February 28, 2017 Case-Shiller Report

28 02 2017

why-slow-steady-wins-race-1

Number 2 again… Well, as I said in last month’s report, it is the best place to be for any competitor going into the big game. Most eyes are on number one—who is Seattle in this case.

The best news coming out of this report, which is a little interesting for David Blitzer’s analysis, is the insight to volatility over the course of the last 25 years, specifically the recent boom-to-bust-to-boom.  Blitzer looked at both the Seattle and Portland markets and found the higher end properties (over $532,716) were less volatile than the lower end (under $335,111) over the years.

…“Another factor supporting rising home prices is mortgage rates. A 30-year fixed rate mortgage today is 4.2% compared to the 6.4% average since 1990. Another indicator that home price levels are normal can be seen in the charts of Seattle and Portland OR. In the boom-bust of 2005-2009, prices of low, medium, and high-tier homes moved together, while in other periods, including now, the tiers experienced different patterns,” said David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

tortoise-hare

 

All in all, we are moving upward slowly and steadily and that is how we have done it for the past 50 years.  Obviously we have had some bumps along the way, but, in general, it has been a slow climb upward.

 

In the coming month I will post an analysis on the home prices regarding the past 12 years and be comparing the highs and lows as well as the times of year they happened.  Stay tuned!

Understatement Of The Year!

“One factor behind rising home prices is low inventory. While sales of existing single family homes passed five million units at annual rates in January, the highest since 2007, the inventory of homes for sales remains quite low with a 3.6 month supply,” said Blitzer.

Portland is currently at 1.7 months of supply and yearning for more.  In fact, we have only had 2 or more months of inventory in only 5 occasions in the past 2 years.

ed-aq002_blinde_g_20121031182754

S&P Case-Shiller Numbers for December 2016

 

National

  • 8% up from last year
  • 2% up from last month

20 city—(Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, LasVegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco,  Seattle, Tampa, Washington.)

  • 9% up from last year
  • 3% up from last month

10 city—(Boston, Chicago, Denver, Vegas, LA, Florida, N.Y., San Diego, Miami, San Francisco)

  • 9% up from last year
  • 3% up from last month

 

Portland

10% up from last year

0.3% up from last month

 

Download the Case-Shiller Report here:case-shiller-february-28-2017

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Portland Metro Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group

 

 

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PORTLAND MARKET ACTION FEBRUARY 14, 2014

17 02 2014

Inventory is still going down and now folks are getting a little restless. Since I covered inventory last month, I thought I would dig a little deeper on supply and demand. The question I asked is “What would happen if we took all the listings which took over 200 days on the market to sell?” After all, two houses sold over 1000 days on the market and a bunch under that. Just as a $1M listing can skew average sales price, these sluggish listings can skew the “actual” days on the market.

Tickle Me Elmo Demand 1996

What I found out is what I thought, the numbers would increase. By eliminating the 121 pending sales and 69 closed sales which took 200 days or longer to sell, these are the results for the last 30 days as of February 16 (which adds 2 weeks to the results):

Pending sales
Total = 1853
Average Sales Price = $319,889
Days on the Market = 43

Closed Sales
Total = 1112
Average Sales Price = $327,508                                 Days on the Market = 53

Compare these numbers to the February RMLS Market Action

Average Sales Price = $10,308 or 3.25% more
Days on the Market = 44.33% more

That is what I thought might be the case after talking with my fellow brokers throughout the area. The average market time for a property really feels like 53 more than it does 96 and even that is a stretch for our emotions. It feels like Alec Baldwin in breathing down our necks…

glengarry

The bottom line for all you boomers out there looking to downsize, get your house on the market now. The spring is an unknown which could work against you. You have buyers now who want in your doors.  More inventory hitting the market at the same time, drives prices down.  The waiting place for them is really rough.

the_waiting_place

Compared to Last Year
Inventory down to 4.1 months.
Closed sales up 3.9%.
Pending sales up 6.3%
New listings up 5.9%.
Average Sales Price up 10.3%
Median Sales Price up 6.9%

Compared to Last Month
Closed sales down 21.7%
Pending sales up 36.6%
New listings up 93.8%
Average Sales Price up 2.8%
Median Sales Price down 0.9%

View The Full Report Here: Portland Market Action February 2014

Dustin Miller

Broker / Market Analyst





Case-Shiller Home Prices January 28, 2013 Report

28 01 2014
The Deschutes River Canyon

The Deschutes River Canyon

We keep going up and up, maybe just a little bit, but we keep going up.

“Home prices continue to rise despite last May’s jump in mortgage interest rates. Mortgage applications for purchase were up in recent weeks confirming home builders’ optimism shown by the NAHB survey. ..While housing will make further contributions to the economy in 2014, the pace of price gains is likely to slow during the year,” said David Blitzer, Chairman of the S&P Case-Shiller Indices.

This means they are trending in a positive direction headed into winter (this report covers November 2013), which typically is a slow time of the season.  What is appears to be trending toward is a steady up and down this winter by small percentages here and there.  It is nothing to freak out about;Freaking out and, not worth getting overly excited about as well.  It appears we are learning our lesson from the last time prices began to increase dramatically.  This is a typical plateau for the nation.  Perhaps, we may stay here throughout 2014.  It is hard to say with the factors of inflation, mortgage rates, jobs and the economy.

 

Portland is at May 2005 levels for this report.  We also hit this number in January 2010 when the market was declining and again between February and March 2013. For this report, Portland is down for the month of -0.3% but up for the year of 12.5%.  This is the middle of the pack for the nation between the low of 6% for New York and the high of 27.3% for Las Vegas.

 

Once again, stay calm.  This report is if anything very encouraging for near winter numbers.  The increases are not hurling us toward another bubble.

 

The Full Report Here: The January 28 CS Report

cat calm

 

 

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst

 (A cat photo to sooth the soul)

 





November 2013 Portland Market Action

14 11 2013

Breaking it Up and Down

Hey, it has been a good month for sales in Portland.  The pending sales from last month brought up the numbers of closed sales for this month.  However, everything seemed to be down month-to-month from September to October reports. What is that all aboout?

So how about getting the positive, iffy and negative from this report for the month (last year, of course, is all up and not very indicative of anything yet)…

plus

Positive: 

Inventory is down to 3.4 months heading into the late Fall and Winter.  Great news for those houses currently on the market— “Someone will have to buy you because you are practically the only choice.”

iffy

Iffy:

Pending sales are down.  This means closed sales will be most likely down next month which could be typically attributed to a “seasonal” change.  The new listings being down is also a hard read—it could be to up sales, but usually listings continue to pour in at a decent pace.  Market time crept up this past month by 4 days so that isn’t it.  More will be revealed next month as we ease into late Fall and early Winter.

negative

Negative:

Sales prices have been ticking down about 1% per month for the past 2 months.  With inventory low, this is unusual but not serious.  It may simply mean, the sellers out there are willing to sell a little lower to make a change quicker.  The effect is seasonal monthly, but on an annual basis it will begin to level off the national sales numbers we will be seeing in the next few months.  Right now we are at 10.4% and 11% for the average and median sales price change from last year.  That is pretty healthy for our area and any market we have seen in the past decade.

 

Compared to Last Year

Inventory down to 3.4 months.

Closed sales up 4.1%.

Pending sales down 4.2%

New listings up 5%.

Average Sales Price up 10.4%

Median Sales Price up 11%

 

Compared to Last Month

Closed sales up 1.4%

Pending sales down 2.4 %

New listings down 13.3%

Average Sales Price down 1%

Median Sales Price down 1.8%

 

View The Full Report Here:  RMLS November 2013 Market Action

 

Dustin Miller

Broker / Market Analyst





CoreLogic Home Price Index November 5, 2013 Report

5 11 2013

YawnAre we yawning yet?  Corelogic, Portland RMLS and the Case-Shiller Report are all telling us we are up about 12%.  We are trying to find a nugget each time with new news to let you know that the real estate market is trending upward.

How about a quick report on Corelogic first and then I will give you the rundown on each of these reports to make better sense of them.

The Corelogic national index including distressed homes has been going up slowly every month since October 2012 and the annual rate has been going up since March 2012.

Oregon posted a 13.55% appreciation including distressed sales and 12.32% appreciation excluding distressed sales between Sept.  2012 – Sept. 2013.

Nationally Including Distressed Sales

Up 12% in Price from previous year—Sept. 2012

Up 0.2% in price from previous month—Aug. 2012

Nationally Excluding Distressed Sales

Up 10.8% in Price from previous year—Sept. 2012

Up 0.3% in price from previous month—Aug. 2012

National Prediction Including Distressed sales for Oct. 2013

Up 10.5% in Price from previous year—October 2013

Up 0.3% in price from previous month—October 2013

National Prediction Excluding Distressed sales for October

Up 11.2% in Price from previous year—October 2012

Up 0.1% in Price from previous month—Oct. 2013

The CoreLogic Home Price Index tracks 30 years of repeat sales transactions for the same homes over time for both distressed and non-distressed properties.  The data reflects the results of the month prior and a rolling three month data index.   This is different than the National Association of Realtors Report who is one month behind but tracks all home sales as well as pending statistics for a three-month rolling index as well.  And, the Case-Schiller Report reports data 2 months back and a rolling three-month data index of all homes sales.  CoreLogic believes this unique system of tracking is slightly more accurate as to home price appreciation and depreciation due to the tracking of the very same homes.  The Portland RMLS report tracks the previous month of sales (one month back) compared with the previous month as well as the previous year.  Corelogic is the only published report which posts predictions for the next month and the following year.

slow and steady

The full report:corelogic_hpi_september_2013

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Analyst

Realty Trust Group





October 2013 RMLS Portland Market Action

11 10 2013

So, let’s start with commonalities today—Seasonal Changes.  Every year (except last year) in the past 6 years, new listings have gone down between September and October Market Action Reports.  Back away from the sharp objects…

No. No.The wording in the Market Action from RMLS is telling you this is the strongest September for new listings since 2010.  What they don’t understand is that lots of new listings rarely translate to being strong or weak.  If we had really low inventory then a flood of new listings might be considered “strong” or good news.  Many times this is simply a realtor cancelling a listing and bringing it back on as a different number for the same listing.

So, the rest of the report shows a little of the up and down we have been experiencing politically and financially in our country.  We are a fickle group as a whole, so the news might be swaying the market results more than anything from one year to the next.  (See the table below.)  Drops and gains year-to-year between September and October Reports are common in the past 6 years.

Month to Month Comparison for October 2013

The really good news is that prices are leveling off.  This shows some normality and balance which creates a comfortable experience for both buyers and sellers.  Everyone has the opportunity to take their own time when buying or selling.  That is comfort food for real estate brokers and mortgage brokers alike!

 

Compared to Last Year

Inventory up to 3.7 months.

Closed sales up 13.9%.

Pending sales up 7.8%

New listings up 19.3%.

Average Sales Price up 12.8%

Median Sales Price 15.4%

 

Compared to Last Month

Closed sales down 17.7%

Pending sales down 15.1 %

New listings down 14.5%

Average Sales Price down 1.4%

Median Sales Price down 0.7%

 

 

 

View The Full Report Here:  Portland Market Action October 2013

 

And, breathe deeply…it is a beautiful day!

A deep breath

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst

 

 

 





June 2013 Portland Metro Market Action

14 06 2013

The Wave is Here!

Once again a big increase in the Portland Metro numbers as sales continue to rebound. Closed sales are up 26.2% over last month and 27.6% over last year. Average sales prices are up 4.7% over last month and 12.6 over last year. Median sales prices are up 4.9% over last month and 14.9% over last year.

Market time is still well above the “hot” days of old at 85 days on average. In 2005 & 2006 we were closer to 38-50 days average days on the market.

The insight this month is the positive increase in month-to-month sales prices haven’t been seen since back in April 2006 where we hit a 5.42% increase in average sales price. Well, we saw it this year a couple times in March 2013 (5.69%) and a record in January 2013 (12.20%). That record in January has not been seen in recent recorded history!

A big concern is also the interest rates coupled with the slow-down in pending sales. Hopefully this isn’t a trend, but a simple glitch. Otherwise, we might see our numbers start a downward trend in the outlying areas of close-in Portland.

Compared to Last Year
Inventory down to 2.5 months.
Closed sales up 27.8%.
Pending sales up 18.1%
New listings up 17.3%.
Average Sales Price up 12.6%
Median Sales Price 14.9%

Compared to Last Month
Closed sales up 26.2%
Pending sales up 1.2% (slowing down due to inventory)
New listings up 5.8% (still couldn’t keep the inventory # from going down)
Average Sales Price Up 4.7%
Median Sales Price Up 4.9%

Keep your finger on the pulse here with me!

The Portland Market

The Full Report Here:  June 2013 RMLS Market Action

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst