March 2018 Portland Market Action

13 04 2018

Portland Prices Align With Arizona Weather!

arizona

If you bought a rental house at the average sales price in December 2017 and rented it the next month in January, you would have covered your $1500 mortgage payments for the year and walked away with $6200 to spare for expenses on that rental for the rest of the year.  If you bought it for the median sales price, you broke even for March.  All your expenses paid; even better if your first payment wasn’t until February 1st.

 

hamburger

So, prices are hotter than a ghost pepper and it barely hit 69 degrees once this year!  Last year’s ceiling is this year’s floor.  I said it last month and the month before and it could not be more true today with this news from the RMLS Market Action for March 2018.

 

 

Hot As Hell

Buckle down for the next six- eight months folks—or, wait until the last week of August—my favorite time of the year for buyers to get a steal from a seller who has to sell as the market comes to a halt at the end of the summer.

 

 

Compared to Last Year

  • Inventory up to 1.6 months from 1.3.
  • Closed sales up 31.3%.
  • Pending sales up 23.8%.
  • New listings up 44.2%.
  • Average Sales Price up 4.1%
  • Median Sales Price up 6.8%

 

Compared to Last Month

  • Inventory down to 1.6 months from 1.9.
  • Closed sales up 31 %
  • Pending sales up 23.8%
  • New listings up 44.2%
  • Average Sales Price up 0.9%
  • Median Sales Price up 2.6%

kiss

 

The Full Report:Market Action March 2018

Dustin Miller

Market Analyst

Windermere Realty Trust

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Portland Metro Market Action 2017

13 01 2018

IMAG7581

Closed sales went down a tick under 1%, Decembers are pretty volatile over the past 5 years.  Last year we went down 29.5%, 2015 was up 25.9%, 2014 was up 15.6 and 2013 was down 2.1%.  This is a tough one to predict with weather and timing.

 

The new listings being down 33.1% is somewhat common and nothing to even lose sleep over, for now.  We always lose headway for December and pick up generally after the first of the year.  Pending sales follow the same trend.

Price is the big one!  December is the month to “figure” out the annual appreciation rate for the common man.  (The stat nerd calculates every month individually and posts different numbers).  The average sales price according to the Market Report is up only 5.6% and the median sales price is up near the expected 8.6%.  (Stat nerd came up with 2.8% for the average if you simply measure January’s price to December’s Price and 8.59% if you measure 2017’s low to high average sales price).  The Median Sales Price fared better January-December with 8.57% and high to low as 12.88%.   Which is really how it should be done.

  • Compared to Last Year
  • Inventory up to 1.6 months from 1.3.
  • Closed sales down 10.3%.
  • Pending sales even from the year prior.
  • New listings up 13.8%.
  • Average Sales Price up 5.6%
  • Median Sales Price up 8.6%

Compared to Last Month

  • Inventory down to 1.6 months from 1.9.
  • Closed sales down 1.6 %
  • Pending sales down 25.9%
  • New listings down 33.1%
  • Average Sales Price down 0.8%
  • Median Sales Price up 0.8%

Interested in a unique measure of a decade?  From the peak in 2007 to the low in 2011 (when we lost about 30% of our equity) to the high in 2017, Portland has gained 21.94% for the average sales price since 2007 and 31.67% for the median sales price!  So if you bought high in 2007, lost your shirt but not your house in 2011 and are looking to sell in Portland today…bankrupt

…on average, your home is worth about 20-30% more than it was then. That’s about 2-3% a year as we have done for the 3 decades before 2000 in Portland.

win big

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group

 

                                   The Full Report Here:   Portland Metro Market Action December 2017





April 19, 2017 Real Estate Market Report

19 04 2017

dentist office posterPortland Metro Market Action Report

Well, well, well…a price jump of 6% in a single month!  Looks huge compared to the NAR’s national average for the entire country, which is the Non-Seasonally Adjusted figure of 5.8% from last year!

New listings jumped up as well by 43%, however, different than last March, the pending sales gobbled them right up with a parallel jump of 28.5% compared to last year which was only a 10.4% jump from the previous month.bronco

The other news is the median sales price for the Portland Metro Area being at $370,000!  Last year the peak number was $362,000 in June.  If we are above that number for 2017 already, you can forecast this year’s number to peak again higher easily.  Hang on!  The ride is not over yet…

The largest dilemma facing our industry is inventory—we need more houses on the market to balance out the demand facing supply.  If you are leaving the area, you will have no problem selling your home in a week if correctly priced.  However, if you are relocating to another spot here in the Portland the challenge to find a spot to land is very Hamster hangs on a ropedifficult.  Only a licensed professional agent will be able to help you navigate this landscape—trust me.  The other very difficult challenge is finding the ability to purchase without selling your home first.  This market will very rarely accept a contingent offer on the closing of your home first.  Back in the heyday of real estate in 2005-2006 bridge loans provided this ability constantly.  Now, there are only a handful of companies doing this and, once again, that is where an agent will be able to assist in locating one who fits your needs.

 

Median By Portland Area                % up from Last Year

Beaverton                     $328,000         13.1

Tigard                            $405,000         11.0

Lake Oswego                $530,000         11.6

Milwaukie                     $358,000          8.8

Oregon City                  $355,000         10.1

West Portland               $499,900         11.1

North Portland             $385,000         10.0

Northeast Portland      $390,000         15.0

Southeast Portland      $322,000         11.0

goat climb

RMLS Market Action March 2017

Compared to Last Year

  • Inventory even from 1.3 months from 1.3 months.
  • Closed sales down -2.8%.
  • Pending sales down -1.1%
  • New listings up 5.7%.
  • Average Sales Price up 11.2%
  • Median Sales Price up 10.4%

Compared to Last Month

  • Inventory down to 1.3 months from 1.9.
  • Closed sales up 49.4%
  • Pending sales up 28.5%
  • New listings up 43%
  • Average Sales Price up 6%
  • Median Sales Price up 4.7%

Portland Metro Market Action March 2017

Dustin Miller

Broker/Portland Metro Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group





December 2016 End of Year RMLS Market Action Compared to National Reporting

17 01 2017

2017

Well, let’s wrap it up with a summary of bullet points for 2016.  All in all, we are in a good position for the real estate market in 2017.  Whether we end up breaking more records or dropping to the middle of the pack like the many years prior, an increase of even small amounts is still an increase and; frankly, much healthier in the long run.  Portland, as well as the state, has always been under the radar for home prices hiding in the middle of the national numbers near center.  See where being in the top 3 has got us this year…

News:

  • Oregon is the 6th largest growing state according to U.S. Census Bureau—80% from out-of-state folks, 20% from new births exceeding deaths.

Pocket watch in snow, New Year 2017 greeting card

December 2016 S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller—numbers from October 2016

  • Portland at 10.3% average sales price appreciation, #2 in the Nation.
  • All 20 cities measured saw a month-to-month increase this year.
  • Nationally we are on a healthy plateau around 5.6% unlike we have seen in the past 20 years. We are neither rising quickly nor declining quickly.

Corelogic Equity Report Q3 2016

  • Oregon averaged $26K in equity gain since 2015.
  • Oregon average is 52.4% of loan-to-value of all homes mortgaged.

Corelogic Home Price Insights Report –numbers from October 2016

  • Connecticut was the only state which showed a negative for price appreciation year-over-year at -0.7%.
  • The National figure for year-over –year is 6.7% on average.
  • Oregon experienced 9.9% year-over-year appreciation (#2 between Washington and Colorado) and forecast next year to drop to 5.3%.

2017-roll-forward

RMLS Market Action End of Year 2016

Compared to Last Year

  • Inventory up to 1.3 months from 1.2.
  • Closed sales down -3.3%.
  • Pending sales down -9.2%
  • New listings down -7.6%.
  • Average Sales Price up 8.6%
  • Median Sales Price up 9.3%

Compared to Last Month

  • Inventory down to 1.3 months from 1.8.
  • Closed sales up 7.7%
  • Pending sales down -22.5%
  • New listings down -31.7%
  • Average Sales Price up 0.6%
  • Median Sales Price down -0.5%

RMLS Market Action December 2016: december-2016-market-action

hood-sunrise

Dustin Miller
Broker/Analyst

 

 





Market Shift Confirmed This Month In Portland

15 09 2016
little-richard

Happy Birthday Tutti Fruitti

The news as we expected has come…just a little earlier than we might have thought.    I was thinking more for the September numbers this year, though, in speaking with my colleagues, we all felt it coming.  Rocking #1 on the Case Shiller Index for price (3 months back) Portland finally saw the cooling off period start last month.  The bubble didn’t burst. It is like a 10-year-old boy slowly letting out the air and making that annoying squeaking sound as it screams between the thin latex layers.

 

Freak out? little-richard-magnificen-001

No.

Adjust. And adapt.way-back

 

The average sales price of -1.7% and median sales price of -0.6% between July and August of this year is the concern for all who are still on the market today.  I thought I might find more surprising data, but over the past 5 years our summer months have been very spotty on these month-to-month numbers.  In July 2015 we went up 3.0% and 3.1% for the average and median and in July 2015 we went down -0.1% and -0.6%.  It has been like this every summer since 2012 where one month is up and another is down during the summer.  The significance to this summer is our double digit appreciation leading up to it and what these numbers may do this Fall and Winter to either keep it up or balance it out.

dong

 

 

Compared to Last Year

  • Inventory unchanged 1.9 months from 1.9.
  • Closed sales down -3.1%.
  • Pending sales down -0.7%
  • New listings up 8.3%.
  • Average Sales Price up 9.7%
  • Median Sales Price up 11.5%

 

Compared to Last Month

  • Inventory unchanged at 1.9 months from 1.9.
  • Closed sales up 8.1%
  • Pending sales down 0.7%
  • New listings down -3.9%
  • Average Sales Price down -1.7%
  • Median Sales Price down -1.6%

The Full Report Here: portland-metro-market-action-august-2016

 

Dustin Miller

Market Analyst

Portland, Oregon





RMLS MARKET ACTION MARCH 2015

16 03 2015
Days of 2008...

Days of 2008…

In December 2007, the real estate market was issued a threatening letter from the economy that the water would be shut off due to non-payment.  By December 2008, the water was shut off and we had 810 homes pending and 987 homes sold.  The market dried up to the equivalent of a chile…not even a raisin.

Chilis

Well, here we are today, after the water was turned back on in 2012 went from a trickle to moderate flow through March 2015.

Low Flow

February 2015 pending sales volume reached 2534 and the closed sales hit 1648.  This is only 347 homes off the closed number for February 2005!

Enjoying the moderation

Of course the pending homes were huge in that year at 3209 compared to this year at 2534. I calculated my own early numbers for March and we are at 2682 for the pending sales 30 days back from the 15th of March.

Corelogic’s Foreclosure Report just reported that Oregon has 1.6% of its homes in foreclosure, putting it on the bottom third of the nation.  Normally we fall higher up in the middle for national averages.

Corelogic’s Home Price Index had Oregon at #5 in the report for the whole nation in price appreciation compared to the other 49 states; and, 8.7% away from our peak prices in July 2007.

Fountains

Corelogic’s Marketpulse Report  has at #10 in the nation since 1976 for Minimum, Maximum and Current home price appreciation.

The flow may not be gushing like little Joel Miller drinking from the firehose in UHF circa 1989, but it certainly has recovered nicely for Spring 2015 in Portland, Oregon.

Compared to Last Year

  • Inventory down to 3 months.
  • Closed sales up 12.3%.
  • Pending sales up 37.1% !
  • New listings up 22.5%.
  • Average Sales Price up 0.8%
  • Median Sales Price 2.2%

Compared to Last Month

  • Closed sales up 11.6%
  • Pending sales up 10.5%
  • New listings up 4.4%
  • Average Sales Price Down 0.4%
  • Median Sales Price Up 1.8%

The Full Reports Below:

RMLS March 2015 Market Action

Corelogic Marketpulse Feb 2015

Corelogic HPI Jan 2015

Corelogic Foreclosure Report Jan 2015

Dustin Miller

Real Estate Market Analyst





Case-Shiller Home Prices February 24, 2015 Report

6 03 2015
How do you see it?

              How do you see it?

Well Mr. Blitzer and I definitely seem to have different perspectives on these national reports of recent days.  He was so positive in 2013, I miss it.  Perhaps the extreme 2014-2015 winter is shaping his sunny opinions for the future.

“The housing recovery is faltering. While prices and sales of existing homes are close to normal, construction and new home sales remain weak. Before the current business cycle, any time housing starts were at their current level of about one million at annual rates, the economy was in a recession” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The softness in housing is despite favorable conditions elsewhere in the economy: strong job growth, a declining unemployment rate, continued low interest rates and positive consumer confidence.”

The collective indices are all under 5% for the one year change but most individual cities are up above that number for the year.  Many East Coast and Mid-West Cities are under 3%.  They put us back to autumn 2004 levels at this point.

half glass

New construction starts are only one measuring stick for “housing recovery” that Blitzer is referring to in this report.  So many different factors go into shaping that number today versus 8 years ago before the recession started.  For the Portland Metro Area, for instance, all of the governments in the area thought raising construction fees astronomically would be a good solution to their budget shortfalls.  These new charges are called “system development charges” and along with a strict Urban Growth Boundary, have kept Portland pretty low for new construction starts.  The state posted 0.03 growth numbers in Q4 of 2014 for new construction related indicators, however our sales prices and volumes are considered to be positive regionally.

Portland is staying the course, gradually climbing up in prices and not rapidly fluctuating up and down.  This spring prices may spike in March and April as the weather improves along with income.  We are between March and April 2006 as far as our Case-Shiller Indicator number of 170.70 in this report.

Stay tuned for the next report featuring the MarketPulse and Home Price Index Reports from CoreLogic, they both paint a totally different perspective on housing starts for 2015.

glass half

The Full Report Here: case shiller Feb 2015

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst