% over Dec. 2009 and +14% from Nov. 2010.
  4.  Ave. sale price is -5.2% from Dec. 2009 and +2.2% from Nov. 2010.
  5. Median sale price is -5% from last year and -1.3% from last month.
  6. 10 houses pending over $1M and 13 closed in December.  With ten possible closings on the horizon the average sale price number could hang in there for another month.
  • Last report = 12 houses pending over $1M pending and only 5 closed.  If these all close in 30 days we could see a significant price improvement in the average sales price and less of one in the median sale price.
  • Result of prediction TRUE.  “Significant” was wrong but decent in proportion to falling prices.

    7.  Time on the market is +.0006% and holding nicely to finish the

           year -6.8%.

Baby Steps to the market...

 We can’t predict the future really, but we can celebrate the break in the sun for now.  As Bob Wiley said in the 1991 movie, What About Bob?, “…baby step onto the elevator… baby step into the elevator… I’m in the elevator….AHHHHHHHHHHHH!”

January 2011 Market Action





December Case Shiller Report

28 12 2010

We have been on this ride before.

Portland, Oregon Made Headlines This Morning on a national scale.  Along with Atlanta, Charlotte, Seattle, Miami and Tampa, Portland hit a average sales price below the previous lows of Spring 2009.

“The double-dip is almost here, as six cities set new lows for the period since the 2006 peaks. There is no good news in October’s report. Home prices across the country continue to fall.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “The trends we have seen over the past few months have not changed…”

 

Apparently the ride is still going on.

The economy and poor business climate of this state has affected our market.  Without jobs and a stable economy, those people who have to sell must sell at whatever price they can in order to get out.  Never did 11 months of inventory feel so lop-sided in our general marketplace.

The good news is that it is all local, even within the boundaries of the Portland Metro region.  Some areas of town are still low on inventory and actually seeing price increases according to RMLS data.  The other great news is that perhaps home buyers are moving into areas where prices have kept them away and boosting the local schools and struggling municipal services available to them.

As the sign in your dentist’s office reads on the ceiling, “Hang In There Baby!”

December 28, 2010 Case Shiller Chart