Where is the Million Dollar Market? Or the Six Million Dollar Market? Only a Lee Majors fan would know.

29 07 2018

steve austin 1

Right now we have the most homes for sale, the greatest number of pending homes and the greatest number of sold homes in the Portland Metro Market’s history.  It is the time to assess your home’s value.

The average days on the market time is down 7.8% from last year and all of the previous years.  This is from the correctly priced homes coming on the market and selling quickly in the luxury market perspective.  They are still selling for less than asking around 96% in June 2018 of listing price though.

So, if you are listed at $2.25M and sell for $90,000 less than that, will you be o.k.?  Is this a big victory after you paid $1.4M ten years ago and made some big improvements and kept it up?

Prices are going down in the luxury market.  This is news most agents won’t tell you.  Why, because no one studies these numbers more than me.  Numbers are a dangerously truthful way at presenting information on the luxury market. The average sales price over $1M has decreased 4% from last year in Portland.

They are still better prices from 4 years ago generally appreciating at a $125,000 per year in four years.Six-Million-Dollar-Man-six-million-dollar-man-659516_290_367

And…inventory is way down.  I mean way down.  18.9% from last year and half of what it was 4 years ago.  That would generally mean a rise in prices, not so in our luxury market.  Under $1M in Portland, Oregon and you are sitting on 2.1 months of inventory and rising prices with it.  Over $1M and the data leans against normal conventions…why?

This is one area where the perplexing low supply and high demand has not driven up prices.  It is a fascinating group which has been playing picky on both sides.

Here is a quick table of the last 15 years of numbers in the Luxury Market

June 2018 (Quarterly)

Homes For Sale in June 2018 (End of Qtr): 587 units.

Up 37.5% compared to last quarter
Up 21.3% compared to last year

Home Closed in June 2018 (Quarterly): 241 units.

Up 95.9% compared to last quarter
Up 27.5% compared to last year

Home Placed under Contract in June 2018 (Quarterly): 264 units.

Up 45.1% compared to last quarter
Up 31.3% compared to last year

 

Up in all categories over 5 and 15 years is the hard evidence.  Yes, the prices are slowing down, but the sales are up!  Take advantage of this market today.  And be glad you are not in Manhattan…which is probably where the hype started.

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Portland Metro Market Action 2017

13 01 2018

IMAG7581

Closed sales went down a tick under 1%, Decembers are pretty volatile over the past 5 years.  Last year we went down 29.5%, 2015 was up 25.9%, 2014 was up 15.6 and 2013 was down 2.1%.  This is a tough one to predict with weather and timing.

 

The new listings being down 33.1% is somewhat common and nothing to even lose sleep over, for now.  We always lose headway for December and pick up generally after the first of the year.  Pending sales follow the same trend.

Price is the big one!  December is the month to “figure” out the annual appreciation rate for the common man.  (The stat nerd calculates every month individually and posts different numbers).  The average sales price according to the Market Report is up only 5.6% and the median sales price is up near the expected 8.6%.  (Stat nerd came up with 2.8% for the average if you simply measure January’s price to December’s Price and 8.59% if you measure 2017’s low to high average sales price).  The Median Sales Price fared better January-December with 8.57% and high to low as 12.88%.   Which is really how it should be done.

  • Compared to Last Year
  • Inventory up to 1.6 months from 1.3.
  • Closed sales down 10.3%.
  • Pending sales even from the year prior.
  • New listings up 13.8%.
  • Average Sales Price up 5.6%
  • Median Sales Price up 8.6%

Compared to Last Month

  • Inventory down to 1.6 months from 1.9.
  • Closed sales down 1.6 %
  • Pending sales down 25.9%
  • New listings down 33.1%
  • Average Sales Price down 0.8%
  • Median Sales Price up 0.8%

Interested in a unique measure of a decade?  From the peak in 2007 to the low in 2011 (when we lost about 30% of our equity) to the high in 2017, Portland has gained 21.94% for the average sales price since 2007 and 31.67% for the median sales price!  So if you bought high in 2007, lost your shirt but not your house in 2011 and are looking to sell in Portland today…bankrupt

…on average, your home is worth about 20-30% more than it was then. That’s about 2-3% a year as we have done for the 3 decades before 2000 in Portland.

win big

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group

 

                                   The Full Report Here:   Portland Metro Market Action December 2017





April 19, 2017 Real Estate Market Report

19 04 2017

dentist office posterPortland Metro Market Action Report

Well, well, well…a price jump of 6% in a single month!  Looks huge compared to the NAR’s national average for the entire country, which is the Non-Seasonally Adjusted figure of 5.8% from last year!

New listings jumped up as well by 43%, however, different than last March, the pending sales gobbled them right up with a parallel jump of 28.5% compared to last year which was only a 10.4% jump from the previous month.bronco

The other news is the median sales price for the Portland Metro Area being at $370,000!  Last year the peak number was $362,000 in June.  If we are above that number for 2017 already, you can forecast this year’s number to peak again higher easily.  Hang on!  The ride is not over yet…

The largest dilemma facing our industry is inventory—we need more houses on the market to balance out the demand facing supply.  If you are leaving the area, you will have no problem selling your home in a week if correctly priced.  However, if you are relocating to another spot here in the Portland the challenge to find a spot to land is very Hamster hangs on a ropedifficult.  Only a licensed professional agent will be able to help you navigate this landscape—trust me.  The other very difficult challenge is finding the ability to purchase without selling your home first.  This market will very rarely accept a contingent offer on the closing of your home first.  Back in the heyday of real estate in 2005-2006 bridge loans provided this ability constantly.  Now, there are only a handful of companies doing this and, once again, that is where an agent will be able to assist in locating one who fits your needs.

 

Median By Portland Area                % up from Last Year

Beaverton                     $328,000         13.1

Tigard                            $405,000         11.0

Lake Oswego                $530,000         11.6

Milwaukie                     $358,000          8.8

Oregon City                  $355,000         10.1

West Portland               $499,900         11.1

North Portland             $385,000         10.0

Northeast Portland      $390,000         15.0

Southeast Portland      $322,000         11.0

goat climb

RMLS Market Action March 2017

Compared to Last Year

  • Inventory even from 1.3 months from 1.3 months.
  • Closed sales down -2.8%.
  • Pending sales down -1.1%
  • New listings up 5.7%.
  • Average Sales Price up 11.2%
  • Median Sales Price up 10.4%

Compared to Last Month

  • Inventory down to 1.3 months from 1.9.
  • Closed sales up 49.4%
  • Pending sales up 28.5%
  • New listings up 43%
  • Average Sales Price up 6%
  • Median Sales Price up 4.7%

Portland Metro Market Action March 2017

Dustin Miller

Broker/Portland Metro Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group





January 31, 2017 Case-Shiller Report

1 02 2017

mt-hood-sunrise

First and foremost, the numbers from this report are from data in November 2016.  Secondly, Portland landed at #2 again for this month which is still very strong for the national average.

 

“With the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rising at about 5.5% annual rate over the last two-and-a-half years and having reached a new all-time high recently, one can argue that housing has recovered from the boom-bust cycle that began a dozen years ago, says David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices…disposable income has risen at about a 2.5% annual rate for 30 months.”

january-trees-highlights

Oak Grove Fork Clackamas River

What does this really mean?  Well, the encouraging part is that we are going up at a slow and steady pace, even in the late fall months, which is seasonally unexpected.  This is due mostly to our very low inventory for the area (1.2 months).  Supply is low and demand is still high for Portland, Oregon.  As I read in the CoreLogic MarketPulse this month, there is a large outward migration still flowing from California counties.  In Los Angeles and Orange counties, the outward migration is going to outlying counties due to affordability.  The median sales price for a home in Orange County is $639,000 and $544,000 for Los Angeles County.

 

“…about 24 out of the 100 households were buying outside of the county (Los Angeles),” said Archana Pradhan, Economist for CoreLogic…About one-third of the net outflow, representing 6 percent of current residents who want to buy, are buying out of state.”

Microsoft Word - hood trillium lake photo.docx

Holly Fischer Photography

 

 

 

Portland’s median home price was $349,900 in December 2016.  This fact is perhaps not bringing in refugees from other states at an alarming rate, but it surely looks good for those seeking to relocate and get more home for the price.  That amount of demand, no matter how small or large, is putting pressure on those in-state who are also competing for the rare low number of home in inventory for the Portland Metropolitan area—1.2 months!

 

S&P Case Shiller Numbers

National

  • 6% up from last year
  • 2% up from last month

20 city—(Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, LasVegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco,  Seattle, Tampa, Washington.)

  • 3% up from last year
  • 2% up from last month

10 city—(Boston, Chicago, Denver, Vegas, LA, Florida, N.Y., San Diego, Miami, San Francisco)

  • 5% up from last year
  • 2% up from last month

 

Portland

10.1% up from last year

0.2% up from last month

 

Case-Shiller Report case-shiller-january-31-2017

 

tracks-in-the-snow

My hike in the snow last spring

Dustin Miller

Broker/Portland Metro Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group





September 27, 2016 Case Shiller Report

27 09 2016

fall-is-coming

Once again, Portland leads the nation in year-over-year appreciation for the sixth month in a row.  Not a surprise based on the July numbers for us since summer is generally always the hottest price appreciation month each year.  That being said, Portland numbers are slowing down based on the RMLS Market Action for August numbers.  The Market Action had Portland go down in August by 1.7%.  That is most likely a prediction that the numbers will go down as well for the Case Shiller Index next month.

However, we most likely will make the top three next month for the Case Shiller Index year-over-year appreciation even if the number goes down.  Relax and let fall settle in.  Cozy up to a warm blanket and hot cup of coffee as the market cools a bit seasonally as it always does.  It does not mean that the home you just purchased a month or so ago has specifically lost value.  Even if it does, we will bounce back as always in the Spring.  Don’t let fear settle in as long term appreciation in real estate is always your best investment.

coffee

Finally, the chart Case Shiller put on the report this month for peak-to-trough and rebound percentages is the most interesting part of this report for Portland.  I added Portland into the chart below for a little perspective.

S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Indices Peak to Trough Analysis

2006 Peak 2012 Trough   Current  
Index Level Date Level Date From Peak % Level From Trough % From Peak %
National 184.62 Jul-06 134.01 Feb-12 27.4% 183.57 37.0% -0.6%
20-City 206.52 Jul-06 134.07 Mar-12 35.1% 190.91 42.4% -7.6%
10-City 229.29 Jun-06 146.45 Mar-12 35.3% 204.92 39.9% -9.4%
Portland 186.51 Jul-07 129.01 Mar-12 30.8% 207.46 60.8% 11.2%

Portland was above the national level at its peak a year after the rest of the nation in July 2007 at 186.51.  Then we crashed harder than all the averages in March of 2012 with a low of 129.01.  However, we only crashed 30.8% which was 3.4% above the National Average and below the other two indices.  Then “pow” we rebounded up 60.8% above that low from March 2012 and currently stand 11.2% above our all-time high from July 2007.  So even if we lose a few points, Portland will still remain strong for real estate in the future.  Yes, we will slow down as a typical real estate cycle, but the bubble is highly unlikely due to all the rules and regulations executed in the recession years.

National

  • 1% up from last year
  • 7% up from last month

20 city—(Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, LasVegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco,  Seattle, Tampa, Washington.)

  • 0% up from last year
  • 6% up from last month

10 city—(Boston, Chicago, Denver, Vegas, LA, Florida, N.Y., San Diego, Miami, San Francisco)

  • 2% up from last year
  • 5% up from last month

 

Portland–#26 in population countrywide but included nonetheless. Take note.

  •             12.4% up from last year
  •             1.2% up from last year

linus-peanuts-tease-160211

 

The Full Report Here:case-shiller-september-27-2016

Dustin Miller

Broker/Portland Metro Market Analyst

Realty Trust Group

 

 





Market Shift Confirmed This Month In Portland

15 09 2016
little-richard

Happy Birthday Tutti Fruitti

The news as we expected has come…just a little earlier than we might have thought.    I was thinking more for the September numbers this year, though, in speaking with my colleagues, we all felt it coming.  Rocking #1 on the Case Shiller Index for price (3 months back) Portland finally saw the cooling off period start last month.  The bubble didn’t burst. It is like a 10-year-old boy slowly letting out the air and making that annoying squeaking sound as it screams between the thin latex layers.

 

Freak out? little-richard-magnificen-001

No.

Adjust. And adapt.way-back

 

The average sales price of -1.7% and median sales price of -0.6% between July and August of this year is the concern for all who are still on the market today.  I thought I might find more surprising data, but over the past 5 years our summer months have been very spotty on these month-to-month numbers.  In July 2015 we went up 3.0% and 3.1% for the average and median and in July 2015 we went down -0.1% and -0.6%.  It has been like this every summer since 2012 where one month is up and another is down during the summer.  The significance to this summer is our double digit appreciation leading up to it and what these numbers may do this Fall and Winter to either keep it up or balance it out.

dong

 

 

Compared to Last Year

  • Inventory unchanged 1.9 months from 1.9.
  • Closed sales down -3.1%.
  • Pending sales down -0.7%
  • New listings up 8.3%.
  • Average Sales Price up 9.7%
  • Median Sales Price up 11.5%

 

Compared to Last Month

  • Inventory unchanged at 1.9 months from 1.9.
  • Closed sales up 8.1%
  • Pending sales down 0.7%
  • New listings down -3.9%
  • Average Sales Price down -1.7%
  • Median Sales Price down -1.6%

The Full Report Here: portland-metro-market-action-august-2016

 

Dustin Miller

Market Analyst

Portland, Oregon





Market Shift Coming Faster Than Expected In Portland

12 08 2016

shock

Well the numbers for the July 2016 Portland Metro Market Action came as a little bit of a shock yesterday as we saw the median sales price tick down 1.9% from the previous month in June.  Sales are down by 12.1% which is somewhat expected with low inventory.  The last time we saw this happen was in 2012 when we went down 12.1% as well.  The previous 3 years we have actually increased by 10.2%, 2.3%, and 4.5% for sales from month to month.

batman

However, we have not seen a price drop in the median this large since 2010 went we went down 1.6%.  In 2009 we dropped 13.3% between June and July.  This is a pretty sharp move for the metro area in such a short time when prices generally move slightly up or down during the summer.  In 2015, we went down 0.6% in the same month-to-month period.

33476-ca_029_calvin_hobbes_ponder__65012

 

Compared to Last Year

  • Inventory up to 1.9 months from 1.7.
  • Closed sales down -19.6%.
  • Pending sales down 5.5%
  • New listings up 2.3%.
  • Average Sales Price down 10.3%
  • Median Sales Price up 11.6%

 

Compared to Last Month

  • Inventory up to 1.9 months from 1.5.
  • Closed sales down -12.1%
  • Pending sales down -2.6%
  • New listings down -2.9%
  • Average Sales Price down -1.2%
  • Median Sales Price down -1.9%

arrows

 

The Full Report Here:July 2016 Market Action

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst