Market Shift Confirmed This Month In Portland

15 09 2016
little-richard

Happy Birthday Tutti Fruitti

The news as we expected has come…just a little earlier than we might have thought.    I was thinking more for the September numbers this year, though, in speaking with my colleagues, we all felt it coming.  Rocking #1 on the Case Shiller Index for price (3 months back) Portland finally saw the cooling off period start last month.  The bubble didn’t burst. It is like a 10-year-old boy slowly letting out the air and making that annoying squeaking sound as it screams between the thin latex layers.

 

Freak out? little-richard-magnificen-001

No.

Adjust. And adapt.way-back

 

The average sales price of -1.7% and median sales price of -0.6% between July and August of this year is the concern for all who are still on the market today.  I thought I might find more surprising data, but over the past 5 years our summer months have been very spotty on these month-to-month numbers.  In July 2015 we went up 3.0% and 3.1% for the average and median and in July 2015 we went down -0.1% and -0.6%.  It has been like this every summer since 2012 where one month is up and another is down during the summer.  The significance to this summer is our double digit appreciation leading up to it and what these numbers may do this Fall and Winter to either keep it up or balance it out.

dong

 

 

Compared to Last Year

  • Inventory unchanged 1.9 months from 1.9.
  • Closed sales down -3.1%.
  • Pending sales down -0.7%
  • New listings up 8.3%.
  • Average Sales Price up 9.7%
  • Median Sales Price up 11.5%

 

Compared to Last Month

  • Inventory unchanged at 1.9 months from 1.9.
  • Closed sales up 8.1%
  • Pending sales down 0.7%
  • New listings down -3.9%
  • Average Sales Price down -1.7%
  • Median Sales Price down -1.6%

The Full Report Here: portland-metro-market-action-august-2016

 

Dustin Miller

Market Analyst

Portland, Oregon





Portland Metro March 2016 Market Action

14 04 2016
early harvest

Early Harvest

March is a month of new growth.  First the crocus, then the daffodils and lastly the tulips emerge from the ground along with the new homes coming on the market.  This year it appears that the buyers are beating the animals at gobbling up the new growth on the market.  Closed sales are up over 40% this month.  We are not used to breaking new records in the housing market after the groundhog predicts an early spring.  This market is like harvesting tomatoes in August for Portland!

Tomatoes

Compared to Last Year

  • Inventory down to 1.3 months from 1.9.
  • Closed sales up 4.4%.
  • Pending sales down 9.1%
  • New listings down 5.2%.
  • Average Sales Price up 14.2%
  • Median Sales Price 15.5%

Compared to Last Month

  • Inventory down to 1.3 months.
  • Closed sales up 41.5%
  • Pending sales up 10.4%
  • New listings up 17.7%
  • Average Sales Price up 5.5%
  • Median Sales Price up 6.3%

 

The last time we had a jump this high in a single month was August 2005 of 5.4% for the Average Sales Price and 5.18% for the Median Sales Price.  Which means this is the highest price increase month-to-month in Portland’s recorded history!

lopez

Lopez Lomong

Sure enough, the figures for the average sales price and the median sales price are also the highest we have ever seen in both categories.

Danger

Is it a Bubble? Right now, all indicators are pointing more toward a slowing down to a normal balanced market rather than a burst of a bubble down the road.  Incomes are barely keeping up and regulations have kept a tight rein on unsecured debt in the mortgage-backed securities market.

bubble-burst

The Full Report:  March Market Action 2016

Dustin Miller
Broker/Market Analyst

 

 

 





Case-Shiller Home Prices January 26, 2016 Report

26 01 2016

Dorthy

Wow…

 

Here are the numbers of today’s Case Shiller Report.  Portland is at an all-time high for November 2015.  This is unheard of for a late Fall number ever in our recorded history.  It makes us all wonder what will come up in next month’s report on whether it is lower or higher.  We all expect the number to go down in the Winter, but based on this, it will be somewhat unclear to predict.

Lady

More soon!

Portland  Index

Jul-2007 186.51
Aug-2015 186.51
Nov-2015 189.47

 

National  Index

Jul-2006 184.62
Nov-2007 175.19
Nov-2015 175.71

 

10 City  Index

Jun-2006 226.29
Nov-2015 197.54

 

20 City Index

Jul-2006 206.52
Dec-2007 184.97
Jan-2008 180.68
Nov-2015 182.86

 

Top

 

The Full Report Here: 

Case Shiller January 26, 2015

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Analyst

 





Portland Metro Market Action January 2015

21 01 2015
Plenty of homes for everyone.

Winter 2012 Plenty of homes for everyone.

This is it!  We hit a record low for December 2014 for inventory in the past 8 years.  Portland is currently at 2.3 months of inventory.  This means that if another home does not come on the market today, all of the existing homes would sell in 2.3 months.

Buyer and Seller can live side-by-side in peace.

Buyer and Seller lived side-by-side in peace.

The nearest time we were this low was May of 2013 at 2.5 months.  Before that, we have to go 8 years back to May 2006 when it hit 2.3 months.  With supply this low, we can expect demand to cause the price to increase.  Of course, this isn’t blatantly across the board, but in general, this is considered a seller’s market.

 

Buyers left searching for homes where there are very few.

2014 Buyers left searching for homes where there are very few.

Compared to Last Year

Inventory down to 2.3 months.

Closed sales up 25.6%.

Pending sales up 12.3%

New listings up 15.5%.

Average Sales Price up 7.4%

Median Sales Price 8.5%

Compared to Last Month

Closed sales up 15.6%

Pending sales down 20.3%

New listings down 19.9%

Average Sales Price Down 1.3%

Median Sales Price Up 1.0%

Buyers all have to rush to see the one and only house on the market which fits their needs.

Buyers all have to rush to see the one and only house on the market which fits their needs.

The Full Report: January 2015 RMLS Market Action

Dustin Miller
Broker/Market Analyst





October 2014 Portland Market Action

14 10 2014
Decent Waters Ahead

Decent Waters Ahead

The conversation recently seems to be leaning on a small downturn for the numbers in September 2014. Yes, we dropped from month-to-month, which only seems reasonable for the season rolling into the Fall and Winter. So far this year, we have appreciated 7.4% for the average sales price and 7.5% for the median.

In looking back at August 2007, when we had a peak of average sales price at $366,900 and the median was $300,000, the inventory level was 6.2 months versus now at 3.1 months. That 3.1 number is closely associated with May of 2006. The closest volume this current report reflects is the pending sales numbers at 2,551—August 2007 there were 2,447! The big difference is the volume of year-to-date homes available for sale…

Balanced Market

Balanced Market

August 2007

New listings        Pending Sales                 Closed Sales
43,567                  21,339                               20,607

September 2014
New listings       Pending Sales                   Closed Sales
31,111                   22,324                                20,652

That is why we are at 3.1 months of inventory.

Compared to Last Year
Inventory down to 3.1 months.
Closed sales up 10.2%.
Pending sales up 15%
New listings up 6.1%.
Average Sales Price up 6.6%
Median Sales Price 5.4%

Compared to Last Month

Closed sales down 8%
Pending sales down 5.7%
New listings down 13.4%
Average Sales Price Down 0.6%
Median Sales Price Down 2.0%

 

The Full Report Here:

October 14, 2014 RMLS Market Action

The waters ahead look more like a normal marketplace for all...

The waters ahead look more like a normal marketplace for all…

Dustin Miller

Broker/Market Anaylst





PORTLAND MARKET ACTION FEBRUARY 14, 2014

17 02 2014

Inventory is still going down and now folks are getting a little restless. Since I covered inventory last month, I thought I would dig a little deeper on supply and demand. The question I asked is “What would happen if we took all the listings which took over 200 days on the market to sell?” After all, two houses sold over 1000 days on the market and a bunch under that. Just as a $1M listing can skew average sales price, these sluggish listings can skew the “actual” days on the market.

Tickle Me Elmo Demand 1996

What I found out is what I thought, the numbers would increase. By eliminating the 121 pending sales and 69 closed sales which took 200 days or longer to sell, these are the results for the last 30 days as of February 16 (which adds 2 weeks to the results):

Pending sales
Total = 1853
Average Sales Price = $319,889
Days on the Market = 43

Closed Sales
Total = 1112
Average Sales Price = $327,508                                 Days on the Market = 53

Compare these numbers to the February RMLS Market Action

Average Sales Price = $10,308 or 3.25% more
Days on the Market = 44.33% more

That is what I thought might be the case after talking with my fellow brokers throughout the area. The average market time for a property really feels like 53 more than it does 96 and even that is a stretch for our emotions. It feels like Alec Baldwin in breathing down our necks…

glengarry

The bottom line for all you boomers out there looking to downsize, get your house on the market now. The spring is an unknown which could work against you. You have buyers now who want in your doors.  More inventory hitting the market at the same time, drives prices down.  The waiting place for them is really rough.

the_waiting_place

Compared to Last Year
Inventory down to 4.1 months.
Closed sales up 3.9%.
Pending sales up 6.3%
New listings up 5.9%.
Average Sales Price up 10.3%
Median Sales Price up 6.9%

Compared to Last Month
Closed sales down 21.7%
Pending sales up 36.6%
New listings up 93.8%
Average Sales Price up 2.8%
Median Sales Price down 0.9%

View The Full Report Here: Portland Market Action February 2014

Dustin Miller

Broker / Market Analyst





January 2014 RMLS MARKET ACTION

17 01 2014

inventory Inventory…It really wasn’t a term we used much as brokers 15 years ago.  In fact, the RMLS Market Action did not start publishing the inventory until 2001.

That being said, it is a way to use the concept of supply and demand in a general sense.  If there is high demand with low supply, prices will go up.  If there is high demand with high supply, then prices go down.  If there is low demand and high supply, prices go down.  If there is low demand and low supply prices go down a little slower.

inventory 2

The good thing for us is that this is pretty typical prior to 2006 when the climb in winter inventory numbers started to hit the map.  We have been here many times before and can chaulk it up as a seasonal thing.  Most low numbers in the winter were all relative to the markets they experienced the year before going all the way back to 2001.  This year is no different—inventory may be a cause we can look to for answers as well as they previous 12 months in order to chart the waters ahead.

ship

 

 

Compared to Last Year

Inventory down to 3.2 months.

Closed sales up 1.3%.

Pending sales up 7.2%

New listings up 3.7%.

Average Sales Price up 12.9%

Median Sales Price up 12.8%

 

Compared to Last Month

Closed sales down 2.1%

Pending sales down  18.8%

New listings down 32.5%

Average Sales Price up -3.0%

Median Sales Price up -1.0%

 

 

 

View The Full Report Here: RMLS Market Action Portland Metro Jan 15, 2014

 

Dustin Miller

Broker/ Market Analyst