December 2016 End of Year RMLS Market Action Compared to National Reporting

17 01 2017

2017

Well, let’s wrap it up with a summary of bullet points for 2016.  All in all, we are in a good position for the real estate market in 2017.  Whether we end up breaking more records or dropping to the middle of the pack like the many years prior, an increase of even small amounts is still an increase and; frankly, much healthier in the long run.  Portland, as well as the state, has always been under the radar for home prices hiding in the middle of the national numbers near center.  See where being in the top 3 has got us this year…

News:

  • Oregon is the 6th largest growing state according to U.S. Census Bureau—80% from out-of-state folks, 20% from new births exceeding deaths.

Pocket watch in snow, New Year 2017 greeting card

December 2016 S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller—numbers from October 2016

  • Portland at 10.3% average sales price appreciation, #2 in the Nation.
  • All 20 cities measured saw a month-to-month increase this year.
  • Nationally we are on a healthy plateau around 5.6% unlike we have seen in the past 20 years. We are neither rising quickly nor declining quickly.

Corelogic Equity Report Q3 2016

  • Oregon averaged $26K in equity gain since 2015.
  • Oregon average is 52.4% of loan-to-value of all homes mortgaged.

Corelogic Home Price Insights Report –numbers from October 2016

  • Connecticut was the only state which showed a negative for price appreciation year-over-year at -0.7%.
  • The National figure for year-over –year is 6.7% on average.
  • Oregon experienced 9.9% year-over-year appreciation (#2 between Washington and Colorado) and forecast next year to drop to 5.3%.

2017-roll-forward

RMLS Market Action End of Year 2016

Compared to Last Year

  • Inventory up to 1.3 months from 1.2.
  • Closed sales down -3.3%.
  • Pending sales down -9.2%
  • New listings down -7.6%.
  • Average Sales Price up 8.6%
  • Median Sales Price up 9.3%

Compared to Last Month

  • Inventory down to 1.3 months from 1.8.
  • Closed sales up 7.7%
  • Pending sales down -22.5%
  • New listings down -31.7%
  • Average Sales Price up 0.6%
  • Median Sales Price down -0.5%

RMLS Market Action December 2016: december-2016-market-action

hood-sunrise

Dustin Miller
Broker/Analyst

 

 

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September 27, 2016 Case Shiller Report

27 09 2016

fall-is-coming

Once again, Portland leads the nation in year-over-year appreciation for the sixth month in a row.  Not a surprise based on the July numbers for us since summer is generally always the hottest price appreciation month each year.  That being said, Portland numbers are slowing down based on the RMLS Market Action for August numbers.  The Market Action had Portland go down in August by 1.7%.  That is most likely a prediction that the numbers will go down as well for the Case Shiller Index next month.

However, we most likely will make the top three next month for the Case Shiller Index year-over-year appreciation even if the number goes down.  Relax and let fall settle in.  Cozy up to a warm blanket and hot cup of coffee as the market cools a bit seasonally as it always does.  It does not mean that the home you just purchased a month or so ago has specifically lost value.  Even if it does, we will bounce back as always in the Spring.  Don’t let fear settle in as long term appreciation in real estate is always your best investment.

coffee

Finally, the chart Case Shiller put on the report this month for peak-to-trough and rebound percentages is the most interesting part of this report for Portland.  I added Portland into the chart below for a little perspective.

S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Indices Peak to Trough Analysis

2006 Peak 2012 Trough   Current  
Index Level Date Level Date From Peak % Level From Trough % From Peak %
National 184.62 Jul-06 134.01 Feb-12 27.4% 183.57 37.0% -0.6%
20-City 206.52 Jul-06 134.07 Mar-12 35.1% 190.91 42.4% -7.6%
10-City 229.29 Jun-06 146.45 Mar-12 35.3% 204.92 39.9% -9.4%
Portland 186.51 Jul-07 129.01 Mar-12 30.8% 207.46 60.8% 11.2%

Portland was above the national level at its peak a year after the rest of the nation in July 2007 at 186.51.  Then we crashed harder than all the averages in March of 2012 with a low of 129.01.  However, we only crashed 30.8% which was 3.4% above the National Average and below the other two indices.  Then “pow” we rebounded up 60.8% above that low from March 2012 and currently stand 11.2% above our all-time high from July 2007.  So even if we lose a few points, Portland will still remain strong for real estate in the future.  Yes, we will slow down as a typical real estate cycle, but the bubble is highly unlikely due to all the rules and regulations executed in the recession years.

National

  • 1% up from last year
  • 7% up from last month

20 city—(Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, LasVegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco,  Seattle, Tampa, Washington.)

  • 0% up from last year
  • 6% up from last month

10 city—(Boston, Chicago, Denver, Vegas, LA, Florida, N.Y., San Diego, Miami, San Francisco)

  • 2% up from last year
  • 5% up from last month

 

Portland–#26 in population countrywide but included nonetheless. Take note.

  •             12.4% up from last year
  •             1.2% up from last year

linus-peanuts-tease-160211

 

The Full Report Here:case-shiller-september-27-2016

Dustin Miller

Broker/Portland Metro Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group

 

 





Market Shift Confirmed This Month In Portland

15 09 2016
little-richard

Happy Birthday Tutti Fruitti

The news as we expected has come…just a little earlier than we might have thought.    I was thinking more for the September numbers this year, though, in speaking with my colleagues, we all felt it coming.  Rocking #1 on the Case Shiller Index for price (3 months back) Portland finally saw the cooling off period start last month.  The bubble didn’t burst. It is like a 10-year-old boy slowly letting out the air and making that annoying squeaking sound as it screams between the thin latex layers.

 

Freak out? little-richard-magnificen-001

No.

Adjust. And adapt.way-back

 

The average sales price of -1.7% and median sales price of -0.6% between July and August of this year is the concern for all who are still on the market today.  I thought I might find more surprising data, but over the past 5 years our summer months have been very spotty on these month-to-month numbers.  In July 2015 we went up 3.0% and 3.1% for the average and median and in July 2015 we went down -0.1% and -0.6%.  It has been like this every summer since 2012 where one month is up and another is down during the summer.  The significance to this summer is our double digit appreciation leading up to it and what these numbers may do this Fall and Winter to either keep it up or balance it out.

dong

 

 

Compared to Last Year

  • Inventory unchanged 1.9 months from 1.9.
  • Closed sales down -3.1%.
  • Pending sales down -0.7%
  • New listings up 8.3%.
  • Average Sales Price up 9.7%
  • Median Sales Price up 11.5%

 

Compared to Last Month

  • Inventory unchanged at 1.9 months from 1.9.
  • Closed sales up 8.1%
  • Pending sales down 0.7%
  • New listings down -3.9%
  • Average Sales Price down -1.7%
  • Median Sales Price down -1.6%

The Full Report Here: portland-metro-market-action-august-2016

 

Dustin Miller

Market Analyst

Portland, Oregon





Market Shift Coming Faster Than Expected In Portland

12 08 2016

shock

Well the numbers for the July 2016 Portland Metro Market Action came as a little bit of a shock yesterday as we saw the median sales price tick down 1.9% from the previous month in June.  Sales are down by 12.1% which is somewhat expected with low inventory.  The last time we saw this happen was in 2012 when we went down 12.1% as well.  The previous 3 years we have actually increased by 10.2%, 2.3%, and 4.5% for sales from month to month.

batman

However, we have not seen a price drop in the median this large since 2010 went we went down 1.6%.  In 2009 we dropped 13.3% between June and July.  This is a pretty sharp move for the metro area in such a short time when prices generally move slightly up or down during the summer.  In 2015, we went down 0.6% in the same month-to-month period.

33476-ca_029_calvin_hobbes_ponder__65012

 

Compared to Last Year

  • Inventory up to 1.9 months from 1.7.
  • Closed sales down -19.6%.
  • Pending sales down 5.5%
  • New listings up 2.3%.
  • Average Sales Price down 10.3%
  • Median Sales Price up 11.6%

 

Compared to Last Month

  • Inventory up to 1.9 months from 1.5.
  • Closed sales down -12.1%
  • Pending sales down -2.6%
  • New listings down -2.9%
  • Average Sales Price down -1.2%
  • Median Sales Price down -1.9%

arrows

 

The Full Report Here:July 2016 Market Action

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst





RMLS MARKET ACTION FEBRUARY 2016

14 03 2016

scary

News?…..

 

It is in the numbers.  We are starting this year out on price $1000.00 above the highest recorded Average Sales price for 2015.  That is a little scary for Portlanders.  We don’t want to be anywhere near the top or breaking records.  Historically we are always a market which is slow to rise and hanging in the middle.  With this kind of start we need to be thinking about the future and what it holds for us.

200-meters-starting-blocks

Should buyers be more cautious on what they are willing to pay to help reign in the race?  Or, should sellers take the more conservative, but sound financial offer in a multiple offer situation in order to ensure a stable transaction?

 

We will find out in the summer where the prices are usually the highest for us…

off in the distance

 

Compared to Last Year

Inventory down to 1.8 months from 3.0.

Closed sales up 10%.

Pending sales up 9.9%

New listings up 0.4%.

Average Sales Price up 11.3%

Median Sales Price 10.5%

 

Compared to Last Month

Inventory steady at 1.8 months.

Closed sales down 2.5%

Pending sales up 24.2%

New listings up 15%

Average Sales Price up 2.6%

Median Sales Price up 1.6%

 

 

 

The Full Report  February Market Action 2016

 

Dustin Miller

Real Estate Market Analyst





Case-Shiller Home Prices January 26, 2016 Report

26 01 2016

Dorthy

Wow…

 

Here are the numbers of today’s Case Shiller Report.  Portland is at an all-time high for November 2015.  This is unheard of for a late Fall number ever in our recorded history.  It makes us all wonder what will come up in next month’s report on whether it is lower or higher.  We all expect the number to go down in the Winter, but based on this, it will be somewhat unclear to predict.

Lady

More soon!

Portland  Index

Jul-2007 186.51
Aug-2015 186.51
Nov-2015 189.47

 

National  Index

Jul-2006 184.62
Nov-2007 175.19
Nov-2015 175.71

 

10 City  Index

Jun-2006 226.29
Nov-2015 197.54

 

20 City Index

Jul-2006 206.52
Dec-2007 184.97
Jan-2008 180.68
Nov-2015 182.86

 

Top

 

The Full Report Here: 

Case Shiller January 26, 2015

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst

 





RMLS MARKET ACTION MARCH 2015

16 03 2015
Days of 2008...

Days of 2008…

In December 2007, the real estate market was issued a threatening letter from the economy that the water would be shut off due to non-payment.  By December 2008, the water was shut off and we had 810 homes pending and 987 homes sold.  The market dried up to the equivalent of a chile…not even a raisin.

Chilis

Well, here we are today, after the water was turned back on in 2012 went from a trickle to moderate flow through March 2015.

Low Flow

February 2015 pending sales volume reached 2534 and the closed sales hit 1648.  This is only 347 homes off the closed number for February 2005!

Enjoying the moderation

Of course the pending homes were huge in that year at 3209 compared to this year at 2534. I calculated my own early numbers for March and we are at 2682 for the pending sales 30 days back from the 15th of March.

Corelogic’s Foreclosure Report just reported that Oregon has 1.6% of its homes in foreclosure, putting it on the bottom third of the nation.  Normally we fall higher up in the middle for national averages.

Corelogic’s Home Price Index had Oregon at #5 in the report for the whole nation in price appreciation compared to the other 49 states; and, 8.7% away from our peak prices in July 2007.

Fountains

Corelogic’s Marketpulse Report  has at #10 in the nation since 1976 for Minimum, Maximum and Current home price appreciation.

The flow may not be gushing like little Joel Miller drinking from the firehose in UHF circa 1989, but it certainly has recovered nicely for Spring 2015 in Portland, Oregon.

Compared to Last Year

  • Inventory down to 3 months.
  • Closed sales up 12.3%.
  • Pending sales up 37.1% !
  • New listings up 22.5%.
  • Average Sales Price up 0.8%
  • Median Sales Price 2.2%

Compared to Last Month

  • Closed sales up 11.6%
  • Pending sales up 10.5%
  • New listings up 4.4%
  • Average Sales Price Down 0.4%
  • Median Sales Price Up 1.8%

The Full Reports Below:

RMLS March 2015 Market Action

Corelogic Marketpulse Feb 2015

Corelogic HPI Jan 2015

Corelogic Foreclosure Report Jan 2015

Dustin Miller

Real Estate Market Analyst