March 2011 Complete Portland Metro Real Estate Report

19 03 2011

Spring is HERE!

 

This is the news we have been waiting for…  yes, it is seasonal to some degree, but the numbers this month show a considerable increase versus the rolling average in activity.  The daffodils woke up the buyers in this market and got them into the marketplace in the last 30 days.

 Big numbers such as a 38.9% increase in sales for Northeast Portland pending sales are very encouraging.  Go down the list for SE Portland pending sales, Milwaukie/Gladstone both pending and sold sales, Lake Oswego pending and solds and West Portland had a great win almost across the board ($500-$600K took a hit as well as above $900K).  Overall the sales numbers were very encouraging for this report with many positive numbers in the total categories as well as a big jump in the overall activity by 11.4%.  It is emotional out there to say the least!

 Now on pricing, most are still down, but some have increased—yes, I said it, increased!  Areas like Milwaukie/Gladstone pending homes went up 5.92% and Oregon City both pending and sold homes went up in percentage.  And so did Beaverton—they went up 6.38%.  Overall, the market price is down, activity is up, bank-owned homes are increasing in select areas and short sales are a teeter-totter.

Good news for many realtors and their families this month—your kids can have a choice of beef or chicken Top Ramen for lunch while on Spring Break.  No more tuna sandwiches!  Sellers most likely got out and are now walking free from that heavy burden on their backs. And, buyers got their dream home for a little more than cost of a fancy Barbie House at Costco or Cat Corral at Petco.  Oh, and I heard Charlie Sheen was going to forego renewing his real estate license.

 

Enjoy the full report and please feel free to contact me regarding any questions.  I love to talk past, present and future!

Dustin Miller

Broker

Realty Trust Group

Think outside the bowl!

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February 2011 Portland Real Estate Market Action

16 02 2011

Pre-Jump Wheely

It appears we are following suit on inventory in Portland with a huge 62.5% jump in new listings bringing us up 3 ½ months to 11.3 months.  Just like Evel Knievel, this trend is typical for us “new market era” realtors…we’ve seen it before in each year and we know what the other side will look like when we get there.In 2009-2010, we were worse off with almost a 5-month gain.  In 2008-2009, we were up 5.1 months and 2007-2008 was 4.3 months.  Back in the good ‘ole days between 2006-2007 we gained 1.7 months between December and January.

 Compared to Last Year

Inventory down 1.3 months.

Closed sales up 5%.

Pending sales down 3%

New listings dropped 20.5%.

Compared to Last Month

Closed sales down 29.2%

Pending sales up 23.1%

New listings cranked up 62.5%

The Red Pill or The Blue Pill

 The blue pill to swallow is on price.  The red pill is on sales —down 29.2% for closings, but up 23.1% for pending sales.  That fuels the figures for next month’s market action in a good direction. 

$ Compared to Last Year

Ave. Price down 11.9%

Med.Price down 10.4%.

$ Compared to Last Month

Ave. Price down 10.5% (practically as much as last year’s total!)

Med. Price 6.5%

 The closed sales figure could be a reflection of “attitude” from people involved in real estate, be it buyers or sellers.  The happy home buyer was confused with inventory and teetering on a new record low from the Case Schiller report recently.  The frustrated seller was on the ropes in the ring of dropping prices, trying to pick up a buyer with only the “slash price” choice if he wanted to sell to a small pool (kiddie-sized, uncomfortably warm and 18” deep) of buyers.

 To end on an up note…this slowing process of price decline will help Portland to land softly in the short-term future.  Although we didn’t think it could go down any further, it did.  The looming interest rates and slow-growing economy will start to point at another new bottom figure soon.  We just won’t know for sure until we get behind it. 

The Full Report

 February 2011 Portland Oregon Market Action





Portland Metro Sales Report for January 2011

19 01 2011

This month’s report shows a tremendous shut down of real estate activity in the last 30 days compared to the 3-month rolling average.  It seems like many of the buyers and sellers just plain gave up trying in the past 30 days or fell into a well.  Like 2008, when I started these reports to find out where the buyers were, the only positive activity seems to be in the lowest price range.

North Portland, Milwaukie, Gladstone, Oregon City, Beaverton, Aloha all had a double digit increase in activity under $200k and one under $400k.  Most of the numbers however are in the red— in some cases drastically.  Pending sales in Hillsboro decreased 81% under the $400k mark.  NE Portland sold homes decreased 90.8% under $300k. 

Other bright spots were sold homes in West Portland in the $400k-$600k mark and the $900k-$1M mark.  Also, NW Washington County saw sold activity rise considerably in the categories under $400k.

Overall, the only price categories which achieved an increase were $900-$1M and under $200k; and, the number of sales are down from the rolling average by 18.7%!

The average price is similar with some more bright spots.  Pending homes in Gresham were the big winner with 29.23% appreciation against the average.  Newly active homes in Hillsboro were the big loser at -19.94%.  Short sales and bank-owned homes are also rising as the prices are still inching downward.  Gresham and Sandy also had a noticeable drop in bank-owned pending homes, vacant homes and short sales.

When down this low for the month, the only way to look is UP.

Complete Portland Metro Report January 2011

Get the full report here.





November 2010 Market Action

16 12 2010

Wow!  Inventory numbers confirm that last year’s Fall market was better than this year’s. 

 

The Numbers

  • Inventory Nov. 2009 was 7.1 months and was 10.2 months for this report.
  • Pending sales up 7.4% over Nov. 2009 and down 12.6% from Nov. 2010.
  • Closed sales down 28.7% over November 2009 and down only 1% from November 2010.
  • Average sale price is down 0.5% from Nov. 2010 and down 1.8% from last month.
  • Median sale price is down 2.5% from last year and 0.2% from last month.
  • 12 houses pending over $1M pending and only 5 closed in the past 30 days. If these all close in 30 days we could see a significant price improvement in the average sales price and less of one in the median sale price.
  • Time on the market is up over last month by 6.5% but holding nicely at -7.4% for the year.  This indicates listings being better priced up front.

 

Hold on or put your hands in the air – your choice.  The ride apparently is not over yet even though Ben Bernake said we were done in September 2009 and Mark Zandi of Moody’s said in February 2010.

November 2010 Market Action