Where is the Million Dollar Market? Or the Six Million Dollar Market? Only a Lee Majors fan would know.

29 07 2018

steve austin 1

Right now we have the most homes for sale, the greatest number of pending homes and the greatest number of sold homes in the Portland Metro Market’s history.  It is the time to assess your home’s value.

The average days on the market time is down 7.8% from last year and all of the previous years.  This is from the correctly priced homes coming on the market and selling quickly in the luxury market perspective.  They are still selling for less than asking around 96% in June 2018 of listing price though.

So, if you are listed at $2.25M and sell for $90,000 less than that, will you be o.k.?  Is this a big victory after you paid $1.4M ten years ago and made some big improvements and kept it up?

Prices are going down in the luxury market.  This is news most agents won’t tell you.  Why, because no one studies these numbers more than me.  Numbers are a dangerously truthful way at presenting information on the luxury market. The average sales price over $1M has decreased 4% from last year in Portland.

They are still better prices from 4 years ago generally appreciating at a $125,000 per year in four years.Six-Million-Dollar-Man-six-million-dollar-man-659516_290_367

And…inventory is way down.  I mean way down.  18.9% from last year and half of what it was 4 years ago.  That would generally mean a rise in prices, not so in our luxury market.  Under $1M in Portland, Oregon and you are sitting on 2.1 months of inventory and rising prices with it.  Over $1M and the data leans against normal conventions…why?

This is one area where the perplexing low supply and high demand has not driven up prices.  It is a fascinating group which has been playing picky on both sides.

Here is a quick table of the last 15 years of numbers in the Luxury Market

June 2018 (Quarterly)

Homes For Sale in June 2018 (End of Qtr): 587 units.

Up 37.5% compared to last quarter
Up 21.3% compared to last year

Home Closed in June 2018 (Quarterly): 241 units.

Up 95.9% compared to last quarter
Up 27.5% compared to last year

Home Placed under Contract in June 2018 (Quarterly): 264 units.

Up 45.1% compared to last quarter
Up 31.3% compared to last year

 

Up in all categories over 5 and 15 years is the hard evidence.  Yes, the prices are slowing down, but the sales are up!  Take advantage of this market today.  And be glad you are not in Manhattan…which is probably where the hype started.

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April 19, 2017 Real Estate Market Report

19 04 2017

dentist office posterPortland Metro Market Action Report

Well, well, well…a price jump of 6% in a single month!  Looks huge compared to the NAR’s national average for the entire country, which is the Non-Seasonally Adjusted figure of 5.8% from last year!

New listings jumped up as well by 43%, however, different than last March, the pending sales gobbled them right up with a parallel jump of 28.5% compared to last year which was only a 10.4% jump from the previous month.bronco

The other news is the median sales price for the Portland Metro Area being at $370,000!  Last year the peak number was $362,000 in June.  If we are above that number for 2017 already, you can forecast this year’s number to peak again higher easily.  Hang on!  The ride is not over yet…

The largest dilemma facing our industry is inventory—we need more houses on the market to balance out the demand facing supply.  If you are leaving the area, you will have no problem selling your home in a week if correctly priced.  However, if you are relocating to another spot here in the Portland the challenge to find a spot to land is very Hamster hangs on a ropedifficult.  Only a licensed professional agent will be able to help you navigate this landscape—trust me.  The other very difficult challenge is finding the ability to purchase without selling your home first.  This market will very rarely accept a contingent offer on the closing of your home first.  Back in the heyday of real estate in 2005-2006 bridge loans provided this ability constantly.  Now, there are only a handful of companies doing this and, once again, that is where an agent will be able to assist in locating one who fits your needs.

 

Median By Portland Area                % up from Last Year

Beaverton                     $328,000         13.1

Tigard                            $405,000         11.0

Lake Oswego                $530,000         11.6

Milwaukie                     $358,000          8.8

Oregon City                  $355,000         10.1

West Portland               $499,900         11.1

North Portland             $385,000         10.0

Northeast Portland      $390,000         15.0

Southeast Portland      $322,000         11.0

goat climb

RMLS Market Action March 2017

Compared to Last Year

  • Inventory even from 1.3 months from 1.3 months.
  • Closed sales down -2.8%.
  • Pending sales down -1.1%
  • New listings up 5.7%.
  • Average Sales Price up 11.2%
  • Median Sales Price up 10.4%

Compared to Last Month

  • Inventory down to 1.3 months from 1.9.
  • Closed sales up 49.4%
  • Pending sales up 28.5%
  • New listings up 43%
  • Average Sales Price up 6%
  • Median Sales Price up 4.7%

Portland Metro Market Action March 2017

Dustin Miller

Broker/Portland Metro Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group





January 31, 2017 Case-Shiller Report

1 02 2017

mt-hood-sunrise

First and foremost, the numbers from this report are from data in November 2016.  Secondly, Portland landed at #2 again for this month which is still very strong for the national average.

 

“With the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rising at about 5.5% annual rate over the last two-and-a-half years and having reached a new all-time high recently, one can argue that housing has recovered from the boom-bust cycle that began a dozen years ago, says David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices…disposable income has risen at about a 2.5% annual rate for 30 months.”

january-trees-highlights

Oak Grove Fork Clackamas River

What does this really mean?  Well, the encouraging part is that we are going up at a slow and steady pace, even in the late fall months, which is seasonally unexpected.  This is due mostly to our very low inventory for the area (1.2 months).  Supply is low and demand is still high for Portland, Oregon.  As I read in the CoreLogic MarketPulse this month, there is a large outward migration still flowing from California counties.  In Los Angeles and Orange counties, the outward migration is going to outlying counties due to affordability.  The median sales price for a home in Orange County is $639,000 and $544,000 for Los Angeles County.

 

“…about 24 out of the 100 households were buying outside of the county (Los Angeles),” said Archana Pradhan, Economist for CoreLogic…About one-third of the net outflow, representing 6 percent of current residents who want to buy, are buying out of state.”

Microsoft Word - hood trillium lake photo.docx

Holly Fischer Photography

 

 

 

Portland’s median home price was $349,900 in December 2016.  This fact is perhaps not bringing in refugees from other states at an alarming rate, but it surely looks good for those seeking to relocate and get more home for the price.  That amount of demand, no matter how small or large, is putting pressure on those in-state who are also competing for the rare low number of home in inventory for the Portland Metropolitan area—1.2 months!

 

S&P Case Shiller Numbers

National

  • 6% up from last year
  • 2% up from last month

20 city—(Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, LasVegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco,  Seattle, Tampa, Washington.)

  • 3% up from last year
  • 2% up from last month

10 city—(Boston, Chicago, Denver, Vegas, LA, Florida, N.Y., San Diego, Miami, San Francisco)

  • 5% up from last year
  • 2% up from last month

 

Portland

10.1% up from last year

0.2% up from last month

 

Case-Shiller Report case-shiller-january-31-2017

 

tracks-in-the-snow

My hike in the snow last spring

Dustin Miller

Broker/Portland Metro Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group





Market Shift Coming Faster Than Expected In Portland

12 08 2016

shock

Well the numbers for the July 2016 Portland Metro Market Action came as a little bit of a shock yesterday as we saw the median sales price tick down 1.9% from the previous month in June.  Sales are down by 12.1% which is somewhat expected with low inventory.  The last time we saw this happen was in 2012 when we went down 12.1% as well.  The previous 3 years we have actually increased by 10.2%, 2.3%, and 4.5% for sales from month to month.

batman

However, we have not seen a price drop in the median this large since 2010 went we went down 1.6%.  In 2009 we dropped 13.3% between June and July.  This is a pretty sharp move for the metro area in such a short time when prices generally move slightly up or down during the summer.  In 2015, we went down 0.6% in the same month-to-month period.

33476-ca_029_calvin_hobbes_ponder__65012

 

Compared to Last Year

  • Inventory up to 1.9 months from 1.7.
  • Closed sales down -19.6%.
  • Pending sales down 5.5%
  • New listings up 2.3%.
  • Average Sales Price down 10.3%
  • Median Sales Price up 11.6%

 

Compared to Last Month

  • Inventory up to 1.9 months from 1.5.
  • Closed sales down -12.1%
  • Pending sales down -2.6%
  • New listings down -2.9%
  • Average Sales Price down -1.2%
  • Median Sales Price down -1.9%

arrows

 

The Full Report Here:July 2016 Market Action

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst





Portland Metro March 2016 Market Action

14 04 2016
early harvest

Early Harvest

March is a month of new growth.  First the crocus, then the daffodils and lastly the tulips emerge from the ground along with the new homes coming on the market.  This year it appears that the buyers are beating the animals at gobbling up the new growth on the market.  Closed sales are up over 40% this month.  We are not used to breaking new records in the housing market after the groundhog predicts an early spring.  This market is like harvesting tomatoes in August for Portland!

Tomatoes

Compared to Last Year

  • Inventory down to 1.3 months from 1.9.
  • Closed sales up 4.4%.
  • Pending sales down 9.1%
  • New listings down 5.2%.
  • Average Sales Price up 14.2%
  • Median Sales Price 15.5%

Compared to Last Month

  • Inventory down to 1.3 months.
  • Closed sales up 41.5%
  • Pending sales up 10.4%
  • New listings up 17.7%
  • Average Sales Price up 5.5%
  • Median Sales Price up 6.3%

 

The last time we had a jump this high in a single month was August 2005 of 5.4% for the Average Sales Price and 5.18% for the Median Sales Price.  Which means this is the highest price increase month-to-month in Portland’s recorded history!

lopez

Lopez Lomong

Sure enough, the figures for the average sales price and the median sales price are also the highest we have ever seen in both categories.

Danger

Is it a Bubble? Right now, all indicators are pointing more toward a slowing down to a normal balanced market rather than a burst of a bubble down the road.  Incomes are barely keeping up and regulations have kept a tight rein on unsecured debt in the mortgage-backed securities market.

bubble-burst

The Full Report:  March Market Action 2016

Dustin Miller
Broker/Market Analyst

 

 

 





RMLS MARKET ACTION FEBRUARY 2016

14 03 2016

scary

News?…..

 

It is in the numbers.  We are starting this year out on price $1000.00 above the highest recorded Average Sales price for 2015.  That is a little scary for Portlanders.  We don’t want to be anywhere near the top or breaking records.  Historically we are always a market which is slow to rise and hanging in the middle.  With this kind of start we need to be thinking about the future and what it holds for us.

200-meters-starting-blocks

Should buyers be more cautious on what they are willing to pay to help reign in the race?  Or, should sellers take the more conservative, but sound financial offer in a multiple offer situation in order to ensure a stable transaction?

 

We will find out in the summer where the prices are usually the highest for us…

off in the distance

 

Compared to Last Year

Inventory down to 1.8 months from 3.0.

Closed sales up 10%.

Pending sales up 9.9%

New listings up 0.4%.

Average Sales Price up 11.3%

Median Sales Price 10.5%

 

Compared to Last Month

Inventory steady at 1.8 months.

Closed sales down 2.5%

Pending sales up 24.2%

New listings up 15%

Average Sales Price up 2.6%

Median Sales Price up 1.6%

 

 

 

The Full Report  February Market Action 2016

 

Dustin Miller

Real Estate Market Analyst





October 2014 Portland Market Action

14 10 2014
Decent Waters Ahead

Decent Waters Ahead

The conversation recently seems to be leaning on a small downturn for the numbers in September 2014. Yes, we dropped from month-to-month, which only seems reasonable for the season rolling into the Fall and Winter. So far this year, we have appreciated 7.4% for the average sales price and 7.5% for the median.

In looking back at August 2007, when we had a peak of average sales price at $366,900 and the median was $300,000, the inventory level was 6.2 months versus now at 3.1 months. That 3.1 number is closely associated with May of 2006. The closest volume this current report reflects is the pending sales numbers at 2,551—August 2007 there were 2,447! The big difference is the volume of year-to-date homes available for sale…

Balanced Market

Balanced Market

August 2007

New listings        Pending Sales                 Closed Sales
43,567                  21,339                               20,607

September 2014
New listings       Pending Sales                   Closed Sales
31,111                   22,324                                20,652

That is why we are at 3.1 months of inventory.

Compared to Last Year
Inventory down to 3.1 months.
Closed sales up 10.2%.
Pending sales up 15%
New listings up 6.1%.
Average Sales Price up 6.6%
Median Sales Price 5.4%

Compared to Last Month

Closed sales down 8%
Pending sales down 5.7%
New listings down 13.4%
Average Sales Price Down 0.6%
Median Sales Price Down 2.0%

 

The Full Report Here:

October 14, 2014 RMLS Market Action

The waters ahead look more like a normal marketplace for all...

The waters ahead look more like a normal marketplace for all…

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Anaylst